Well sir, why the fuck is there a flu SEASON?
Printable View
What the hell is wrong with you? Your linked page gives the *total number of deaths*, while we -- specifically *you* -- were talking about the *daily number of deaths*. Let me remind you:Those numbers are *nowhere* on this page. And no reputable source has ever cited an actual daily death count anywhere near 3154 so far. The correct link to the CDC mortality statistics is this one: Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) -- which of course also disagrees with your numbers.
BUT, I think I've managed to reverse engineer where your number comes from. What I think you've done is grabbed the total number from that page on every day and called the difference between successive dates a "daily death count".
This, of course, is ridiculous. The number of deaths reported on any given day do NOT just refer to the number who died that day -- reports keep coming for a long time after any given day, reporting on weekends may be sketchy, etc etc. The CDC death count page I linked to above starts by saying "Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes)" and if you then look at the technical notes -- which I'm sure only one of us has done -- you also find this: "Provisional counts reported here track approximately 1–2 weeks behind other published data sources on the number of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. (1,2,3)." (And citation number 1 refers to the JHU data base I am using.)
Christ, if there ever was a better illustration of why armchair epidemiology is a bad idea, this is it. "Analysing" data you do not understand is a fucking recipe for disaster.
For the love of all that is holy, could you please just acknowledge that you fucked up?
I just want to briefly add to this obvious point. People are acting as if this 15% is some sort of upper limit on what you might get in an unchecked outbreak, or with just ordinary "common sense" personal hygiene. I hope this is true, but I don't see evidence for this in the actual numbers. Specifically:
- The carnival event in Gangelt (the town we are talking about in Germany) happened on Feb 15.
- The state mandated serious social interventions no later than March 16, when schools were closed, for example.
- The town has a population of about 10,000 people, so 15% means about 150 infected people.
- So the number of infection doubled a little over 7 times from the single first index case.
- If we thought the growth from the index case to those 150 infections was exponential and happened between Feb 15 and March 16, what doubling time would be implied? Well, it's about 4 days -- which isn't particularly crazy at all compared to what we've seen elsewhere.
Obviously, this is just a back-of-the-envelope calculation to gain some intuition. For example, the very initial spread may have been faster because of the carnival event. And of course people will have started to adopt more than common sense social distancing measures well before the schools closed. Those would pull in different directions.
So my point is not that we know that 15% would definitely have become 70% or whatever. My point is simply that there is no reason to think from this that 15% is an upper limit.
3rd time of asking:
In which State do you live Lazygun?
4th time of asking:
In which state do you live Lazygun?
A reminder of the definition of Cowardice, Oxford English Dictionary:
“A person who is not brave or who does not have the courage to do things that other people do not think are especially difficult“.
Some data recently made available would support the claim that this is not a simple flu:
From Italy:
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/cal...si_2020w13.pdf
That's number of deaths for people over 65, by week, un to March 31st, compared to average for the last five years, adjusted for ageing population. The spike is undeniable.
From the UK.
The stats office has just released some data that point to a similar dynamics:
Coronavirus: One in five deaths now linked to virus - BBC News
(see picture mid-way through text).
Bear in mind this is only for the week ending April 3rd;
Couldn't find the same numbers for Spain, or France, yet.
Is a similar data set available for the US? Could be useful to compare the trends.
IPB
Taking this number crunching a bit further let’s analyze the current total mortality model predictions and determine an infection rate. We’ll stick with the .5% IFR because it still has that nice 5 TIMES AS DEADLY AS THE FLU! ring to it and matches several citations and data sources. So:
Formula:
Infection rate = mortality / IFR / total population
US mortality = 68,841 projected
Sweden mortality = 18,322 projected
Norway mortality = 811 projected
UK mortality = 23,791 projected
China mortality = 3,341 actual
S Korea mortality = 222 actual
US infection rate = 4.2% projected
Sweden infection rate = 36.6% projected
Norway infection rate = 3.2% projected
UK infection rate = 7.2% projected
China infection rate = .05% actual
S Korea infection rate = .09% actual
I don't see the point you are trying to make.
But as far as the COVID19 thing that is going around.
It is "novel", and it's first go around might not behave the same way as the seasonal flu.
No one had an immunity from being previously infected (or via vaccine obvs.) before hand. Everyone is a virgin.
IIRC 2009 N1H1 was this way. It hit in April/June and peaked in August (dead of summer) in its 'first year'.
Then was abruptly tamped down, then peaked again quickly in winter, as you would expect.
I have tried (very unsuccessfully) to google an article or quote for this. I also recall someone, somewhere in this thread, mentioning it (it may have been you). Do you have a link, easily at your fingertips, to find an article, etc. quoting this from the 1980s? Thanks.