COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 27

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #261
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    • wichita falls texas june seminar date
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    Grocery shortages are due to increased demand, not decreased supply. However, actual consumption hasn't increased; people just have well-stocked fridges and pantries, which they'll draw down as stores resupply.
    Panic buying is increased demand, in this case so much so that most major US retailers including Walmart, Kroger and Publix had their largest single day stores sales EVER last week. The industry, for most items outside of certain salty snacks and soda, is pulled through warehouse distribution based on annual planned needs that are agreed to each year. People maybe hoarding but they are also consuming more groceries because they are eating more meals at home, with more people (kids, spouse,etc) that used to eat 1 or more meals outside the home on a daily basis. The planned production schedule never accounts for issues like this on a national scale. It can handle short term regional (typically hurricane scenarios) where warehoused goods can be diverted from one region to the next. As someone who works in the industry with both grocery retailers and CPG's we expect this increased consumption to be steady for the next 2-3 months based on the data projections we are seeing.

  2. #262
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    My wife's cousin in Bergamo has gone from the ventilator to intubation. This virus is serious, stay the Hell away from it.
    n=1, I know, but damn.

  3. #263
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    Did anyone post about Italy's excess mortality rate still being lower than normal?
    no. i haven't seen that yet.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    YouTube

    Make damn sure you watch this.
    yep, this has the potentional to be the biggest #fakenews event in modern history

    note: there is also a crowd funding site associated with make a 90 minute documentary about this mess.

    maybe that legit or not. buyer (donor) beware

    CORONA.film | Indiegogo

  4. #264
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    Quote Originally Posted by tallison View Post
    Yeah, y'all don't know much of anything useful about this outbreak, do you? A little less pandering to the religious fundamentalists and not having an old-timey used-care-salesman as a president might do you some good. 'Course that leaves your get-your-paws-off-my-freedom coots who read a conspiracy in every human event and pride themselves on being ungovernable -- which, in times of crisis, is about as useful as spitting into the wind. Yessiree, this is going to be interesting.
    If history has shown us anything at all, it is that the German people are quite governable.

    Quote Originally Posted by porcopedico View Post
    the virus doesn't care how much you squat
    This is probably not true, and the data will show this eventually.

  5. #265
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    Yeah, y'all don't know much of anything useful about this outbreak, do you?
    My understanding is there is extreme selectivity concerning who is actually tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, which leads to:

    absolutely no idea how many cases of COVID19 are new, old, or asymptomatic
    Unless of course you have additional information that weíall are missing...

  6. #266
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    Quote Originally Posted by porcopedico View Post
    France and Spain are merely week behind. Other countries a few days more.


    Italy has more contacts with china, in many cities they run the majority of bars and many restaurants.


    Italians have a lot more social interactions, especially between older people (big family gathering everey Sunday etc) than northern Europe.
    that's possibly one reason why spain end france are next. And, of course, the unknown unknowns


    Saying nothing about the governement, but Italy's health care in the north (up to now most affected) is excellent. and it's free to everyone

    Apart from the elderly there is a prevalence of male overweight patients. the virus doesn't care how much you squat
    Nothing is free. Further, excellence and free RARELY, if ever, coexist.

  7. #267
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    I agree there is extreme uncertainty about the true number of cases, and the proportion of asymptomatic cases. More data on this will help guide our long-term response. However, we donít know those numbers even for long-standing diseases, and they arenít particularly important in the near term. Fixating on this uncertainty is pointless and disingenuous.

    The most important numbers, right now, are the number of active (hospitalized) cases, and the proportion of those who require intensive care. That data is fine, and it indicates: until there is an approved, effective treatment (which will take weeks or maybe even days), we should really avoid overloading the hospital system. Otherwise, the CFRs will increase and industry will stop showing up to work.

  8. #268
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    Ah, oops. It looks like the true cfr is likely *much* higher than I used to calculate this number (I based it on the early stats coming out of Germany where there was reason to believe testing had been very good. The problem is, they started testing long before they had *any* fatalities and an article in the Lancet pointed out that if testing like this is reliable you have to look at todayĎs number of deaths divided by the infection rate 10 days ago - approx - that article suggests 5% as the most accurate estimate of cfr based on current data - and itís not even worth typing what that would mean if this thing is just left to run itís course and infects 70% of Americans - *it wonít do that because we wonít just sit still*, but this might certainly help some of you understand why the drastic actions being taken may, in fact, be far, far better than the alternative even if they create economic turmoil that then itself has to be managed...)

  9. #269
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    Quote Originally Posted by tallison View Post
    Ah, oops. It looks like the true cfr is likely *much* higher than I used to calculate this number (I based it on the early stats coming out of Germany where there was reason to believe testing had been very good. The problem is, they started testing long before they had *any* fatalities and an article in the Lancet pointed out that if testing like this is reliable you have to look at today‘s number of deaths divided by the infection rate 10 days ago - approx - that article suggests 5% as the most accurate estimate of cfr based on current data - and it’s not even worth typing what that would mean if this thing is just left to run it’s course and infects 70% of Americans - *it won’t do that because we won’t just sit still*, but this might certainly help some of you understand why the drastic actions being taken may, in fact, be far, far better than the alternative even if they create economic turmoil that then itself has to be managed...)
    From the only good data set we've got: Diamond Princess Mysteries | Watts Up With That?

    As you might imagine, before they knew it was a problem, the epidemic raged on the ship, with infected crew members cooking and cleaning for the guests, people all eating together, close living quarters, lots of social interaction, and a generally older population. Seems like a perfect situation for an overwhelming majority of the passengers to become infected.

    And despite that, some 83% (82.7% – 83.9%) of the passengers never got the disease at all … why?

  10. #270
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    Perhaps the point is the absolute morbidity would be the same with or without the continuously increasing potentially irreversible draconian policies, since the data is incomplete at best and at worst misleading?

    Of course we will never know now...

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