COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 114

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #1131
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    Quote Originally Posted by MatthewG View Post
    News just in over here that our PM has been moved into intensive care due to COVID19. British media are all over this story demanding we take this threat very serious now. With the UK population of over 66 million and total of 1559 people in intensive care. He's either really unlucky or something sinister is going on herw. Knowing what we know about Olympic athletes will to win at any costs, do we think this applies to politicians?
    Or it's just a precaution because he is the PM. There's a lot we don't know about this and there's no reason to take any media report at face value.

    I'm willing to bet "intensive care" has a different meaning for the PM than it does for the average person.

  2. #1132
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    Gut instinct re. Boris in intensive care? Planned. Machiavellian Real Politik.

  3. #1133
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    Quote Originally Posted by MatthewG View Post
    Knowing what we know about Olympic athletes will to win at any costs, do we think this applies to politicians?
    The opposite, I think. Boris’ heart and lungs could turn to bangers and mash, and, by the magic of ECMO, he would remain alive.

  4. #1134
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    #alonetogether

    How exquisitely Orwellian...

  5. #1135
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    Quote Originally Posted by JJdd View Post
    I don't know if this was posted yet, but

    Ventilators are killing people

    YouTube

    A miniaturized version of the aspirin-problem from 1918?

    I wonder if we'll see markedly different ventilator results from State to State in the USA, or say from country to country, depending on what methods and protocols taught to / used by medical staff ...and how they were employed in the differing areas?

  6. #1136
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    Quote Originally Posted by MatthewG View Post
    News just in over here that our PM has been moved into intensive care due to COVID19. British media are all over this story demanding we take this threat very serious now. With the UK population of over 66 million and total of 1559 people in intensive care. He's either really unlucky or something sinister is going on herw. Knowing what we know about Olympic athletes will to win at any costs, do we think this applies to politicians?
    Of course they are.

    Seriously, do you honestly think he wouldn’t be in the hospital right now for anything less than a hangnail?

  7. #1137
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    The head of state of a G7 country is in the ICU with a deadly virus and y’all saying it’s all an elaborate ploy? When do we get to hear your theories on controlled demolition of skyscrapers and jet fuel? When’s the next UFO flyover?

  8. #1138
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    Quote Originally Posted by Satch12879 View Post
    Of course they are.

    Seriously, do you honestly think he wouldn’t be in the hospital right now for anything less than a hangnail?
    I honestly hope it's just a precaution and doesn't turn into some twisted martyrdom.

    I was thinking earlier today, nothing else to do when you can't leave your house, about my teenage youth when we had a massive "Livestrong" craze over here in the UK. The combined support for Lance Armstrong/Cancer was the talk of my local school for a few years. Over half my school paraded around wearing those yellow bracelets. None of them, or even the adults in my village, would accept the PED allegations when they were starting to surface. In time of course the allegations got louder and the support faded away. Just goes to show the naivety of many people, that want to believe in a higher good.

    Source to my intensive care figures in the UK, I was meant to post this in my previous post.

    [B]April 5 (GMT)[/B]

    UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson admitted to the hospital. “This is a precautionary step, as the Prime Minister continues to have persistent symptoms of coronavirus ten days after testing positive for the virus,” Downing Street said [source]

    alert 5903 new cases and 621 new deaths in the United Kingdom [source]

    UK: 1,559 COVID-19 patients are currently being treated in intensive care. Source: Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) [pdf]


    United Kingdom Coronavirus: 51,608 Cases and 5,373 Deaths - Worldometer

  9. #1139
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    YouTube Perspectives on the Pandemic | Professor Knut Wittkowski

    Another good one, from Knut Wittkowski PhD, for twenty years head of The Rockefeller University's Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design. I love his statement at 5:03. Hurry, before Youtube takes it down.
    Watched the whole thing earlier.

    I'm not sure if he's underestimating how lethal this virus is, or if he's just got a higher tolerance for lethality than others.

    He estimates a 2 to 3 percent symptomatic case fatality rate (sCFR), and seems not to be too concerned about that figure. By contrast, the symptomatic case fatality rate of the swine flu was 0.005 percent in New Zealand.

    Now it may be the case that only a tiny fraction of infected folks experience symptoms, and if that's the case, a 2-3 percent sCFR may be low enough to warrant a rapid herd immunity strategy.

    But if it's more than a tiny fraction, that's a hell of a bloody outcome.

    He's not acknowledging the limits of his knowledge, and this is the main problem I see with his thought process. He's basically banking on a tiny ratio of symptomatic to asymptomatic cases, and I don't think we've done the testing yet to get that ratio.

    There was also the strange comment he made about SARS cross immunity. He said that SARS-CoV-2 is able to infect us since 15 years has passed since SARS-CoV, and our immunity has worn out.

    There are two issues with this statement, one of which makes me question his basic cognitive stability.

    1) There would need to be significant cross immunity

    and more importantly

    2) SARS CoV 1 only infected about 8000 people world wide, so there's no way our species would have developed immunity to SARS-CoV-2 even if cross immunity was strong between CoV-1 and CoV-2.

    Consider the magnitude of the thinking error necessary to generate a statement like his about cross immunity.

    As for the lack of data showing a relationship between social distancing measures, and peak, I'm gonna try take a look at that data myself and see what I find.

    I agree with him completely that in the absence of a vaccine or antivirals, herd immunity is going to be the only thing that ends this (btw I don't remember him even mentioning vaccines/antivirals).

    And if that's the case, we're going to have to do some bloodletting to the virus at some point (and I fully understand that we're already bloodletting society in other ways).

    I don't think he understands/believes the claimed mismatch between the capacity of healthcare systems and the load of a peak unchecked by social distancing.

  10. #1140
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    Quote Originally Posted by elVarouza View Post
    The head of state of a G7 country is in the ICU with a deadly virus and y’all saying it’s all an elaborate ploy? When do we get to hear your theories on controlled demolition of skyscrapers and jet fuel? When’s the next UFO flyover?
    Right after the evidence that the earth is flat...

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