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Thread: 40 Yard Dash vs SVJ

  1. #21
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    • starting strength seminar april 2024
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    I think you mean 27%. Seems high.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by MBasic View Post
    I see your point. And yeah we had some of that (lazy talented guys) when I was in high school football.

    In the context of the NFL Combine Athlete I'd say no, to the OP's Lazy Hypothesis.
    Tyrann Mathiew is just one of many that comes to mind. What was it, his junior year he either got caught with weed or violated the school's substance abuse policy or whatever and didn't get to play at all his senior year. He showed up to the combine and put up horrible numbers. Immediately after running a below par 40 at 4.5 he was deemed to just have average speed as a DB. Only managed 4 reps @ 225. Come on man, he's only 186, but I could get it 6 reps when I was at that BW. As a result, the guys said that he could've trained a lot harder and his draft stock dropped. Contrary to this, he was drafted by Arizona ( I believe it was round 4) and last I heard he was having a decent career. Maybe if I had a 34" vertical I wouldn't have to work so hard to succeed either.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by BGish1984 View Post
    Maybe if I had a 34" vertical I wouldn't have to work so hard to succeed either.
    I think you're assuming a strong SVJ implies very high correlation coefficients across most ballistic motor patterns. That's just not true.

    I had a 34" SVJ & a 10'6" broad jump, but couldn't high jump 6'. At my current age of 40, I could probably throw a javelin 225' but couldn't throw a fastball over 85 if you had a gun to my head.

    The SVJ basically tells you if an athlete falls into one of three really broad categories: 1) highly trainable in SOME ballistic motor pattern* [around 28-30"], 2) not trainable on any ballistic motor patterns [less than 28"], 3) complete fucking freak [at/over 36"].

    Things will be fuzzy at the boundaries.

  4. #24
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    The NFL combine is just a media event and nothing more. The numbers are, for the most part, meaningless. A 40 time isn't any more indicative to performance in the NFL than the SVJ or the number of times they can bench 225. When an athlete's 'draft stock' rises or falls because of the combine, it's just their media buzz, not their real standings as evaluated by the teams.

    It's only 5 or 6 years ago that they introduced fully automatic timing for the 40. Technology that even small high school track teams have had for 20+ years. That's how much it matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by John Hanley View Post
    At my current age of 40, I could probably throw a javelin 225' but couldn't throw a fastball over 85 if you had a gun to my head..
    That's a nice throw at any age. The javelin was one of my worst events, always tried to muscle it

  5. #25
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    Say a player who was initially projected to be picked in the first round plunges to the 3rd round for various reasons( combine performance, legal matter,etc.) does this not effect their paycheck? Or are you implying that the teams just ignore these issues?

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    IIrc Stuart McGill investigated the validity of combine tests in different sports. NFL combine was a poor predictor for future performance, NHL was ok and the best one.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BGish1984 View Post
    Tyrann Mathiew is just one of many that comes to mind. What was it, his junior year he either got caught with weed or violated the school's substance abuse policy or whatever and didn't get to play at all his senior year. He showed up to the combine and put up horrible numbers. Immediately after running a below par 40 at 4.5 he was deemed to just have average speed as a DB. Only managed 4 reps @ 225. Come on man, he's only 186, but I could get it 6 reps when I was at that BW. As a result, the guys said that he could've trained a lot harder and his draft stock dropped. Contrary to this, he was drafted by Arizona ( I believe it was round 4) and last I heard he was having a decent career.
    The bench thing, yeah, you could draw some conclusions there. As did many of the press outlets when that went down.
    (barring an injury)
    Point Gish.

    BUT according to the data for CBs that year:
    He only had a 34" vertical; that was only #25 out of 32 who jumped (range: 40.5" to 29")
    His 40 was 17th out of 35 who ran . . .(there 15 guys 4.50 to 4.60; 4 guys 4.60+)
    He completely in the norms. . . if you look at that alone = Not lazy by your metrics.

    Some peeps can sprint better than they can jump and vice versa .
    Maybe character assassination isn't the first place to go.
    __________________________________________________ _________________________

    As to this:

    Maybe if I had a 34" vertical I wouldn't have to work so hard to succeed either.
    HERE . . . particularly, the part about washing your genitals in the sink at Chili's.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marenghi View Post
    IIrc Stuart McGill investigated the validity of combine tests in different sports. NFL combine was a poor predictor for future performance, NHL was ok and the best one.
    This is fascinating, Marenghui.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marenghi View Post
    IIrc Stuart McGill investigated the validity of combine tests in different sports. NFL combine was a poor predictor for future performance, NHL was ok and the best one.
    It was the NBA combine, not the NHL. The NHL was poor as well, as they had tested for endurance factors that had very little predictive validity.

  10. #30
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    Manti Te'o ran a lousy 4.82 at the combine. LB 241 33". The commentators even pointed out that having a strong vertical they anticipated a way better time. He improved it significantly within a pretty short time frame. He hit 4.71 at Pro Day. According to Todd Mcshay this boosted his draft stock back up. He ended up going in round 2, but I'm willing to bet that if he would've ran 4.60 initially, he would've been picked higher, probably 1st round.

    One more example for making my point, then I'm out of this mess. Michael Sam DE 6'2 261 25.5 4.91 It's quite possible( considering that he predominantly possesses slow twitch muscle fibers) that he worked pretty hard to get that time. But as I stated in my initial post to Rip, the data shows that there are many athletes among this same BW, position, etc. who have explosive potential, but are running the same times. If I were an NFL scout, I would view and note this as possibly a form of laziness/ lack of effort. If I saw that a player had a 30"+ SVJ, I would expect at least a decent 40 time.

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