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Noah, while you "generously" draw whatever conclusions you desire, the authors are, in fact, fixing their flawed paper. (As mentioned in that Twitter thread, and also Science magazine.)
The field of statistics isn't broken. Your ability to discern good statistical arguments from bad ones - that is definitely broken.
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From the Science article above: "Bhattacharya says he is preparing an appendix that addresses the criticisms. But, he says, 'The argument that the test is not specific enough to detect real positives is deeply flawed.'
They aren't "fixing" shit, they're addressing the criticisms to tell you stats wonks why what you think is a big deal actually isn't. BIG difference.
Also from the same article above:
Bhattacharya and Bendavid have also collaborated with Neeraj Sood, a health policy expert at the University of Southern California, to do a similar study in Los Angeles county. They used the same antibody test on 846 people selected by a marketing firm to represent the county’s demographics. In a press release issued this week, they estimated that roughly 4% of the county’s adult population has antibodies to the virus—as many as 300,000 people. (Sood told Science that 35 subjects tested positive.)
EXACT SAME RESULTS. I'm still right and you're still wrong. Rip's smart enough to see through your antics w/r/t this particular question, but please stop trying to confuse people with 'fancy' statistics. It's not a good look.
The principle is that man is the rational animal and is capable of determining and choosing his own degree of risk taking. Not only can he choose, but that he must be free in order to choose. Using force against people to keep them in semi-incarceration prevents them from making rational decisions about their lives and hence is a direct threat to their lives. Covid is no different to any other kind of risk factor in life. The Governments task here is to test, trace, track and isolate those who have the virus-the blunt force of isolating everyone is neither moral nor practical.
Mike,
Sometimes things can just be funny, without peer-review.
Rip