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However, actual consumption hasn't increased; people just have well-stocked fridges and pantries, which they'll draw down as stores resupply. I don't see a major problem.
I see that you don't.
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Meanwhile, some hospitals in WA and NY are already running low on ventilators, because utilization of those has actually increased.
I think the demand for ventilators has increased, and the supply is actually just fine.
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This will obviously be a tough few weeks, economically. However, other countries that imposed similarly tough measures are already exiting the acute phase of COVID19 outbreak. Hubei province reported zero new cases today, and the total (worldwide) number of active COVID19 cases decreased.
You have absolutely no idea how many cases of COVID19 are new, old, or asymptomatic. Nobody does, and only fools think they do.