Originally Posted by
lazygun37
Again, I'm really not trying to be a jerk, but this is just a serious misunderstanding of the data. As I made explicitly clear in my post, the 5-day (approximately) doubling time applies only in the exponential growth phase. By using global numbers you are mixing up China, for example, with the rest of the world. Now China alone contributed around 80,000 of the cases you mention, and the case load in China was basically completely flat over this period. And that's because they are *not* in the exponential growth phase anymore. As I said in my post, they *have* taken the drastic steps that are needed to make suppression work, at least for now, i.e. at least for the short term. So subtract China's number off and look at the rest of the world. Then, going by your own numbers, you've got about 40,000 cases on 3/11, moving up to about 90,000 five days later. Which is more than doubling.