COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[Brian Harlin]

Is anyone aware of a bureaucrat/public employee who has been layed off?

I may not be clairvoyant, but I think I know the answer to this question.

[spacediver]

Is anyone aware of a bureaucrat/public employee who has been layed off?

Good question.

Here's a list essential workplaces in my province.

Utilities and community services
Utilities, and Businesses that support the provision of utilities and community services, including by providing products, materials and services needed for the delivery of utilities and community services:
Waste collection, waste/sewage treatment and disposal, operation of landfills, and hazardous waste disposal
Potable drinking water
Electricity Generation, transmission, distribution and storage
Natural Gas distribution, transmission and storage
Road construction and maintenance
Police, fire, emergency services including coroner services and pathology services
Corrections and courts services
Other government services including licenses and permits

That last one may provide cover for any government service, but I sure as hell hope that the same principles are being applied regardless of sector.

[hreed]

Is anyone aware of a bureaucrat/public employee who has been layed off?

IRS has.

[Mark Rippetoe]

IRS has.

Sent home with pay? Or laid off? As in no income. I don't believe that.

__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _____

This is dry. From John P. A. Ioannidis: Coronavirus disease 2019: the harms of exaggerated information and non-evidence-based
measures

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Economic and social disruption: The potential consequences on the global economy are
already tangible. February 22-28 was the worst week for global markets since 2008 and the
worse may lie ahead. Moreover, some political decisions may be confounded with alternative
motives. Lockdowns weaponized by suppressive regimes can create a precedent for easy
adoption in the future. Closure of borders may serve policies focused on limiting immigration.
Regardless, even in the strongest economies, disruption of social life, travel, work, and school
education may have major adverse consequences.

The eventual cost of such disruption is notoriously difficult to project. A quote of $2.7
trillion13 is totally speculative. Much depends on the duration of the anomaly. The global
economy and society is already getting a major blow from an epidemic that otherwise (as of
March 14) accounts for 0.01% of all 60 million annual global deaths from all causes and that
kills almost exclusively people with relatively low life expectancy.

...

This year’s coronavirus outbreak is clearly unprecedented in amount of attention
received. Media have capitalized on curiosity, uncertainty and horror. A Google search with
“coronavirus” yielded 3,550,000,000 results on March 3 and 9,440,000,000 results on March 14.
Conversely, “influenza” attracted 30- to 60-fold less attention although this season it has caused
so far about 100-fold more deaths (15) globally than coronavirus.

Repeating:

High consequence infectious diseases (HCID) - GOV.UK

Status of COVID-19
As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.

The need to have a national, coordinated response remains, but this is being met by the government’s COVID-19 response.

Cases of COVID-19 are no longer managed by HCID treatment centres only. All healthcare workers managing possible and confirmed cases should follow the updated national infection and prevention (IPC) guidance for COVID-19, which supersedes all previous IPC guidance for COVID-19. This guidance includes instructions about different personal protective equipment (PPE) ensembles that are appropriate for different clinical scenarios.

[Mark Rippetoe]

More:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7.pdf

As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases
and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these,
48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter,
Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence
of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which
requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment rate
and the delay between symptoms onset and death. Using
public and published information, we estimate that the overall
symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying
after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was
1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the
corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk
(2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator1
of deaths/deaths + recoveries (2,169/2,169 + 17,572 = 11%) as of 29
February 2020. Compared to those aged 30–59 years, those
aged below 30 and above 59 years were 0.6 (0.3–1.1) and 5.1
(4.2–6.1) times more likely to die after developing symptoms.
The risk of symptomatic infection increased with age (for
example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30–60 years).

[Mark Gleichauf]

Complete inversion. Go somewhere else if you're going to lie.

We'll see who shows up to help if the monopolies and regulations are broken and people with knowledge and skills aren't prevented from assisting. I fully expect more to start running away, not just those who left assisted living folks to die in Spain or those who've abandoned their posts in New York hospitals and forced extra shifts on remaining staff. How many of those hiding are going to suddenly step up and put themselves at risk?

Sometimes people will surprise you, but those who're living fragmented lives, isolated among millions and without real community, and with not even the foresight to have basic preparations in place, aren't likely candidates. It's going to be those who are already out there, who've made it a habit their entire lives, who have the courage and will to continue on. Same as always.

Wizard slayer. Keep crushing, Stef.

Is anyone aware of a bureaucrat/public employee who has been layed off?

No, and you won’t find one. I am one of those employees, I am still working, and I will get the helicopter money. But, look at the bright side, my kids get to pay for it.

[Yngvi]

This macroeconomic shit concerns all of us

So we may as well keep the lockdowns in place, because a) this will only make everything move faster; and b) we actually want as many of the generation that presided over this humongous clusterfuck to stay alive long enough to see the effects of their labor on their progeny. I suggest you make peace with all the people you wronged, not because it will help you much in this life, they are gonna be as poor as you, but the only sensible thing to worry about now is karma and future reincarnations. I'm trying to get on Vishnu's good side and have him transport me to some year before paper was invented.

Sensible post. I wonder how many states will go bankrupt and how quickly; It is not a matter of if it will happen this time. I still think that many of the seeds were planted in the early 1900s by the first progressives though.

Is anyone aware of a bureaucrat/public employee who has been layed off?

I am aware of several who have gotten bonuses or increases in pay.

[spacediver]

More:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7.pdf

...we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than...

Even for symptomatic case fatality risk (which is higher than infection case fatality risk), [0.9% to 2.1%] is pretty high for an overall figure (across ages).

From that same paper, in extended data figure 3, the 2009 swine flu had an overall symptomatic case fatality risk of 0.026% in the UK (although admittedly, this comparison is compromised by the fact that one is of the Wuhan population, while the other is of the UK population).

If the 1.4% figure is even somewhat generalizable, many of our planet's healthcare systems are in for quite an ordeal.

[Mark Rippetoe]

Just a random thought: If they decide to allow an election in November, what keeps them from declaring a shelter in place order for a potential second wave of infection that prevents gatherings of 10 or more at the polling places? Think before you answer.

[hreed]

Sent home with pay? Or laid off? As in no income. I don't believe that.

Some parts of the organization have laid off employees. That means no pay and eligible to collect unemployment. Others are continuing to work as normal, and those able to telework are doing so from home - depending on your role within.

IRS Operations During COVID-19: Mission-critical functions continue | Internal Revenue Service