COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 100

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #991
    Join Date
    Jan 2014


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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Do you know what unemployment is? Bankruptcy? Suicide? The destruction of a life's work? What do you do for a living that causes you to be this obtuse? Do you know what "obtuse" means?
    I guess you didn’t read the long post I just made on precisely this topic. Never mind.

  2. #992
    Join Date
    Aug 2017


    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    I do think outcomes will worsen (largely via nosocomial infection) if this state of affairs persists. But right now, my point is mostly about occupational safety, and the fact that much of the medical system is currently disabled.

    We already have nurses on gag orders about their lack of PPE, quitting their jobs out of personal safety concerns. And ambulances in NY which no longer take patients in cardiac arrest to the ER.

    I expect it to tail off soon - this is not an eternal emergency. Even Cuomo expected a peak in mid-April. I don’t understand why you lump me in with those calling for 3-month lockdowns.

    I think the economic situation is grave, and should soon overrule the PPE / vent / bed situation. (I have the capacity to recognize multiple problems at once.)

    if you are going to keep making this distinction (and insinuating that COVID-19 is merely incidental), you need to learn a bit about ICD-10-CM coding. The definition of “died of ___”, in terms of a single cause of death, is specified by a rather complex algorithm. In any case, US death statistics only include cases where COVID-19 was actually determined as a cause that contributed to death.

    I'd like to see the statistics where covid is shown to be:

    A. The underlying cause of death


    B. An associated cause of death.

    Are the covid numbers we are seeing in the news all in category B. Partly in category B, or all in category A.

  3. #993
    Join Date
    Jan 2019


    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    how the hell do you think the economy will function if this thing is allowed to go more or less unchecked?
    We have to transition to this, sooner rather than later. I think the way it works is: the world is flooded in PPE. ER and ICU capacity is doubled globally. The Bergamo proposal is adopted, where most patient care occurs at home or in separate facilities. Wearing masks is mandatory, and establishments provide facilities for disinfection. Social mores adjust. This continues until effective treatment and vaccine are developed.

    It obviously takes time to ramp up PPE production, expand hospital capacity, and avert an immediate collapse. The lockdowns serve those purposes, but they remain the most damaging mitigations ever enacted.

  4. #994
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    North Texas


    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    The awful problem, however, is that -- to use somebody else's better words -- this isn't a choice between one bad outcome (lots of dead people) and another bad outcome (a crashed economy). It's a choice between one bad outcome and *both* bad outcomes. This thing is NOT the flu. If we do nothing, it's capable of killing more than a million of people in the US. And even if the current restrictions were followed religiously, it's still on track to kill at least several times more people than even the worst flu season. And these are *not* just people who were about to die anyway. Also, unlike car accidents and smoking, it's highly infectious. So we can't just leave it up to people to "do the right thing" -- because even of the vast majority of us did, a relatively small fraction of idiots would be enough to screw things up for all of us.
    Not everybody agrees with your assessment:

    A group of doctors in Marseille, France, working in a very experienced lab, that regularly does testing for respiratory viruses, reported testing 4,084 samples for the novel coronavirus, using several systems approved for use in Europe, without a single positive [25]. This included 337 people returning from China who were tested twice, and 32 people referred because of suspected coronavirus infection. It is statistically improbable that this lab was just lucky to not get any coronavirus cases, it is more likely that they used more stringent criteria, illustrating that the performance of not just test kits, but labs, with this new test, is completely unknown. Yet, a positive test remains unquestioned in every case.
    In the absence of actually knowing for sure what the hell is going on with this virus, Anthony Fauci said recently that the quarantine/"social distancing" measures should remain in effect until there were no new cases, no deaths. This is a satisfying academic position, but the man is a fool for saying it, and respect for his expertise comes with a very high price.

    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    You just can't have a functioning economy where everybody is worried about catching a disease that has a ~1% overall mortality rate, and about spreading a disease that has a far higher chance yet of killing their more vulnerable loved ones.
    You can't have a functioning economy if you're not allowed to. The rest of the country is not NYC, and we are being treated as if we were. And I'm not saying you have anything to gain -- several of us have speculated that you don't have anything to lose, and that seems to be the case. We do, so our calculus is different than yours. You apparently don't realize that the damage to the economy is already so profound that it will take years to recover, if it ever does, but you think that the imminent loss of 1% of the US population is a credible enough prospect to sacrifice the livelihoods of tens of millions more than that, and the geometric growth of the power of governments at all levels is an acceptable side effect of whatever is necessary to avert your doomsday scenario. I'm tired of this too. We'll see who's right in a month.

  5. #995
    Join Date
    Apr 2013


    Quote Originally Posted by MAD9692 View Post
    Gargling with what?
    Iodine it seems, usually sold as 'Isojin'..
    Active ingredient Povidone-Iodine. "It has antiseptic properties that kills harmful micro organisms such as bacteria, virus and fungi within the throat and mouth."

    Probably does naff all against viruses.
    To gargle or not to gargle? | The Japan Times

  6. #996
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Los Alamos, NM


    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post

    If you told New Yorkers right now that they are free to go to a restaurant, do you think they would? .
    How about telling New Yorkers they are free to not go to restaurants?

  7. #997
    Join Date
    Jul 2019


    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    Do you know what an exponential is?
    Do you? Unless there's something I'm missing with that graph, it's not showing an exponential increase, rather a flat one. Exponential increases are that "hockey stick" shape when you graph them, generally.

  8. #998
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Toronto, Ontario


    The data out of iceland is interesting, indicating that 50 percent of positive cases are asymptomatic.

    In Iceland, free coronavirus tests reveal 50% of cases show no symptoms | National Post

    This is promising news, but what we desperately need to start doing is figuring out how many asymptomatic people are positive.

    This is what Peter Attia is calling for here:


    It's tempting to look at data from Iceland and make the incorrect inference that 50 percent of asymptomatic people are actually carrying the virus (this would be great news, as it would imply that the case fatality risk is much smaller than expected, assuming most people in the population are asymptomatic).

    But you have to do the proper test.

    Suppose, for example, that only 5 percent of asymptomatic people are infected (bad news for CFR).

    Also suppose that 70 percent of symptomatic people are infected.

    Now suppose that asymptomatic people comprise 80 percent of the population, and symptomatic people comprise the remaining 20%.

    Then, if you were to randomly test 100 people from the population, you'd expect 80 people to be asymptomatic, and 20 people to be symptomatic.

    You'd thus expect 4 asymptomatic people to test positive, and 15 symptomatic people to test positive.

    You'd then conclude (rightly) that 4/19 = ~20% of positive cases are asymptomatic.

    But you'd be wrong to conclude that 20 percent of asymptomatic people are carriers (the correct percentage is 5%).

    That's why you need to directly test (preferably randomly) asymptomatic people and get the figures (and test the same folks twice separated by 5-7 days). If it turns out that a huge chunk of them test positive (either for antibodies, or for the virus itself, and ignoring the issue of PCR vs culture testing), and if a large chunk of your population is asymptomatic, you can infer that a large chunk of your population has already been infected. And if this the case, this means two things:

    1) The CFR is low in your community (assuming you haven't been inundated with a huge number of deaths). The fact that these folks tested positive while remaining asymptomatic for 5-7 days means that they're very unlikely to go on to get worse, let alone die.
    2) You're likely already past the exponential phase of growth, which means that social distancing isn't as critical.

    Take home point is that this sort of strategic testing of asymptomatic people might allow many communities to relax social distancing with low risk.

  9. #999
    Join Date
    Aug 2015


    COVID-19: Attacks the 1-Beta Chain of Hemoglobin and Captures the Porphyrin to Inhibit Human Heme Metabolism

    Have to wonder if this might explain some of the early reports that certain blood types were far more likely to survive. Also might explain some of the anecdotal reports of people who engage in intense aerobic exercise getting especially sick, and of patients suddenly going hypoxic in the waiting room.

  10. #1000
    Join Date
    Oct 2019


    starting strength coach development program
    A clarification:

    Doctors are compelled to take the Hippocratic Oath: “First, do no harm”.

    A question to all doctors who advocate the current COVID-19 government lockdown measures:

    Are there any models which forecast the effect that these COVID-19 government lockdown measures will have on suicide rates?

    The World Health Organisation states that
    suicide accounted for 1.4% of all deaths worldwide, making it the 18th leading cause of death in 2016.

    WHO | Suicide data

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