COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 29

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #281
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  2. #282
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ramus View Post
    Coronavirus: Iss, in Italia i decessi accertati finora per causa del Covid-19 sono solo due | Agenzia Nova Some information from Italy's Higher Institute of Health. It's written in Italian but Google Translate did a pretty good job on it.
    Here is the translated abstract:
    There were only two people who died from coronavirus in Italy, who had no other pathologies. This is what emerges from the medical records examined so far by the Higher Institute of Health, according to what was reported by the President of the Institute, Silvio Brusaferro, during the press conference held today at the Civil Protection in Rome. "Positive deceased patients have an average of over 80 years - 80.3 to be exact - and are essentially predominantly male," said Brusaferro. "Women are 25.8 percent. The average age of the deceased is significantly higher than the other positive ones. The age groups over 70, with a peak between 80 and 89 years. The majority of these people are carriers of chronic diseases. Only two people were not presently carriers of diseases ", but even in these two cases, the examination of the files is not concluded and therefore, causes of death different from Covid-19 could emerge. The president of the ISS has specified that "little more than a hundred medical records" have so far come from hospitals throughout Italy.

    These are the first minimum detailed data provided so far by the Civil Protection on the causes of death of coronavirus patients. At present, in fact, the authorities are unable to distinguish those who died from the virus, from those who, on the other hand, are communicated daily to the public, but who were mostly carriers of other serious diseases and who therefore would not have died from Covid-19. In response to a question from "Agenzia Nova", in fact, Brusaferro was unable to indicate the exact number of coronavirus deaths. However, the professor clarified that, according to the data analyzed, the great majority of the victims "had serious pathologies and in some cases the onset of an infection of the respiratory tract can lead more easily to death. To clarify this point , and provide real data, "as we acquire the folders we will go further. However, the populations most at risk are fragile, carriers of multiple diseases ".

  3. #283
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    Fascinating. I'm less worried about Texas now.

  4. #284
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fulcrum View Post
    no. i haven't seen that yet.
    Here ya go. Read the precautions about interpretations of the data. We will watch it for another week or two.
    https://www.euromomo.eu/

    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    Are you suggesting that isolation measures / social distancing won't help flatten the curve, because this is not an influenza virus? If so, walk me through your reasoning.
    I tried to give you a detailed rationale, but this forum has been acting buggy the past week or so and I for some reason have been unable to post it after several attempts on different days.

  5. #285
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    Quote Originally Posted by muntz View Post
    I love ya Rip. Starting Strength changed my life. But you are completely fucking wrong about all of this. It's bad and gonna get a lot worse. Period. I'm not gonna be the guy in 2 months to say I told you so, but our hospitals will be overrun. We don't have the equipment. Many people will die. Many will die because we dont have masks or respirators.
    Maybe, but until 61,000 die, it's nothing more then a bad flu season.

  6. #286
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  7. #287
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    Coronavirus: Is Covid-19 really the cause of all the fatalities in Italy? | Stuff.co.nz

    But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy's death rate may appear higher because of how doctors record fatalities.

    "The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

    "On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three," he says.


    8% case fatality rate in Italy, but with only 12% of those having direct causality points towards case fatality rate close to 1% like a few other estimates. Estimates are all over the place.

  8. #288
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    Quote Originally Posted by wiigelec View Post
    Perhaps the point is the absolute morbidity would be the same with or without the continuously increasing potentially irreversible draconian policies, since the data is incomplete at best and at worst misleading?

    Of course we will never know now...
    This is what I've been wondering about as I've caught up on and followed this thread over the last couple of days. These measures have now been taken, so obviously we'll never know how things might have turned out if they hadn't been.

    Some people seem absolutely certain that it's a hysterical overreaction. The reasons I've noticed seem to be mistrust of the data, or recognition of how incomplete it is, belief that the economic dangers are worse than the public health dangers, belief that governments are too incompetent to deliver a pizza, let alone an appropriate and effective pandemic response, a belief in a government/MSM conspiracy to whip people into a panic in order to further their control of populations, or some combination of the above.

    I live in Toronto, Canadia, where we generally have a bit more trust in government than Americans (or even many Canadians), so I personally put more stock in some of those reasons than others. However, my personal feelings are irrelevant to my curiousity, and I'm not going to begrudge anyone their opinions on such a complicated situation.

    I'm wondering if, now that these measures have been enacted, there is any outcome that could convince those who currently believe we're overreacting that the measures were necessary after all. If things don't get as bad as some are predicting, overreaction proved! If we take these measures, and things still go to shit, it was all for nothing! Obviously we'll never have the alternative, where we do little more than wash our hands more often, to compare to.

    I'm not trying to troll anyone, just honestly curious if anyone has given it any thought.

  9. #289
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    I appreciate Rip et al's skepticism, but an open question in my mind is: Why were Italy and China's hospitals overwhelmed?. Whether it was CoV-19, or it was something else, the fact is that for a few weeks to a month now, those two places don't have a healthcare system (due to increased utilization -- whatever the cause may be). That is not an insignificant risk.

  10. #290
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    starting strength coach development program
    Excerpt from Nassim and colleageus (2 days ago):

    Since lockdowns result in exponentially decreasing numbers of cases, a comparatively short amount of time can be sufficient to achieve pathogen extinction, after which relaxing restrictions can be done without resurgence. Since the exponential decay is highly sensitive to the interventions made by both government and social action, simulating their effects is less helpful than the advice to ``go all out'' and refine the effort over time with improved tracing, testing, and other protocols.

    Finally, the use of geographic boundaries and travel restrictions allows for effective and comparatively low cost imposition and relaxation of interventions. Such a multiscale approach accelerates response efforts, reduces social impacts, allows for relaxing restrictions in areas earlier that are less affected, enables unifected areas to assist in response in the ares that are infected, and is a much more practical and effective way to stop otherwise devastating outbreaks [6]. If actions had been taken earlier, successful local lockdowns, as performed in China in Hubei province, would have been possible instead of national lockdowns.
    Full read here



    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    ... but this forum has been acting buggy the past week or so and I for some reason have been unable to post it after several attempts on different days.
    Maybe post was too long? I found that if mine were too long, then they wouldn't go through - when I'd try to preview the post, it would take me to a wrong page or something.

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