Quote:
Originally Posted by
abduality
I appreciate Rip et al's skepticism, but an open question in my mind is: Why were Italy and China's hospitals overwhelmed?. Whether it was CoV-19, or it was something else, the fact is that for a few weeks to a month now, those two places don't have a healthcare system (due to increased utilization -- whatever the cause may be). That is not an insignificant risk.
do this.
Google "italy not enough hospitals"....or put "flu" in there another time
But then go into your <settings> an adjust for hits from Oct 2019 back to Jan. 2000.
This will give you a snap shot of the narrative BERFORE the current calamity.
Italy is/was a mess apparently.
https://www.thelocal.it/20190322/wha...d-about-health
Quote:
The Italian healthcare landscape includes crumbling hospitals, doctors trained on books rather than patients, and per capita spending one-third that of the United States. And Americans like to say their medical care is the best in the world, while Italians consider their National Health Service to be hopelessly dysfunctional.
Longevity is one (of several) metric(s) governments and the W.H.O. use to determine how healthy a population is.
Being old, and being just kept alive (from dying) doesn't necessarily mean you are healthy.
If fact its the opposite of healthy in most case.
An eighty year old with 2 or 3 commodities is just ripe for the picking.
The flu has been kicking the shit of them every year lately.
All the old people (kept alive) are now dying, from a new strain of flu, instead of the old strains of flu.
Only half the country vaccinated from the old strains of flu .... and the effectiveness of vaccine are hardly 100%.
So you can't die from H1N1, or H3N4, or R2D2 if you are already dead from CoViD19.
The good news is, their death rates from the other old strains flu will no doubt go down by the end of this year when this is sorted out.
Also, you can have 2+ strains of flu at the same time. Now they are just concerned/testing with covid19 (mostly).
They also have a aging population of doctors. So the next headline will be along the line of: "Look NOW! the doctors are even dying".
Not surprising. Make a 70 y.o. doctor work double shifts. Stress him/her out. No sleep.
See what that does to their immune system. They are already 70 years old. And they probably smoke(d).
And now they're in over crowded hospitals with a bunch of flu infected people.
Less doctors now (not that is even going to matter that much, but it sure doesn't help any)
Quote:
'Keep doctors working until they're 70,' struggling Italian hospitals tell government
....Short-staffed hospitals across Italy are pushing for the retirement age of the country’s physicians to be extended to the age of 70 in their regions.
The proposal is part of a 16-point document to be presented to Italy’s Ministry of Health in the coming days which aims for there to be a "regulatory amendment on age limits for the retirement of medical personnel".
Currently doctors in Italy can retire once they’ve turned 65 or having worked for 40 years.
Struggling regional governments are calling for those "who reach 40 years of service at 66-67 years and would like to continue working” to do so.
Italy’s ageing medical workforce is somewhat of a sleeping giant.
By 2025, 38,000 doctors will have retired (45,000 if you include general practitioners),causing a shortage that will be further aggravated by the fact that Italian universities are not able to train enough graduates to supply hospitals with specialists
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Wuhan China. 11M population. A Super City.
I would not be surprised if China builds super cities without enough hospitals, hospital beds, and now we are finding out .... its the number of forced air ventilators.
China(CCP/mainland) has a real problem with a "mob/herd mentality" in their society.....you need to research that.
Gets out that there's a new dangerous flu bug? And you're gonna die! You get sick (with the flu, what ever strain it is, like they do every year).
Everyone rush to the hospital and overwhelms things, sure, it happens.
They probably spread more flu by rushing to the hospital and being herded into school gyms and impromptu hospitals.
Anyone that had regular old H1N1, or type A, or whatever, now probably got COVID19 also....that no one is vaccined for. Great.
And now were are to believe, that a giant super city of 11M people, had NO NEW CASES over that couple of days.
Lockdowns, curfews, quarantines or not. Say if all that only 95% effective (95% of the population). That's 5% still circulating. That's still 1/2 million people.
So two days with NO new cases in Wuhan. Such bullshit.
Just looking at what they are saying here invalidate the data (number of cases is uncountable and irrelavent).
That statistic right there kinda invalidates a lot of things.
So which is it?
- Is the disease not as dangerous or communicable as you all said?
- Or are "case" number data skewed by the testing (testing frequency, who's tested, etc etc)
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Now the problem is going to be, that this exposes a lot of problems with health care for this countries.
Some of this is going to be embarrassing.
Italy let this happen.
They did studies when they had flu outbreaks in 2013 and 2016 (years might be off).
20,000 and 28,000 died then in those years.
Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) - ScienceDirect
Quote:
Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period. The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy. In conclusion, the unpredictability of the influenza virus continues to present a major challenge to health professionals and policy makers. Nonetheless, vaccination remains the most effective means for reducing the burden of influenza, and efforts to increase vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccine strategies (such as vaccinating healthy children) should be considered to reduce the influenza attributable excess mortality experienced in Italy and in Europe in the last seasons.
They decided to do nothing .... to up the vaccine program, and public awareness, etc.
Not add beds, add doctors, get more ventilators.
The overreaction by all parties (citizenry, health care industry, and governments) is going to make them stick with the narrative "what we did was right, because this was a terribly dangerous virus." That is, its going to be too painful to admit that this was essentially Y2.2K.
Embarrassing for China? well its same o' same o'.
2008 Chinese milk scandal - Wikipedia
I point this out, mostly because yes, feeding fire-retardant chemicals to infants is terrible, but I particularly remember the subsequent stockpiling, pilfering, "runs" on powdered milk and baby formula (sans fire retardant) in all the regions around mainland China because of the ensuing panic.