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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #1761
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    It is not. I think it originally happened around page 100 with a China-Nazi equivalency.
    There had been early on already a jackboot allusion, deleted after some minutes

    Regarding social distancing: if implemented soon enough I think it is a very viable option. If you wait too long probably not, at least it wasn't in italy.

    But now we suffer the opposite Problem: they wait too long to reopen. It is a crying shame

  2. #1762
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunoLawerence View Post
    This will be easiest to address everyone at once for these wonderful replies. Quite simply, it was not as much of a serious question , but rather me simply pointing out a logical fallacy. My point was that there appeared to be "social distancing" from what I have been seeing in everyday life. Mark then tried to point out that he has been to Lowe's which he states was packed full of people, none of which were wearing a mask. Others above are arguing that they are still going to Walmart, gun shops, and weekly BBQs and no social distancing or behavior changing appears to be happening around them. It appears that the argument people are attempting to make here is that no one's behavior is changing therefore social distancing guidelines can't account for the lower number of cases predicted in earlier models. That could be a valid argument to make. I don't agree with that premise, but I can only account for what I have observed around me.

    However, and here is the catch, if this is the argument you were attempting to make and none of the guidelines are being followed anyway, what exactly are you complaining about? Isn't life going on as usual for you?




    I was clearly talking about the original model regarding if the virus spread throughout the country unchecked without social interventions taking place. Please see above, are we as a nation following the guidelines or not.




    Agreed, we have been adding capacity regarding the manufacturing of PPEs and ventilators. There is still a problem with our testing capacity and other issues regarding failures at the federal level that I will address below. But please refer to the recent news article regarding nursing being suspended for refusing to treat covid patients because they were not supplied proper PPE.

    Nurses union says workers were suspended for refusing to help coronavirus patients without N95 masks | TheHill

    If there was no problem, they would not be placed in this position.



    Contract tracing isn't that difficult of a concept. It simply means that if someone tests positive they are able to trace back the people they have been in close contact with so that they too can be tested. If those individuals also come back positive they get quarantined, and so on..... That is something that is infinitely more difficult to do when large portions of the population are positive. This, however, relies on adequate testing. When businesses go back to work, employees need to have been tested.

    As for what the government should have done differently, perhaps take this thing seriously from the onset. I remember several weeks going by where trump was calling this a hoax and downplaying it substantially. I would have like to have seen testing brought to the forefront sooner, as we are still behind in capacity. We needed a more centralized, organized response from the federal government regarding PPEs and ventilators, instead of leaving it up to the governors of individual states. Our current approach led to individual states bidding against each other as well as the federal government to procure these supplies, driving up the costs as well as creating some areas that still do not have enough equipment. Please refer to the nursing story above. Also, as a bit of an aside, why was Jared Kushner (the president's son in law) in charge of any of this? Isn't this the type of shit he was accusing Biden's son of?

    I also don't like the fact that the federal government allowed basically anyone to come up with an antibody test and put it to market. Currently this is allowing a lot of shitty testing that is not accurate which makes this problem worse, and not better. Also, perhaps we could have vetted medical research regarding approved treatments and medications. Hydroxycholoroquine turns out to be not all that effective.

    I watched Trump's press conference today and I generally agree with the approach of "reopening the country". However, without adequate testing I don't think we are there yet and we will end up prolonging not only the health implications, but also the effects on the economy.



    We don't face pandemics very often, so this is a bit of a false choice don't you think? Also, my sudden shift is not really a shift. It is more of a frustration regarding the lack of leadership we have. The lack of leadership that is going to make this worse regardless. I agree with the quarantine, which will work if he have a plan in place. I agree this would only work in the short-term. But given the multiple failures that we have given our lack of leadership perhaps allowing this thing to run rampant causing a few million deaths as the original model predicted would be the better approach.







    I'm only tossing you in here Robin because I have never seen you post anything close to an actual thought. What is it that you intend to accomplish with your meaningless attempts of being clever?
    An example of one clear thought I made in a previous post, which you obviously didn’t read:

    “This is a blatant power grab”.

    So that deals with that.

    My intention re. you was to highlight your dishonour given that you sought (as an adult) praise and respect on this forum for extending your own mother basic kindness.

    Here’s another thought for you - dishonour is not useful during a pandemic, or in life in general.

    I’ve answered your question, now answer mine: did you get your medal of honour for being kind to your mother yet?

  3. #1763
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    Social distancing works for sure.
    I don’t believe that is what is being debated. The issue lies in the worst case models that were used to grind the US economy to a halt.

    On one side you have the contention that the model was quite correct and the policies have saved millions of lives and the subsequently worse economic fallout. Therefore the currently enacted measures were both necessary and effective.

    On the other side, the model was wrong due to incorrect assumptions, primarily an incorrect late seed date and highly exaggerated IFR. The numbers being seen now are the same numbers that would be seen without the government created economic collapse. The current measures are both unnecessary and ineffective.

  4. #1764
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    I'm not making an argument. I'm merely allowing you to make a fool of yourself.
    “Allowed”. The word de jour! Brilliant podcast today Rip, as usual.

  5. #1765
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jovan Dragisic View Post
    Social distancing works for sure. Eastern European countries have all imposed much stricter distancing measures sooner than Western European ones. They now have orders of magnitude less CFRs as percentages of population. They primarily did that because they have weaker funding of healthcare systems, so distancing was seen as the best option. Whether it was worth it in the long run is another matter, but you have a lot of data from all over the world that shows distancing is effective in stopping the spread.
    Interesting. I'm still not totally sold on how it was implemented in the United States though. Easing into guidelines like these is a whole lot better than going balls-to-the-wall right off the get-go.

    A quick look at the Wikipedia page for social distancing shows that there are multiple strategies for implementing it, from keeping six feet apart to completely surrounding a town. Maybe the solution in the United States is to have the Army to surround New York City and a couple other major urban areas until this thing burns itself out. Isn't that how Camus did it in The Plague?

    Social distancing - Wikipedia

  6. #1766
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunoLawerence View Post
    However, and here is the catch, if this is the argument you were attempting to make and none of the guidelines are being followed anyway, what exactly are you complaining about? Isn't life going on as usual for you?
    Did your mom have any children that lived?

    Most of us don't get paid to go shopping at Lowes or Walmart.

  7. #1767
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunoLawerence View Post
    Contract tracing isn't that difficult of a concept. It simply means that if someone tests positive they are able to trace back the people they have been in close contact with so that they too can be tested. If those individuals also come back positive they get quarantined, and so on..... That is something that is infinitely more difficult to do when large portions of the population are positive. This, however, relies on adequate testing.
    I get the concept - it's the application that I'm still fuzzy on. Let's use me as an example: I get CV today. Everyone who lives in my house knows it and gets tested or self isolates for a couple of weeks. That seems pretty straightforward. However, I went to the supermarket last night. Does everyone in the supermarket now have to get tested? How are they notified? Do the people they go home to also have to get tested? Does the supermarket itself close for "deep cleaning"?

    Quote Originally Posted by BrunoLawerence View Post
    When businesses go back to work, employees need to have been tested.
    Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by BrunoLawerence View Post
    I would have like to have seen testing brought to the forefront sooner, as we are still behind in capacity.
    We needed a more centralized, organized response from the federal government regarding PPEs and ventilators, instead of leaving it up to the governors of individual states.
    I also don't like the fact that the federal government allowed basically anyone to come up with an antibody test and put it to market.
    Also, perhaps we could have vetted medical research regarding approved treatments and medications.
    So you want the government to:
    1. Take direct control of testing people
    2. Take over the supply chain for masks, gloves, and ventilators
    3. Have approval authority of any and all antibody tests sold/used
    4. Conduct all the trials for medical treatments for CV

    Is this a correct summary of your position?

  8. #1768
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  9. #1769
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    As I've already wrote, Virginia isn't really in lock down and isn't really practicing social distancing. But this is the best I've seen so far: As I was coming out of the Martin's food store in Waynesboro, a woman who looked like a nurse coming off work, went to enter the store, only to find that entrance had been converted to an 'Exit Only' She shook her head and said “This virus crap is getting ridiculous” It made me smile :-)

  10. #1770
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob Waskis View Post
    Cuomo, Murphy, Pelosi and that ilk are saying the same thing - the key is more testing. I have yet to see any explanation on precisely how it is the key or how the results will be used.

    I'm pretty sure I won't like the answer in any case.
    If we take something like Ebola as a contrast, by the time you were contagious you had a fever, so we were able to do effective population based screening with thermal thermometers. That doesnt work for this virus because of the length of the incubation period creates an unusually long period of asymptomatic contagiousness. We therefore cannot identify people who are vectors for transmission without widespread frequent testing.

    The approach to then returning to something like normal while managing the risk of a second wave of the outbreak is to conduct widespread frequent testing throughout the population to identify these asymptomatic cases (I've seen once a week suggested) This enables us to identify people who should go into self-isolation and do contact tracing to identify everyone they may have infected. The expectation is to do this effectively nationwide would required 1 million tests a week. I suspect that is an overestimation, as there will surely be regional variability the rate of decay of the problem.

    I'm sure the median response on this site will be to complain about that is a violation of civil liberties, but that is the reason.

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