COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[Shiva Kaul]

Last year, there were no hospitals built just-in-time in Wuhan, nor swamped ICUs in Lombardy. The substantial, novel burden on hospital systems can’t be waved away by facile observations about selection bias and uncertainty in the case fatality rate (which form the bulk of Ioannidis’ column).

Rather than shutting everything down, an equally impractical (though perhaps less expensive) solution is to scale up ICUs, by any means possible, to tremendous excess capacity.

[Mark Rippetoe]

Let me suggest that scaling up the grocery stores' supply chains might be a more practical first step, before your national quarantine goes into effect. Right now in Texas, the stores are almost empty.

This is about to be a very bad situation, one which will dwarf your ICU/hospital "burden." But share with us, if you have time, your thoughts on the superficiality of Dr. Ioannidis's arguments.

[Yngvi]

Did anyone post about Italy's excess mortality rate still being lower than normal?

[Shiva Kaul]

Grocery shortages are due to increased demand, not decreased supply. However, actual consumption hasn't increased; people just have well-stocked fridges and pantries, which they'll draw down as stores resupply. I don't see a major problem. Meanwhile, some hospitals in WA and NY are already running low on ventilators, because utilization of those has actually increased.

This will obviously be a tough few weeks, economically. However, other countries that imposed similarly tough measures are already exiting the acute phase of COVID19 outbreak. Hubei province reported zero new cases today, and the total (worldwide) number of active COVID19 cases decreased.

[Mark Rippetoe]

Grocery shortages are due to increased demand, not decreased supply.

I see. The shelves are not actually empty, and the three people who told me today that they had 2-4 rolls of toilet paper left were merely experiencing a home inventory misperception.

However, actual consumption hasn't increased; people just have well-stocked fridges and pantries, which they'll draw down as stores resupply. I don't see a major problem.

I see that you don't.

Meanwhile, some hospitals in WA and NY are already running low on ventilators, because utilization of those has actually increased.

I think the demand for ventilators has increased, and the supply is actually just fine.

This will obviously be a tough few weeks, economically. However, other countries that imposed similarly tough measures are already exiting the acute phase of COVID19 outbreak. Hubei province reported zero new cases today, and the total (worldwide) number of active COVID19 cases decreased.

You have absolutely no idea how many cases of COVID19 are new, old, or asymptomatic. Nobody does, and only fools think they do.

[Jovan Dragisic]

To those who hold up Italy as the reason we need to be on DEFCON 1: The situation in Italy seems to be an outlier. Why aren't other European countries experiencing the same thing? Does Italy have significantly more contact with China? Why isn't the same thing happening in other countries that have contact with China? Could it be a combination of poor hospitals and government, plus cultural factors and unknown unknowns?

Spain is seeming a similar scenario to Italy. But really, All of Europe is getting closed down for one month, the US will too once the number of confirmed cases starts rising. No sense in not wanting it to happen now, really.

[porcopedico]

Why aren't other European countries experiencing the same thing?

France and Spain are merely week behind. Other countries a few days more.

Does Italy have significantly more contact with China?

Italy has more contacts with china, in many cities they run the majority of bars and many restaurants.

plus cultural factors and unknown unknowns?

Italians have a lot more social interactions, especially between older people (big family gathering everey Sunday etc) than northern Europe.
that's possibly one reason why spain end france are next. And, of course, the unknown unknowns

Could it be a combination of poor hospitals and government

Saying nothing about the governement, but Italy's health care in the north (up to now most affected) is excellent. and it's free to everyone

Apart from the elderly there is a prevalence of male overweight patients. the virus doesn't care how much you squat

[tallison]

You have absolutely no idea how many cases of COVID19 are new, old, or asymptomatic. Nobody does, and only fools think they do.

Yeah, y'all don't know much of anything useful about this outbreak, do you? A little less pandering to the religious fundamentalists and not having an old-timey used-care-salesman as a president might do you some good. 'Course that leaves your get-your-paws-off-my-freedom coots who read a conspiracy in every human event and pride themselves on being ungovernable -- which, in times of crisis, is about as useful as spitting into the wind. Yessiree, this is going to be interesting.

[E_Miller]

My point was not that the Wuhan COVID19 is a bioweapon. My point is that our response to it makes it an excellent bioweapon.

If the last 10 days have shown us anything it's that China, or any other entity, doesn't need a biological weapon that kills people to bring the United States to it's knees. Only a convincing illusion of such a threat is required. The US media, government, and citizens will do the rest to cripple their own country.

[JaredSterling]

I see. The shelves are not actually empty, and the three people who told me today that they had 2-4 rolls of toilet paper left were merely experiencing a home inventory misperception.

Respectfully, I don't think Shiva was questioning your powers of perception.

Panic buying has caused empty shelves here in NYC too. My local grocery store was disconcertingly empty two nights ago. All I was able to get was (literally) the last yellow onion and a bottle of sriracha. Yesterday I walked in at about noon and the shelves were at least partially restocked. I was pleasantly surprised to see the reappearance of packaged chicken breast, all of which had been bought up days prior and not restocked.

I expect the stores in your town will be restocked as well, it just may take a little longer than it does in a major metro area.

Unless you're looking for rice, imported olive oil or handmade mozzarella, I expect supply chains are working fine and just need time to catch up after everyone started hoarding supplies and provisions.

Meanwhile, it's a good time to be a maker of bidets.