COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 2385

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #23841
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    You then have to ask which scenario is more likely:
    1. Did the Russians suddenly decide to commit a false-flag attack, choosing to throw away the guaranteed income and large amount of leverage the pipelines provided in exchange for the very small chance that they might be able to turn trusted allies against each other and completely destabilize opposing nations?
    or
    2. Did the US do what it has been known to do for decades?

    There is also a very real possibility a third party, like China or Turkey, that benefits from the conflict between its two main rivals would conduct such an attack.

    We should be able to tell by the US response to the incident in the next few weeks; if they conduct a propaganda campaign to blame Russia, the US either carried out the attack or was complicit in the attack.
    If not, the possibility that it was conducted by a third party may be highest.
    I lean heavily towards 2. The US seems hell bent on getting into a hot war for some reason. I maintain that 1 is plausible. Especially after the last 3 years which has shown me that governments around the globe will destroy their own economies to achieve goals that I may not understand.

  2. #23842
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Was either China or Turkey operating in the area within the week preceding the attack? We were.
    MoA - Whodunnit? - Facts Related to The Sabotage Attack On The Nord Stream Pipelines

    While the Baltops 22 maneuver already took place in June and July of this year the U.S. Sixth Fleet left the Baltic Sea only a few days ago (in German, my translation):

    Big Fleet Group From U.S. Navy Passes [German island passage] Fehmanbelt
    On Wednesday morning the amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge, escorted by the Landing Ships USS Arlington and USS Gunston Hall, was en route towards west. Previously, the ships were part of US units that took part in NATO maneuvers and called at numerous ports in Germany, Scandinavia and the Baltic States.

    The "USS Kearsarge", flagship of the association and largest warship of the US Navy, which was in action in the Baltic Sea in the last 30 years, has 40 helicopters and fighter planes as well as more than 2000 soldiers on board, the escort ships about 1000. For the around 4,000 soldiers are heading back home on the east coast of the US after their six-month deployment.

    Parts of the Kearsange operations in the Baltic Sea were dedicated to test special sub sea mine destruction technologies:

    A significant focus of BALTOPS every year is the demonstration of NATO mine hunting capabilities, and this year the U.S. Navy continues to use the exercise as an opportunity to test emerging technology, U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa Public Affairs said June 14.
    In support of BALTOPS, U.S. Navy 6th Fleet partnered with U.S. Navy research and warfare centers to bring the latest advancements in unmanned underwater vehicle mine hunting technology to the Baltic Sea to demonstrate the vehicle’s effectiveness in operational scenarios.

    Experimentation was conducted off the coast of Bornholm, Denmark, with participants from Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific, Naval Undersea Warfare Center Newport, and Mine Warfare Readiness and Effectiveness Measuring all under the direction of U.S. 6th Fleet Task Force 68.

    Off the coast of Bornholm, Denmark, is where the pipelines were hit. Just days ago the USS Kearsarge was in that area:

    AZ @AZmilitary1 - 13:52 UTC · Sep 27, 2022
    An expeditionary detachment of US Navy ships led by the universal amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge days ago was in the Baltic Sea
    It was 30 km from the site of the alleged sabotage on the Nord Stream-1 gas pipeline and 50 km from the threads of Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline

  3. #23843
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    Quote Originally Posted by anticausal View Post
    You're just being contrarian. Of course it could be a Russian move, and it could be a move by an alien race from another galaxy, but the odds that America is directly or indirectly responsible are much greater than any other theory. You make it almost sound 50/50, which it obviously isn't. If Putin had said the equivalent of what Biden said, no one would even be arguing about it.
    I am just putting options out there. I think American sabotage is much more likely, but I like to look at the conflict not in terms of Russia vs the West but factions within factions. It is very fluid now.

  4. #23844
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    Quote Originally Posted by Subby View Post
    Devils advocate:

    There's still he Nordstream 1 pipeline, and I believe Russia is selling energy to Europe via china at a mark up, so if there's no pipeline they just have to sell to China instead and Europe pays more.

    I don't believe it to be true because China benefiting at the same time doesn't help Russia. And secondly, under water pipelines being blown up undetected requires a reasonable amount of competence and capability in it and was most likely special forces. I'm not sure Russia has that capability or expertise but the US certainly does as the Seals aren't yet transgender.
    Not saying this one was Russia (why blow up something you can turn off) but the expertise argument is pretty flimsy. Why would you need special forces to do anything? The pipeline is attached to Russia, they already have the tools to send a mechanical device through the entire length of it. Saving that, any unmanned vessel could do it & again, once it's attached it can travel down the line. Who knows how long the payload has been in place, whoever did it would have been long gone when it detonated.

    The one part I don't, if this was the US, is why the half measure? If the goal was destroying the gas lines between Russia and Germany, why leave nord1 untouched? The element of surprise is now gone making a second move on the other line infinitely harder. Why only do half the job?

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  6. #23846
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jovan Dragisic View Post
    It would hurt a part of the business class. There is a general idea that there are two main camps in Russia - the military industrial security complex and the “liberals”, i.e. the energy and banking class which is highly dependent on doing business with Europe. The idea is that while the former are behind the war, the latter want to end it and go back to business as usual. A forceful disconnection of pipelines would turn the scales.

    Not buying it Jovan. The energy class and the powers in charge in the government should pretty much be one and the same.
    A very well-to-do client of mine said at the beginning of the year that these sanctions would help some intelligent and risk-averse Russian entrepreneurs (businessmen) make a lot of money, and witness:
    *Hoff (a St. Petersburg-area huge Russian furniture company) offering to buy up Ikea's abandoned assets and hire its highly-skilled factory employees
    *McDonald's main Russian franchisee reopening the restaurants under a new brand, with the same menu and even same packaging, but with the Golden Arches whited out
    *Ural, a semi-truck manufacturer, is trying to buy an Indian car company's SUV model, to start selling passenger vehicles to meet the demand ignored by Toyota, others, and now Mitsubishi abandoning the market.
    Представлен самый дешевый 3-рядный внедорожник Урал New 2022-2023 всего за 1,5 млн рублей и с 4WD

    All I know on the energy side is that that same client was impressed with Exxon giving his friend who was a high-up there a generous 24-month severance package when they abandoned the Russian market, whereas Russian companies typically only give a year or less.

    The liberal class wanting the Russians to give up and beg to go back to normal aren't best described as the banking- and energy-sector intelligentsia: they're CONSUMERS of Western indulgences who desperately want their branded goods and trips to Tuscany back. This liberal class is also conicidentally the always-aggrieved class, much like OUR Progressives, incredulously chasing (as Lira and especially Ritter have pointed out) a BLOGGER, akin to Matt Drudge, to save them from the "evil" Edinaya Rossiya (the United Russia party).

    Let's not misrepresent these two camps within Russia, pretending their is more pro-surrender sentiment in the country than there actually is: the Western MSM does a good enough job of that.

  7. #23847
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    Tom Lungo has got a decent take on this NS1/2 business. I never agree with more than 60 percent of what he werktest, plus he is suspiciously apologetic of China and Russia all the time, but it echoes what I said about factions:

    The Curious Whodunit of Nordstreams 1 and 2 - Gold Goats 'n Guns

  8. #23848
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    This is damned interesting.
    Read it all.
    Those reports make it extremely unlikely a third party was involved.

    Although I would think it possible China or Turkey had the capabilities to carry out the attack, it would not make any sense for them to take the tremendous risk.

    It was the US again.

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