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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #1641
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    • starting strength seminar april 2024
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    I’ve heard twice on the radio today that social distancing measures are now suggested til 2022 hahaha this won’t last much longer. But hey at least they are finally acknowledging that people are still gonna get this once they let us all back out.

  2. #1642
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jovan Dragisic View Post
    I'm far from being an expert in tallying this, but Sweden has 114 deaths today. It seems to me, when I look at their stats on Worldometer, that they seem to have a decrease in daily reported deaths on the weekends and holidays. Then some kind of spike at the beginning of each week, then another drop as the weekend comes and so on. Looks like this 77, 17, 12 drop was a result of the holidays, and the current spike is due to more deaths being reported once the weekly tallying starts. Or whatever. Also, I've yet to find this 3154 number for the US, today is supposed to be the worst yet, with a little over 2200 deaths.
    Entirely plausible for Sweden. An updated set of numbers would be 114, 96, 106, 77, 17, 12, 20, 114. Is it increasing, or basically flat for 8 days? I don't know, but it doesn't look like exponential growth.

    Yeah, Lazytroll37 has written pages and pages on why that number (3154) was wrong (and I'm sure it was wrong). If you look at the WHO data (which I'm sure I will be told is also wrong) from the last several days you see: 1895, 1925, 1931, 1920, 1528, 1504. That looks kind of flat or maybe even decreasing. Which was kind of my point from a few days ago - maybe we hit the peak already. I don't know; maybe we didn't. I never said we did, only that having hit the peak already would be the best case scenario. I thought that was kind of hard to argue, but a wall of words from Lazytroll37 showed otherwise. In any case, repeatedly claiming with authority that we haven't hit the peak yet, or we aren't in the thick of it, or whatever in the absence of the ability to predict the future is kind of silly for someone who teaches statistics.

    I wonder if we'll all get a lecture on prediction models again?

  3. #1643
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    I hope so! He's so much fun!

  4. #1644
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Question of the month: How do they find people who want to be these kind of cops?
    World has no short supply of sadistic, stupid Biff Tannen types.

  5. #1645
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    Sep 2015
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    The so-called "prediction" models should be an embarrassment to those who built them. It boggles the mind how anyone could defend them.

    The officially sanctioned IHME model is a joke. Set aside the fact its death projections were revised from 240K to 60K within a matter of days. Just look at its uncertainty bounds. I mean, how is it useful? For tomorrow, it's prediction for nationwide hospital bed demand ranges from 13K to 181K...right, let me plan across two orders of magnitude.

  6. #1646
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    Jan 2019
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    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    Regardless of whether what he's stating is common knowledge, and without focusing on blame for our predicament, what do you think of his claim that current policy isn't rational given the evidence?
    It's unrelated to the main topic of his post.

    Personally, I think physical interaction cannot be banned any longer. For the time being, there need to be guidelines on sanitary practices (e.g. mask wearing, 6 feet of separation, hand washing at regular intervals, regular facility cleaning) which, if followed, will shield businesses from lawsuits by their customers and workers.

  7. #1647
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    Personally, I think physical interaction cannot be banned any longer.
    Lazytroll has lost Shiva. And when you've lost Shiva, maybe he will leave, as he's promised 3 times.

  8. #1648
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob Waskis View Post

    I wonder if we'll all get a lecture on prediction models again?
    No lecture from me. But to illustrate the state of virus prediction models consider:

    Predicting a roulette wheel. One way to go about it is to measure and track every physical parameter of the wheel and the rooms environment and solve all the dynamic equations. People have attempted this as a “cheat” with very limited success. It was based on the idea that some wheels run less true than others.

    Or you can apply very basic probability theory and model a roulette wheel extremely accurately without knowing any physics or engineering. That’s how casinos calculate odds.

    What you can’t do is apply a probability model to a complex problem if you don’t know the parameters.

    We’ve destroyed the entire global economy based on a roulette wheel probability model without knowing the number of positions the ball can land in.

  9. #1649
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    Jan 2014
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob Waskis View Post
    Haven’t changed your numbers? You’re all over the map.

    First you said “The seasonal flu typically kills around 30,000 people each year”.
    Then, when we had 22,000 deaths you said "you already have as many deaths *right now* as in a fairly standard flu season".
    I called you out and said, “The mean estimated deaths for 2010-2019 is just over 33,000”.
    You then doubled down and said, “That makes the current COVID-19 numbers "pretty typical" for a flu season in my book -- certainly not atypical.”

    --- So what’s a typical/standard flu season? Is it 30K, or just somewhere between zero and infinity?

    Your argument has flip-flopped so many times I don't even know what it is anymore.

    Way back when, said “my view of this situation is data-driven and quantitative”.

    --- Got it, you have firmly established your position as someone who relies on data to make decisions.

    But then you made a bunch of posts and got called out for using phrases like, “This is almost certainly true… The need for a ventilator will usually be… I haven't been able to find the exact numbers… I think I found one very small study… I also recall another Chinese study… which presumably means… But both of these suggest… reasonable first approximation”.

    --- So maybe you don’t need firm data to draw conclusions and make inferences.

    But then you said “But we have concrete *data* from multiple countries about the infectiousness and lethality of the virus, so we *know*”.

    --- So concrete data is now important again.

    But then you made a prediction on fatalities “with obviously significant uncertainty”.

    --- So maybe the data isn’t that concrete after all and that’s not important.

    But then you said “you can NEVER take the total number of deaths *known*on day X, subtract the number *known* on day X-1 and call that a daily death count for day X. … You just get a meaningless mess when you do that.”

    --- So we’re back to needing really exact data.

    But then you pivoted again and data integrity became less important when you said “Obviously, this is just a back-of-the-envelope calculation to gain some intuition… happens at ~70%… roughly 50%... typical IFR of 0.07%... around or below 0.01%... between 19 million and 68 million… relatively low… a large percentage… about 230 million… around 5.7x… maybe 3.8x… around 21.7x higher… around 920,000…”

    --- So do we need perfectly accurate data or not to draw conclusions professor? Make up your damn mind.
    So you’re saying you were wrong about the daily death rates, right?

  10. #1650
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    Apr 2020
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    starting strength coach development program
    Came across this article today. The police are now treating working out in a gym as a crime. People are telling police they are just cleaning a gym instead of working out in order to avoid being arrested or fined. A few weeks ago this would seem like it was taken from a fictional sequel to Orwell's 1984, now it's a real news article. How crazy is this?

    Coronavirus: Was Elmhurst Gym Open? | Elmhurst, IL Patch

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