Matthew I'll take this on. I'm a medic in the UK. Although I'm not an intensivist I work in an allied specialty and frequently I'm in intensive care. The first graph shows the reduction in footfall at 17 stations in the UK as a proxy for reduced contacts. In Europe a number of metrics have been used to measure reduced contacts.
The second graph is number of new cases identified per day in the UK. This is about 5000 cases at the moment and does not seem to be rising - hence flattening the curve. If the new case rate per day remains 5000 the curve of the graph becomes a horizontal flat line. It is most worrying to see this rising. It has been shown that the average Covid patient spreads the virus to 2.5 other people. If those people spread to another 2.5 people each, in a month 400 are affected and in 2 months 160,000 are affected. If social contacts are halved each Covid patient might spread the virus to 1.25 people each, resulting in 15 new cases after a month and 225 cases after 2 months. The goal in a pandemic is to get the existing infections causing less than one new infection each. That way the disease declines and dies out as it has nowhere to go. At the moment the data suggests that in the UK that at the very most we are at a state of an existing infection causing only one new infection. Once the new infection rate is stable, then the death rate per day will stop going up but there will be a delay of possibly a couple of weeks before that happens
Regarding testing, in the UK for weeks testing capacity has only allowed those being admitted to hospital to be tested and we have been able to fulfil that consistently. So testing policy has been consistent. In recent days healthcare workers who are sidelined with suspect Covid symptoms have started to be tested as testing capacity has increased. Despite that the number of cases has not increased even though we are diagnosing Covid positive healthcare workers. It's therefore possible that the number of new cases may be starting to fall since we are testing more people and the number of positives is stable.
The third graph shows the number of hospital beds being occupied by Covid patients in different regions. You can see numbers still rising but the curves are getting flatter as the rate of new infections stabilizes.
At the end she alludes to critical care. There are normally just over 4000 critical care beds in the UK operating at about 80% capacity. Up to 4 April 2249 Covid patients had been admitted to ICU in the UK with about 1600 still there on 4 April. That's 40% of the country's capacity and remember there's normally 80% occupancy for other conditions. 80% + 40%=? Therefore extra critical care beds created and ICUs in London especially are very stretched. If there is exponential growth in infections or no flattening of the curve, then the system reaches capacity and breaks. The British government calculated that if they just let the virus run through the population ICU capacity would be exceeded by a factor of 8 with obvious consequences of thousands of preventable deaths.