COVID19 Factors We Should Consider
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How many people died from the virus in November December January February undocumented because there was no test and nobody was looking for it? How many got sick and recovered? How many were asymptomatic? How can we factor these possibilities into the worst case model the current quarantine policies are based upon?Quote:
Is your solution to just let this go unchecked and run rampant in the community without the quarantine?
What has changed since the original models were formed? All I am seeing is that the current strategies appear to be working. I would be more apt to agree with you if the model did not change despite the current social distancing guidelines being put in place.
I do have one question about that graph. I couldn't find the original source of the graph, does that represent the total number of "all" hospitalizations or is it the hospitalizations due solely to covid? I know the source is located at the bottom, but I could not find that exact graph. If it includes the former then this wouldn't address the questions being asked as it could be caused by, as you said, some hospitals currently being empty which I addressed above.
Correction, the last sentence of the above post should have read:
"That is how the hot spots start. Do you really think it would be safer for those with pre-existing conditions to be coming into the hospital after this has spread throughout the community unchecked and the number of cases inside the hospital has increased?
Those "hospitals are empty" because the supplies needed to run them are no longer available. The attending physicians, residents, and nurses have been reassigned to medicine or ED. The imaging equipment is running slowly, because it needs to be cleaned thoroughly after each use. Maybe the OR now has beds.
For those familiar with Michael Bury, of the Big Short, he has some fairly strong views on the topic. As someone with medical quals and who is also extremely good with 'details', his comments are worth a read. Even if you disagree.
https://twitter.com/michaeljburry
bloomberg
NJ, where the sentences are correct.
Why do you believe much of the medical system is shut down? This is not mandated by the government, nor does it carry a financial incentive. Are the hospital administrators simply in the grip of bad models?
I have no objection that our response was awful. We weren't prepared. The current administration ignored basic scientific facts and now it's tough to put the smoke back in the box.
Korea has been through this with SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, and even some TB outbreaks back in the 80's or 90's, I think. If you think that our government is actually capable of mounting a response to where we can get back to an "acceptable" number (close to zero) and then contact trace people, including asymptomatics, by, say, June 1, you are fooling yourself. Wuhan, for example, was on 100% lockdown for 76 days. We are nowhere close to a 100% lockdown, so we're probably talking about double that, with the high probability that the government fucks it up and we start all over again.
Also, Korea doesn't worry about some of the same privacy issues we have in this country. They're installing apps on people's phones and using them like tracking bracelets. We could learn a lot from Korea in terms of how to test, how to pay for it, why we should wear masks, blah, blah, blah.... But, if you think that people in this country are just going to allow the government to install tracking apps on their phones then you're living in a fantasy land.
Handling this the way they do in much of Asia would mean that we step on the freedoms of every American and while some won't mind this, all it takes is a minority to refuse.
Another spending bill is coming up. I would rather they focus it on the 55+ crowd staying home and letting the rest of America go back to work. It'll build herd immunity. It keeps large swaths of the vulnerable population protected, and it gets the economy going. If you're over 55. Groceries will be open an hour or two earlier for you for the foreseeable future. Your paycheck is assured if you're still working. Some younger folks will get it. Some will die. But, at least the bulk of the workforce is working again. The current plan is not tenable, sane, or even healthy for this country.