Probably nothing and then football again after the second civil war is over in about 10 years time. People don't like things that are different. You'd have to wait for entire generations to die before you could actually replace one "national sport" with another.
Btw the 10 years thing was facetious; don't nobody quote me on that.
Great question. For the last two or three years I have watched the NFL doing everything it can to grow its revenues from every possible geographic location and media platform. But it has essentially peaked. Sure maybe realign some teams geographically, but it has over saturated it's fan base. So what does it do? If you were ESPN or NBC would you overpay for broadcasting rights anymore?
Hell no. Networks are not as lucrative and there is no guarantee that advertising rates will stay so high.
But where will the advertising go, that is the question. I think MMA will continue to go more mainstream and get the real advertisers.
Soccer is a bad TV sport because the clock runs 45 minutes straight. How can the networks go that long without commercials? Not gonna happen.
MMA is definitely a front runner to take over NFL.
I may be biased but I think rugby could be a fantastic sport for the US, if it ever takes off. It appeals to a big market due to nature of the sport, in that it accommodates everyone. Small, fat, slow guys have an important role, skinny quick guys have a role etc etc. This allows anyone to join a team and take part. On the professional side, everyone is big, skillful and strong which is appealing to watch. There are massive tackles and collisions (like American football), there's a quick pace due to the continuous flow of the game (like soccer), there's a very high skill level etc etc. Advertisements are only shown at half time and not every 60 seconds like in the NFL. Given the freak athletes that America produces, if they started playing rugby from a young age as opposed to soccer, they could dominate world rugby.
There's talk of getting American teams to join the Pro 14 in Europe (which is a competition between Welsh, Scottish, Irish, Italian and some South African teams). No anthems are played during these games so there wouldn't be any opportunity for players to "disrespect the anthem and the flag".
NFL may enter a decline (may), and a long drawn out one at that, but it won't just die. Even with an over 50% cut to its revenues it would be a top 3 sports league in the world. More likely is that the game changes over time, as is happening at the high-school level because of the concussion issue.
The contentious relationship between the players and the NFL/teams management is an ever present risk to the business, but not a mortal one. For all the hoohaa over the anthem and Kapernick or whatever, I don't see players going on strike over it. And if players did go on strike they wouldn't do so indefinitely, and certainly over anything other than $$$.
And comparing the NFL to an airline's business model is silly.
I stopped watching the NFL 5 years ago. Became an NHL fan and haven't looked back.
On the topic of concussions - maybe going back to leather helmets would help. I doubt they would do this, though.
I'm tired of NFL, and all of their political BS. They will not get a thin dime from me, not from cable or satellite fees, (don't subscribe) nor from advertiser revenue ("Big Game", etc.), nor from logos, jerseys, etc, etc. They would need to pay me to bear their logo. I'm not holding my breath....