COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[porcopedico]

Unfortunately we'll have to wait until the end of 2020 to truly determine each country's success in dealing with the crisis. Time will tell.

We might have to wait even longer. Depending on a country's strategy it might take up to 3 years or a vaccine to reach herd immunity. Whichever comes first.

And even then there will be a covid related mortality as with any disease. This has to be accepted

[Robin UK]

Bigger picture muse:

Shanghai, the megacity of 30 million people has done better than most at managing the outbreak. As of Feb. 27, it reported 337 infections and 3 deaths, without a single case of unknown origin.

"Without early preparedness, an outbreak could have been disastrous," said Zhang Wenhong, head of the Shanghai Medical Treatment Expert Team and director of the Infectious Disease Department at prestigious Huashan Hospital.

Yet China could have warned the rest of the world much earlier of the outbreak - but chose not to. Thanks China. This crosses the line of self-interest v selfishness in my opinion.

The Code of Hammurabi applied in diluted format = China should pay compensation. Trump will probably take that line.

More importantly, a Law of Evolution - only the strong survive. Other countries should’ve had their socio-political and economic shit in better order in the first place.

[jfsully]

My apologies. My question was - what is the case and infection fatality rates for COVID and how much higher are they than for typical seasonal influenza?

CDC now considers all flu's Covid 19. We are fucked.

The CFR and IFR for COVID will not be known until this is mostly past us and we have had time to sift and sort data. Much of the back and forth on this board illustrates how erratic and inconsistent real-time epidemiologic data is.

CFR for seasonal influenza (though it varies a lot with each strain) is generally around 0.1%. Most estimates for CFR of covid appear to be settling around 1%. Some regions have reported MUCH higher CFRs for COVID, like 2-5%, but that is probably an artifact of the limited availability of testing (so only the sickest were tested).

I don’t know what the IFR is for a typical seasonal flu. This number is hard to find, probably because there is significant seasonal variation and not much appetite for doing big expensive studies every year on an illness whose properties we have a pretty good handle on. If anyone here has a solid IFR for seasonal influenza, please provide the citation.

So while IFR is an important number for individuals (“If i get exposed to this thing, what are my chances of dying?”), to compare the epidemiology and virulence of the illness with flu or others, we will probably be stuck using CFR, which is also an important number for individuals (“if I get sick with this thing, what are my chances of dying?”).

[dbm77]

Good Sir Rippetoe,

This is an information post regarding the employment situation of bureaucrats.

If you look at this link,

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

On page 3/41 of the pdf it states "Federal government employment rose by 18,000 in March, reflecting the hiring of 17,000 workers for
the 2020 Census."

I saw another report which I cannot find right now regarding the March -750,000 jobs, broken down by sectors, the government added 1,200 jobs during the month of March with the service industry losing a massive amount. I will not comment on what I think April will look like as this is an informational post not political.

So 18,000 - 17,000 seasonal hiring = approximately 1,000 (or 1,200) jobs gained for bureaucrats during the month of March.

I'll leave you with a quote my mother told me when I was young, "Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way."

[wiigelec]

Looks like there's going to be an annoying confound to deal with. I believe that some places are now actually experiencing lower than normal death rates because of less accidents/homicide, and less healthcare industry induced deaths.

Irrefutable proof that it would be much safer for us as a species to live like this permanently...

[johnst_nhb]

Look on the bright side. Last month was the first March without a school shooting in 18 years.

Did you see Dana Loesch’s response to this?

Coronavirus Proves Guns Aren’t Responsible For Mass Shootings – Def-Con News

[Mark Rippetoe]

So while IFR is an important number for individuals (“If i get exposed to this thing, what are my chances of dying?”), to compare the epidemiology and virulence of the illness with flu or others, we will probably be stuck using CFR, which is also an important number for individuals (“if I get sick with this thing, what are my chances of dying?”).

Coronavirus: CDC reviewing ‘stunning’ universal testing results from Boston homeless shelter

This is all the health bureaucrat could distill from the situation:

“It tells you, you don’t know who’s at risk. You don’t know what you need to do to contain the virus if you don’t actually have the details or facts,” said Marty Martinez, Boston’s chief of Health and Human Services.

[Dillon Spencer]

Czech delivery people and postal workers can now respond to domestic violence during quarantine - Prague, Czech Republic

Let me be perfectly clear here before I regret failing to me too-proof anything I say that might one day potentially be misconstrued: I'm not against this idea in principle, but holy shit Big Brother is real. I'm disappointed. This is exactly the sort of Gestapo-esque thinking that the legendary Czech resistance fought so valiantly against during WWII. R.I.P. UVOD.

I understand that you start by saying you're not opposed to the idea in principle, but then go on to compare an effort to help victims of domestic abuse to the Gestapo... You don't want to be misconstrued, but how exactly is that supposed to be construed? There's quite a gulf between those two stances.

Domestic violence is notoriously hard to catch, as it happens in the home and is underreported by victims. Earlier posters have pointed to reports of domestic violence being on the rise in various parts of the US since the lockdown. Why would we expect it to be different there? I don't know the exact lockdown situation in the Czech Republic right now, but from the sounds of the article the only people that may be in a position to spot the signs (besides family members) are postal workers and delivery people. For the most part it just sounds like they're receiving training on how to spot the signs, and direction to keep their eyes peeled. They're not kicking down doors and performing warrantless searches. If they think they spot something in the course of doing their regular job, they're receiving guidance on whether to refer someone to an app with resources, or if the situation warrants reporting to the police.

I mean, I'm a teacher. I've received training on how to spot signs of abuse, and am required by law to report it if I suspect anything or a student says something. I've never had to, but I have colleagues that have. It's something we take incredibly seriously, and certainly don't do on a whim. The legal requirement to report exists in my province, and I'm pretty sure the rest of them are the same. There's damn near a million of us in the country. Doctors, I know, have the same requirement. That's a whole lot of snitches just waiting to turn in their neighbours, but despite how I'm sure many of you feel about Canadia, we thus far remain concentration camp free.

To be clear, I'm sure you don't believe domestic abusers should be protected. I'm just pushing back because I feel like a lot of people are looking for tyranny around every corner these days. I fully support being vigilant about government overreach, but I think your outrage and disappointment is better spent elsewhere. I don't know about various professional requirements to report abuse in the US, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are already millions of people that are legally required to watch for abuse and report it. You (and others) probably just haven't thought about it until now because you haven't had reason to.

To me, Cody Annino getting snitched on for going in to clean and maintain his own gym has far more of a Gestapo-esque stench to it than this. I know we've already proven Godwin's law a few times here (although less than I'd have expected in 182 pages. Great job team!), but let's not get too cavalier with the Nazi comparisons.

[Mark Rippetoe]

Dillon, you don't actually think the postal workers are being told to report ONLY domestic abuse, do you?

[jfsully]

Coronavirus: CDC reviewing ‘stunning’ universal testing results from Boston homeless shelter

This is all the health bureaucrat could distill from the situation:

Not surprising a bureaucrat would say something vapid. Although it's possible he said something more sophisticated and the reporter pulled a snippet to try to make whatever point they thought they were making.

Anyone who's been paying attention would not find the results of that testing "shocking." We know there are lots of asymptomatic carriers, have known that for a while now. The testing at Pine Street Inn doesn't help us determine IFR, however, or shed new light on the rates. The population at the homeless shelter is not a random sample. You might expect that they have higher rates of comorbidities and be more susceptible to symptoms from the virus, but it's also conceivable that this is a hardier population than average, or that the sicker among the homeless are avoiding the shelters for fear of the virus. More importantly, however, they have been screening at the shelters for symptoms, and anyone with fever or cough doesn't stay at the shelter. So if you test everyone, every positive will be an asymptomatic positive. Some of them will get sick later, a few very sick. So while it does illustrate the point that there are carriers, it doesn't really quantify it for us in a clear way.