COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 2158

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #21571
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    It is possible that in earlier times frequently smoking tobacco may have provided prophylactic protection against certain pathogens.
    A bit like shooting your self dead with some lead, but prevents a whole heap of diseases.


    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    What happens if or when Chinese grain reserves reach full capacity and their buying suddenly slows?
    Nothing the Chinese nation is always hungry, they cannot grow enough food for themselves and that is why they come down here buying property and dairies, their grain bins will never be full.

  2. #21572
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    Housing and land speculation in a financially healthy nation must be restricted to individuals and families; Banks, hedge funds, publicly traded companies, multinational organizations, foreign governments and real estate conglomerates will quickly destroy the financial health and enslave the people of any nation where they are allowed to speculate on land prices.
    The Cantillion effect.
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  3. #21573
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jenni View Post
    ...If we persist, as the original rebels did, we'll win...
    Well said.

    Quote Originally Posted by wal View Post
    A bit like shooting your self dead with some lead, but prevents a whole heap of diseases...
    Wal, how many people do you think die from smoking tobacco before the age of 50?

  4. #21574
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darren Nelson View Post
    U.S shelves will be mostly stocked with higher priced goods. Africa and parts of Asia will experience scarcity, and world agriculture output will grow at a lower rate.
    Do you have some on-the-ground info on the US livestock industry? In Europe we are seeing a decent year for cattle and poultry because meat prices are following grain prices, but the hog industry is getting hammered. There is still massive overcapacity keeping meat prices low, but the feed prices are hammering the small and medium producers fairly hard.

  5. #21575
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    What happens if or when Chinese grain reserves reach full capacity and their buying suddenly slows?
    This happened a few years ago when half of China’s hog herd was lost to African Swine Flu. China used the event to respond to Trumps tariffs by refusing to buy U.S. grain. Prices plummeted and large government payments were issued to farmers.

    China’s solution to ASF is to move away from small hog farms and build massive hog facilities. ASF is spread mostly by feeding contaminated flesh to hogs, common among mom and pop Chinese farms. The modern faculties feed corn and soybeans.

  6. #21576
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian Harlin View Post
    I have.

    Me too.

  7. #21577
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  8. #21578
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    Quote Originally Posted by wal View Post
    Anybody trained through covid yet?
    I probably have. Someone with it coughed into my face by accident, and then found out later they were infected at the time.

    My wife had it twice, and I'm not sure what social distancing rules were at the time, but it probably wasn't negative 7 inches.
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  9. #21579
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    Great write up Darren. I think the thing that is left out of your puzzle is the increase in freight costs for moving all our commodities. Bringing in fertilizer and taking out grain. I manage a grain elevator and agronomy station in Ohio. We burn a lot of diesel fuel and price is up. It's pretty easy to figure out. It is the job of commodity markets to stabilize production. In fuel, fertilizer, and grain commodities, the lowest cost producer wins every time. Assuming normal weather this year the US farmer is looking at tremendous opportunity to make a profit. Even with fertilizer and fuel inputs screaming higher.

    In our grain business we load soybeans in shipping containers to export to the Pacific Rim countries. We have had significant difficulties in getting freight and moving the damn boxes, but here it is Mid-May and my shipping season is almost over and the bins are empty and the containers are loaded and on boats. We figured it out. The market made it work.

    As wheat prices took off like a rocket this summer I was able to sell the wheat our grain elevator will buy from farmers. The mill paid almost the highest historical value they have ever paid for the wheat they will mill, well over $11 a bushel, but that is only a small part of the final cost of the goldfish crackers our wheat will go to produce. The farmer will grow it and I'll buy it and the market made it work.

    It's my job to go out and deal with risk and make money by making these commodities move around. Prices are up and yes I have been challenged every day to make my margin, but that's what makes it fun.

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  10. #21580
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    Not as a counterpoint to Jenni, but rather the follow through:

    Please do move away from urban centers, but do not disconnect. Surround yourself with capable people. Become as self sufficient as you can, but make friends and build community. Take tomatoes to your friend with laying hens. Give freely when you have too much, and take with gratitude when some has it to give.

    Case in point: I've been bucking and handloading oak to split later for firewood from a wonderful lady who needed a felled tree out of the way. Years ago, my grandfather and other men from the church helped her when her parents died and she couldn't take care of the furniture moving by herself. She found out my grandmother just went into the nursing home for rehab, and will go visit her now.

    There are two sayings I grew up with:

    "God helps those who help themselves."

    And

    "Give help, but only when asked."

    I think we will face war on a global scale soon, and I maintain it will be over food, predominantly. While you're building a charcoal kiln and raised beds, take some time to build a community and a servant's heart.

    I don't pray often, and I try not to pray flippantly. Before I go on duty, I ask for wisdom and sound judgement so that my decisions will be swift and my actions effective in both the short and long term. When I'm off duty, I seek the strength and perspective to acknowledge the lessons from my suffering and to be a good man.

    I'm the furthest from perfect, but even I have seen the positive impact this has had on what little I can make a difference in.

    Whatever or whomever you pray to or hold dear, I offer all this not to preach at you, but to provide encouragement and hope. Whatever comes, even though we of this board may be separated, I promise that I will shoulder a little of the load with you.

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