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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #1611
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    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    This is a point that I have not seen addressed (although I may have missed it), and it's a strong one, if the premise is true.

    I've seen people estimate that given what we (think) we know about the virus's transmissibilty, that the entire globe would be infected in 2 months if unchecked.

    But if the virus actually has been here since, say December or even January, then why hasn't the entire US population already been infected, since it's had a huge head start before we began physically distancing?

    Here are some possibilities that I can come up with:

    1) It hasn't actually been here since Dec/Jan.
    2) We are overestimating its transmissibility.
    3) We are overestimating its IFR.
    Quote Originally Posted by Soule View Post
    Well sir, why the fuck is there a flu SEASON?
    eh? I have no idea how your question relates to my post.


    Quote Originally Posted by Matt James View Post
    4)We don't have a clue how many people get it with mild symptoms or none at all.
    4) would fall under 3). If a whole bunch of people have already gotten it with no or mild symptoms, that would mean we have overestimated IFR. I should have been clearer in possibility 3, and stated it:

    3) More people have been infected than we think, and the reason that we aren't seeing huge numbers of deaths is that we are overestimating its IFR

    Quote Originally Posted by johnst_nhb View Post
    4) Most (or a great deal of) the entire population of the US HAS already been infected.
    That falls under 3) - see above.

    Speaking of, was reading this nytimes piece today:

    It is possible that many more cases of Covid-19 have occurred than have been reported, even after accounting for limited testing. One recent study (not yet peer-reviewed) suggests that rather than, say, 10 times the number of detected cases, the United States may really have more like 100, or even 1,000, times the official number. This estimate is an indirect inference from statistical correlations. In emergencies, such indirect assessments can be early evidence of an important finding — or statistical flukes. But if this one is correct, then herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 could be building faster than the commonly reported figures suggest.
    This podcast has good info - Peter Attia interviewing Amesh Adalja - brief but efficient coverage of a number of topics that we've been discussing here.

    If I'm reading between the lines, I think Adalja thinks that we may have over-reacted in many communities (not certain about this, but he speaks about some of his colleagues who think we should not have closed schools - maybe he's referring to Michael Osterholm)

    Here in Toronto, we're still awaiting the surge of patients in the ICUs; meanwhile, public parks are shut down and people are getting hefty fines for violating rules, and the government has rejected rapid testing antibody tests, without any clear indication as to why (they've been vague, as far as I can tell).

    Measures like these demand more transparency. There has been some improvement, but how about a weekly update detailing exactly what the current strategy is (beyond "flatten the curve"). Right now, we appear to have completely frozen the curve. What is the game plan moving forward?

  2. #1612
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    Quote Originally Posted by CommanderFun View Post
    That's the feeling I have. I'm looking forward to antibody tests being proliferated, I think a lot of people are gonna look really goddamn stupid once they are.
    Any data that contradicts Fauci and his models will be suppressed by the media. If it's not reported, it never happened.

  3. #1613
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    Quote Originally Posted by CommanderFun View Post
    That's the feeling I have. I'm looking forward to antibody tests being proliferated, I think a lot of people are gonna look really goddamn stupid once they are.
    Antibody tests will show how well taking away our civil liberties did to save lives... regardless of what the truth is.

  4. #1614
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    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    Dear God, Rob. I haven't changed my numbers and my arguments once, and yes, I actually do read the papers I cite before I cite them. And of course I had noticed the total number of deaths on the page you linked -- but as we had been discussing *daily death counts* and that number is *total deaths*, it seemed you couldn't possibly be referring to it (because it makes no sense).

    Look, do you seriously think that your method doesn't agree with other numbers because "they revise the numbers slightly to correct for reporting error"? If so, you're completely missing the point. Could you just take a deep breath and read the following paragraph with something resembling an open mind before you start typing furiously at me again?

    The way the CDC is collecting data is that they receive *dated* reports of COVID-19 related deaths every day. But not just from *that* day. So, on Monday, for example, they'll get dated reports coming in of deaths that occurred on Monday, of deaths that occurred the day before (Sunday), the day before that (Saturday), etc etc. As the CDC site I quoted *explicitly* states, these reports tend to come in for up to at least 1-2 weeks or so. So if you're going to work out a "daily death count", you simply *CANNOT* take the total number of deaths that were known on, say Monday, and subtract from it the total number of deaths that were known on Sunday. Because the deaths that were reported in this time interval includes deaths that happened on Sunday, on Saturday, on Friday etc etc. This isn't a "reporting error". It's just how reporting works. And it explains why your number is way too high -- because the deaths that were counted that day included deaths that occurred on multiple days.

    Look, I actually think you know perfectly well that your position is just ridiculous here. I don't even know why you're trying to defend it. Even I don't think it's all that important a point -- it just shows that you were wrong about the peak possibly having already happened. But it's exactly this sort of shit that pisses me off so much throughout this thread. It's bad enough that people throw around numbers they don't understand and misinterpret them to make whatever point they're trying to make. But fuck, what is it with people that nobody can ever acknowledge even the most obvious and blatant outright mistakes? We're all human, we all fuck up. I'd like to think that if you showed me such a clear-cut error I've made, I'd be big enough to acknowledge it.
    Keep typing, lazygun.

  5. #1615
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Keep typing, lazygun.
    Do you think I’m wrong?

  6. #1616
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    Arrest made as protesters call for North Carolina businesses to reopen

    This just in on Police State news: Raleigh Police in North Carolina arrest peaceful protesters and then address the incident on their twitter, stating that "protesting is non-essential." Man, if only we had a constitutionally protected right to assemble and protest.

  7. #1617
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    Hmm...
    ... the government has rejected rapid testing antibody tests, without any clear indication as to why...
    I'm looking forward to antibody tests being proliferated, I think a lot of people are gonna look really goddamn stupid once they are.

  8. #1618
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cody Annino View Post
    Arrest made as protesters call for North Carolina businesses to reopen

    This just in on Police State news: Raleigh Police in North Carolina arrest peaceful protesters and then address the incident on their twitter, stating that "protesting is non-essential." Man, if only we had a constitutionally protected right to assemble and protest.
    The old white men who wrote it should have seen that oversight, and maybe amended it.

  9. #1619
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    Quote Originally Posted by wiigelec View Post
    Hmm...
    Unfortunately (fortunately?), I think it's just sheer incompetence and bureaucratic inertia.

    They should be outsourcing this important work to competent agile entities.

  10. #1620
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    starting strength coach development program
    The way the CDC is collecting data is that they receive *dated* reports of COVID-19 related deaths every day. But not just from *that* day. So, on Monday, for example, they'll get dated reports coming in of deaths that occurred on Monday, of deaths that occurred the day before (Sunday), the day before that (Saturday), etc etc. As the CDC site I quoted *explicitly* states, these reports tend to come in for up to at least 1-2 weeks or so. So if you're going to work out a "daily death count", you simply *CANNOT* take the total number of deaths that were known on, say Monday, and subtract from it the total number of deaths that were known on Sunday. Because the deaths that were reported in this time interval includes deaths that happened on Sunday, on Saturday, on Friday etc etc. This isn't a "reporting error". It's just how reporting works. And it explains why your number is way too high -- because the deaths that were counted that day included deaths that occurred on multiple days.
    If what you are trying to say is:

    “Due to lag in reporting, the daily death count for any given day will not be precisely tallied for up to two weeks. Therefore one cannot view the data on a Tuesday and expect the daily count for Monday to be complete. Also if one is only looking at total deaths you cannot view the total death count on Monday and subtract the total death count from Sunday to get Monday’s daily count until the Monday and Sunday data are at least two weeks old...”

    ...then you didn’t do a very good job...

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