COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[Mark Rippetoe]

BUT, this Sweden thing (see my last post) starts going downhill, wouldn't surprise me that we (as a country) go right back to anarchy.

As the kids say, "Fixed that for you."

And NYCHD today: COVID-19: Data - NYC Health

[ltomo]

Here's a positive perspective on house arrest:

I cut my own hair today. It took about 45 minutes and actually turned out better than when I get it cut at Great Clips. I'll probably keep doing it myself and never go to the barber again.

If I make it to 92 like grandpa, that means the government will have saved $12,096 dollars over my lifetime (63 more years at $16 a haircut, once a month). If you factor in 2% inflation per year, the government will have saved me over $24,000.

Now, if I take that $192 a year ($16 a haircut x 12 months) and put it into a total market index fund that continues to grow at the historic 7%, the government will have saved me over $200,000 by the time I die, all because they forced me to cut my own hair.

Now I know what cognitive dissonance feels like.

[Frank_B]

That's 25% of Fire Code Occupancy, which includes staff.

Ordinarily, I’d just wake up at 3 A.M. and beat everyone there. No big deal. Now the hours are being modified so as to allow for more extensive cleaning... And I didn’t realize the occupancy was based on Fire Code... Why do I feel like every door to leading a productive life is quickly slamming shut in front of my eyes?

[Robert Santana]

War in Illinois. Which it has a proud history of down here in Little Egypt land. Illinois judge overturns Pritzker’s stay-at-home order | MyStateline.com

One can only hope that this spreads to Illinois' cousins NY and CA but let's not get our hopes up too much.

[Mark Rippetoe]

Here is the magnitude of the disaster: The SBA is "administering" the PPP loan program to the banks who are trying to get the money out to the businesses that qualify. As you would expect, the government is having problems.

From internal Texas Banking Association emails:

Afternoon Update as of 3:00 CDT
“PACING” PPP

We are now being told by SBA that their system is not overwhelmed, they are just “pacing” the input of loans. We are not sure what “pacing” is, but it has not worked most of the day. Many banks are receiving a similar message from SBA:

“E-Tran has not crashed: lenders are experiencing the pacing system SBA put in place to ensure all lenders, no matter the size, have equal access to the system and it is not overwhelmed. Please continue to try to input your loans.”

We have had a couple of banks report a pick-up in activity in the last half-hour. Please let us know if you see a significant change. Thank you!

Then, tonight about 8:00:

How To Put It Into Words?
I’ve been trying to come up with a polite way to describe what has transpired today, but I am tempted to use words in four-letter groupings that might be considered both foul and unprofessional. But then again, the more I think about how Round Two of PPP rolled out, it was both foul and unprofessional. So, let me just say it was a damn shame.

It was a shame that you, our banks, again committed your people and resources to help your customers, only to be let down by Washington again. As patriots, you continue to make investments in your communities, but you still can’t get basic answers about your fees and forgiveness for a program that is already in its second phase.

It was a shame, too, that banks heard from SBA at least three different reasons for the problems accessing E-TRAN today. But the kicker had to be “pacing.” Pacing? Sounds like SBA’s way of saying that things are not working without actually having to admit it. Getting constantly kicked out of the system, blank screens or not having access to the system at all is not about pacing. And dropping the bulk submission memo on Sunday afternoon when it was impossible to ask questions or to challenge it was just wrong.

But what was most shameful was that too many small businesses were not able to get the help they needed today. Banks with hundreds of loans to make in their communities were only able to only process a handful at best. Bank employees stood ready for hours to help small business owners desperate to save the jobs of their employees. Texas community bankers led the way in saving businesses and jobs in PPP Round One and we will do it again if Washington will let us.

Returning to “the better nature of our angels,” perhaps there are reasons for these problems that we don’t yet understand. It’s an emergency and we all want to help. So, we pray that tomorrow will be better; that Washington will pick up the pace; and that you will be enabled to do what you do best—serve your communities. Until that happens, we’ll keep up the fight.

IF you are able to get on, we are told SBA is continuing to take applications on a 24/7 basis until the PPP funds are expended.

Knowing that these difficulties are being experienced all across the federal system, more or less, this is a disaster that the government created, and which the government cannot fix.

[spacediver]

A political friend sent this article which pretty much sums it all up.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/art...rk_490025.html

This Pandemic Is Over. Let's Stop the Economic Suicide, and Get Back to Work

With the latest reports of plummeting death rates from all causes, this crisis is over.

Surely if the pandemic is over, we can go completely back to normal. After all, the pandemic is over, it's history, right?

From the piece:

A global study published in Israel by Professor Isaac Ben-Israel, chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and Council on Research and Development, shows that “the spread of the coronavirus declines to almost zero after 70 days—no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.”

The problem is, Professor Isaac Ben-Israel's piece gets one fact remarkably wrong:

It is interesting to note that this pattern, mainly the onset rapid growth and the following decline in the number of new daily patients, is still shared amongst countries that responded in significantly different ways.

This is demonstrated in the following graphs that illustrate the situation in Italy, a country that imposed a complete lockdown, as well as Sweden, whose lenient policy did not implement any kind of lockdown

This is blatantly false. Sweden has implemented significant physical distancing measures. It's just that most of them have been voluntary. So of course they're flattening. No surprise there.

More importantly, if the pandemic is over, as Mr Gilder seems to believe, then why would he say this?

This flu like all previous viral flues will give way only to herd immunity, whether through natural propagation of an extremely infectious pathogen, or through the success of one of the hundreds of vaccine projects.

If the pandemic is over, doesn't that mean that herd immunity has already been attained?

What am I missing here, David?

[Mark Rippetoe]

Maybe you're missing the big picture, SD:

http://www.theblogmire.com/the-unden...obs-and-lives/

And once again, the NYC Health Dept. data: COVID-19: Data - NYC Health

[David Kirkham]

SD,

I’ll discuss with you because you actually seem to want to discuss and exchange ideas on their merit. Thank you.

The article stated, “...Sweden, whose lenient policy did not implement any kind of lockdown.”

You replied, “This is blatantly false. Sweden has implemented significant physical distancing measures. It's just that most of them have been voluntary.”

I disagree with your assertion. I do not know anyone who characterizes “physical distancing” as a “lockdown.” Nor do I believe “voluntary” measures can be fairly described as state ordered “lockdowns.”

“This flu like all previous viral flues will give way only to herd immunity’, does not imply herd immunity has been achieved, rather the contrary. He is saying we are on the downward slope and that the cure is worse than the disease.

Further destruction of our economy will kill far more people than whatever embers are left smoldering in this “pandemic.”

[Frank_B]

Surely if the pandemic is over, we can go completely back to normal. After all, the pandemic is over, it's history, right?

I went to Lowe's (Memphis, TN) this Sunday and it was packed. The grocery store was the same. Women were in Target buying "essential oils" because I guess they're essential. The lockdown simply forced the little boutique stores to close and funneled everyone buying non-essential shit into high traffic stores. Brilliant idea! Couple that with no one wearing a mask and no one really seeming to give a shit. So, if it's as infectious as you people claim then we're doomed anyway.

At some point, you people have to realize there are diminishing returns on this lockdown. If we have 10 million extra people hooked on drugs and alcohol after this was it worth it? How about 500,000 missed diagnoses of other life-threatening diseases? Missed transplants? People who die from not getting their "elective" kidneys and other organs? When we're speaking Chinese? When the earth turns into a red giant and we're still locked down? At some point, the damage begins to outweigh the mitigation efforts. I have yet to hear anyone say what that point is... All I keep hearing is the same bullshit I heard about Iraq: "We gotta stay the course. Setting a timetable is a bad idea."

[Jovan Dragisic]

You guys are talking about people on drugs as if it were a bad thing. Get 10 million Americans on dope, the world will be a much safer place.