COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 17

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #161
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    • texas starting strength seminar september 2020
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    There will not ever be accurate data. We still don't have accurate data for the most common infectious viruses. The cruise ship data is the best we will ever get.

    This "flattening of the curve" bullshit is an influenza response protocol that depends on the seasonality of the influenza virus and some major assumptions to maybe, possibly work if things go just right. As to preparation time, why would you expect them to effectively prepare now when they have refused to before now?

    And yes, if the curve is flattened, there will likely be greater opportunities for the virus to mutate into a more deadly strain.

    The evaluation metrics are all specific to the flu as well. It's like evaluating a mule based on race horse evaluation metrics. That mule may be just fine for a mule, but if you think it should be a thoroughbred horse, it will look an ungodly aberration.

  2. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    The cruise ship data is the best we will ever get.
    Lets extrapolate based on the cruise ship data. Say 20% of people get infected, of which 1% are fatalities.

    For the US:
    • 327 million population
    • 65.4 million infected
    • 654,000 die

    For comparison, FastStats - Deaths and Mortality :
    • 647,457 from heart disease
    • 599,108 from cancer


    I'm not putting any value judgements on those figures, just putting some numbers out for comparison. Acknowledge there are significant assumptions at play here.

    I'm not in the US, I'm in a small remote Country with very few cases so far.

  3. #163
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    Quote Originally Posted by Geedubu View Post
    I don’t see or hear anyone talking about the possibility that we have been exposed to this for some time. Doesn’t it seem plausible that this thing has been around since before November 2019. That is when the first known reported and tested case was recorded in China. Must have had at lease several hundred cases before this guy hit the hospital right. Seems reasonable to me this thing has been all over the world and was confused or mixed in with the more common flu and other sicknesses and untested. Now that we are testing and counting deaths shits hitting the fan- bet thousands of us have already had it thinking it was just the normal course of things or have it and have no symptoms. I know it doesn’t solve anything but thought it was good for thought- wish you all good health and some ease in the coming future- now go Squat!!
    Wouldn't explain all of the dying older people in cases like Italy....you would have seen dozens of Italys and Wuhans happen already if it was in large circulation already.
    Even in lowly China, they saw an out of control epidemic.

    By now, you would have seen a whole retirement home/assisted living facility all come down with "the flu" at the same time and all die in short order.
    That would make the news for sure.
    It wouldn't take much in a "free" modern 1st world country for the local health care providers and/or press to put 1 and 1 together when something like that went down.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    And the number of unreported/untested/asymptomatic cases is quite likely 10x that number, while we're pretty sure of the deaths. So, do that math too.
    Yes, it drives the lethality rate way down ... to almost to like, I hate to say it, the flu.

    I guess we can't deny that a bunch of elderly people are dying from SOMETHING new at a higher rate than previously (i.e. death stats are probably pretty good).
    As you said, death stats should be tangible. So that is different.

    Seems like we should be quarantining old people, say anyone over 65. And like in a hard core draconian way.
    Not they would prevent the further spreading so much, but to buffer the number of admissions to the hospitals when the eventually come down with it.

  4. #164
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    Feb 2017
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    We should be glad our government had no real plan for this epidemic. The GS-whatevers hired for such things all seem to have bought-in to "quarantines don't work." Fortunately they've either changed their minds or have been ignored, because China and S. Korea show they can work. Actually anyone who isn't a jackass can tell you quarantines work.

    The UK bureaucrats have a careful plan they worked on ahead of time, and it is insane. I wish Trump had jumped on this sooner, but his willingness to move fast and make corrections as needed is very encouraging.

  5. #165
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    This is a terribly naive assumption -- that our government is actually capable of an accurate assessment of the data (despite the fact that the data is complete shit), and would then act with absolutely correct measures designed by selfless heroes working only for the benefit of The People. You must be 12.
    No, thats not my assumption. I assume politicians act in their own best interest. It just so happens, in this case, their best interest is in line with the rest of the country. To not get sick. But, there is also an election right around the corner, and taking drastic action could cause drastic economic damage. Since I doubt Trump is concerned with his image, he figures the only way he could lose this election is if the economy tanks beforehand.

    Now, are they making the correct calls? I dont know, but I assure you they are making the calls they feel will allow them to be re-elected.

  6. #166
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    Oct 2018
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    I think it's a factor in their situation. The travel.
    Hi Mark,
    no I can't tell you the number but I can tell you that since the very beginning chinese people has disappeared. They have done what their government told them: to stay at home. Every restaurant/store is closed and there is no chinese who has been taken to hospitals. The average age mortality is 80. The real problem here is the fact that e.r. are full of people, we don't have enough ventilators, masks.. and the system is going to collapse soon. That's why we have to stay at home all day and we can go out only for specified issues. It's a very difficult time here and I don't know when we'll be able to return to our normal lives (and train). We are in a very bad situation because of this virus but most of all because of our(s) governments and their cuts to health.

  7. #167
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    Damn it! This is getting irritating, my library just closed until April 15th and I had books to pick up.

  8. #168
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  9. #169
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    My first question was how homeless people will comply with an order to stay in their homes. But then I read they are exempt from the order! So a wonderful vector of disease spread (and looting) is allowed to go about its usual business.

  10. #170
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    It sounds to me like you lack the imagination to understand the rock and a hard place your society is jammed into right now by this intense tidal wave of infection. It can cause chaos and NOBODY wins if it does. Its maybe damned if you do, definitely fucked if you dont, at this point.

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