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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #1621
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    The old white men who wrote it should have seen that oversight, and maybe amended it.
    That would certainly be racist and probably xenophobic

  2. #1622
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    Quote Originally Posted by wiigelec View Post
    If what you are trying to say is:

    “Due to lag in reporting, the daily death count for any given day will not be precisely tallied for up to two weeks. Therefore one cannot view the data on a Tuesday and expect the daily count for Monday to be complete. Also if one is only looking at total deaths you cannot view the total death count on Monday and subtract the total death count from Sunday to get Monday’s daily count until the Monday and Sunday data are at least two weeks old...”

    ...then you didn’t do a very good job...
    No, I was trying to say what I said.

    I cannot believe you still do not understand this. Or maybe you do and just really mangled your version of what you think I said.

    The CDC totals on Rob’s page are all the deaths *known* on whatever date. They are what they are and they don’t get updated retrospectively. The update *is* the next total number known on the next day.

    And so yeah, because if reporting lag, you can NEVER take the total number of deaths *known*on day X, subtract the number *known* on day X-1 and call that a daily death count for day X. Because some deaths that happened on day X-2 (or X-3,...), for example, weren’t known on day X-1 but *are* known on day X. Plus many reports for deaths that occurred on day X won’t be at the CDC on day X. You just get a meaningless mess when you do that.

    If I want to know how many people died today, I need to add up all the reports of deaths that occurred today, ie whose reports are DATED today. These will reach the CDC over a period of 1-2 weeks, so the numbers before then are always at least somewhat incomplete. That’s why separate data sets are kept for this type of statistical analysis.

  3. #1623
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    And so yeah, because if reporting lag, you can NEVER take the total number of deaths *known*on day X, subtract the number *known* on day X-1 and call that a daily death count for day X. Because some deaths that happened on day X-2 (or X-3,...), for example, weren’t known on day X-1 but *are* known on day X. Plus many reports for deaths that occurred on day X won’t be at the CDC on day X. You just get a meaningless mess when you do that.
    just really mangled
    Indeed...

    These will reach the CDC over a period of 1-2 weeks, so the numbers before then are always at least somewhat incomplete.
    Right. So if I want to know how many people died today I’ll need to wait to weeks. Isn’t that what I just said you tried to say but was not clear or are we both clearly being unclear with what we’re clearly trying to say?

  4. #1624
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cody Annino View Post
    That would certainly be racist and probably xenophobic
    Haven't you been tracking the developing story? The Kung Flu was racist at birth, especially when it was pointed out that it originated in the PRC. Now, it's doubled down on racism because it disproportionally affects black people.

  5. #1625
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cody Annino View Post
    Arrest made as protesters call for North Carolina businesses to reopen

    This just in on Police State news: Raleigh Police in North Carolina arrest peaceful protesters and then address the incident on their twitter, stating that "protesting is non-essential." Man, if only we had a constitutionally protected right to assemble and protest.
    Protesting is non essential? God damn, they are showing the Russians and the Chinese how it's done.

  6. #1626
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    Quote Originally Posted by abduality View Post
    Thought-provoking piece. Read it before Medium takes it down:

    Ground Zero: When the Cure is Worse than the Disease
    Certainly thought provoking, and good for moving the conversation forward.

    If one of his theses is true (the idea that hospitals are a primary vector for transmission), the irony is spectacular. But it makes good sense - hospitals found a particularly intense form of mass gathering.

    It also provides a good answer to the mystery involved in Rip's observation: We haven't merely overestimated the virus's transmission - we've completely failed to appreciate the nuance of its dynamics (well, some hospitals have; many haven't).

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Therefore, it's not reasonable to expect close to a million deaths, especially since this goddamn thing has been here 3 months and only 23,000 are dead so far (2.3% of a million), while 20 million of us are now unemployed.

  7. #1627
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    Quote Originally Posted by CommanderFun View Post
    Protesting is non essential? God damn, they are showing the Russians and the Chinese how it's done.
    Question of the month: How do they find people who want to be these kind of cops?

  8. #1628
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Question of the month: How do they find people who want to be these kind of cops?
    Pretty sure those folks are fighting to get on the job.

  9. #1629
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    Those people will be the enemy, in New America.

  10. #1630
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Question of the month: How do they find people who want to be these kind of cops?
    It's the same old story as the military, very few are willing to do the job. At some point, the standards slide down to fit those willing to do the job. Add to that, time and effort is poorly paid. In my area, a entry level handyman makes more than a seasoned cop. With getting cursed, low paid and crappy hours, who would want to be a LEO? We collectively have only ourselves to blame.

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