COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[Shiva Kaul]

The CDC distinguishes between “confirmed” (by positive laboratory test) and “probable” (without positive laboratory test) deaths. This is in accordance with the updated ICD-10-CM guidelines published on April 1st, which reserves code U07.1 exclusively for confirmed cases.

It is time to stop contradicting those facts, by linking to outdated interim memos posted on March 24th, which are not part of canonical medical practice.

Uh, care to clarify this quip? What misinformation? The US is using the same sloppy-ass coding as Italy did, which perfectly explains why we're now suddenly the big 'winners' in terms of body count.

Actually, the US and Italy follow different coding standards (ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM, respectively). And the coding guidelines in the US were updated on April 1st, after the peak of cases in Bergamo. And those guidelines don’t have the “sloppy-ass coding” to which you’re referring. Finally, of the 35,443 reported COVID-19 deaths in the US, only 4,226 are marked as probable, so their inclusion is not what makes us the big “winner”.

Are you saying, in the same tired way, that there is no incentive for hospitals to encourage COVID-19 attribution?

Rip, your claims about hospital incentives and coercion of doctors may yet be true. However, Fomento’s statement of April 18th, was that a “positive test isn’t even needed”, which utterly ignores the clear distinctions made by the CDC, and links to the outdated memo.

[jfsully]

Are you sure about this considering we don’t know the actual CFR of covid19 and the study may have missed up to 30% of positive cases?

Am I sure? Of course not, since nobody is sure what the numbers really will be.

But, given what we see in the hospital when people get sick with covid, it’s more severe than with seasonal flu. Because we also see people with seasonal flu (a lot) and know what that looks like. This is not quantitative, but is consistent with higher CFR for COVID. And none of the populations tested, to my knowledge so far, have come up with a CFR for COVID anywhere near as low as the flu’s 0.1%. And the sensitivity of the tests is better than we thought it was (based on symptomatic people testing negative, then retesting positive).

Im not sure what the first sentence fragment you posted above was referring to, maybe asymptomatic carriers? Since we don’t really know what the IFR of influenza is, I’ll go ahead and take back my claim that the IFR for COVID is higher. It seems likely, but maybe can’t be determined. If you want to say it’s equal to or lower than influenza, you’ll have to find a solid IFR for seasonal influenza, which I haven’t seen.

[Soule]

Am I sure? Of course not, since nobody is sure what the numbers really will be.

But, given what we see in the hospital when people get sick with covid, it’s more severe than with seasonal flu. Because we also see people with seasonal flu (a lot) and know what that looks like. This is not quantitative, but is consistent with higher CFR for COVID. And none of the populations tested, to my knowledge so far, have come up with a CFR for COVID anywhere near as low as the flu’s 0.1%. And the sensitivity of the tests is better than we thought it was (based on symptomatic people testing negative, then retesting positive).

Im not sure what the first sentence fragment you posted above was referring to, maybe asymptomatic carriers? Since we don’t really know what the IFR of influenza is, I’ll go ahead and take back my claim that the IFR for COVID is higher. It seems likely, but maybe can’t be determined. If you want to say it’s equal to or lower than influenza, you’ll have to find a solid IFR for seasonal influenza, which I haven’t seen.

Fair enough, just checking in case i missed something there.

[Mark Rippetoe]

Actually, the US and Italy follow different coding standards (ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM, respectively). And the coding guidelines in the US were updated on April 1st, after the peak of cases in Bergamo. And those guidelines don’t have the “sloppy-ass coding” to which you’re referring. Finally, of the 35,443 reported COVID-19 deaths in the US, only 4,226 are marked as probable, so their inclusion is not what makes us the big “winner”.

Here’s How Much Downstate New York Is Skewing the United States’ Coronavirus Numbers | News and Politics

Rip, your claims about hospital incentives and coercion of doctors may yet be true. However, Fomento’s statement of April 18th, was that a “positive test isn’t even needed”, which utterly ignores the clear distinctions made by the CDC, and links to the outdated memo.

I'll speak with him about that, if you'll post the updated guidelines again.

[Noah Ebner]

Actually, the US and Italy follow different coding standards (ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM, respectively). And the coding guidelines in the US were updated on April 1st, after the peak of cases in Bergamo. And those guidelines don’t have the “sloppy-ass coding” to which you’re referring. Finally, of the 35,443 reported COVID-19 deaths in the US, only 4,226 are marked as probable, so their inclusion is not what makes us the big “winner”.

Feds classify all coronavirus patient deaths as 'COVID-19' deaths

Are you a journalist for the NYT or something? You make 'fake news' blush at the ease with which you spew lies. Your portrait should appear next to the definitions of both "yellow journalism" and "weasel words".

[Shiva Kaul]

Here’s How Much Downstate New York Is Skewing the United States’ Coronavirus Numbers | News and Politics

I don't disagree with this.

I'll speak with him about that, if you'll post the updated guidelines again.

Can't. I'm avoiding primary documents in favor of misleading headlines from the NY Post, such as:

Feds classify all coronavirus patient deaths as 'COVID-19' deaths

Here. Not interested in rehashing. Stay confused, if you prefer.

[Mark Rippetoe]

Not interested in rehashing. Stay confused, if you prefer.

I understand completely. Now you know how I feel when Bruno and lazy post their shit.

[Sean Berry]

What happens when the vast majority (or at least just a simple majority) of people who catch this are in fact asymptomatic "typhoid marys"? Mass incarceration?

There is at least one on this board who would probably donate a large part of their paycheck to any cause that could guarantee such internment camps, and/or heap praise on the forward thinking policy maker that made it happen.

sb

[Noah Ebner]

I don't disagree with this.



Can't. I'm avoiding primary documents in favor of misleading headlines from the NY Post, such as:



Here. Not interested in rehashing. Stay confused, if you prefer.

So you do work for the NYT. Cool. You provided the logical equivalent of this argument: someone getting hit by a car and dying as a result of blunt force trauma WITH COVID is a covid-related death. That is the equal but opposite extreme of the "a 400 year-old obese smoker with high blood-pressure is admitted to the hospital because of covid and ..."

Misleading statements beget misleading headlines?! Sacre blue what has the world come to?! If only you read the media as closely as you read statistical appendixes, perhaps confusion could be avoided all-together.

[Shiva Kaul]

I understand completely. Now you know how I feel when Bruno and lazy post their shit.

Sero-prevalence is now the crucial topic of discussion (IMO). It portends the first high-quality statistical analysis, as well as the end of the lockdowns, considering what the data looks like thus far.

If trends in hospitalization, mortality, and sero-prevalence prevail without the end of lockdowns, then I'll gladly join the discussion about government oppression.