COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 30

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #291
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    • wichita falls texas june seminar date
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    I just wonder is the tail wagging the dog here in the US? Meaning, are the steps we are taking and the associated economic hit worth it versus having high risk populations like the elderly and immunocompromised be semi quarantined? A MUCH smaller populace.

    Then when you factor in the opportunistic asshole progressives who love to snatch liberty incrementally given the chance, this whole thing seems to be a situation we may could handle much more efficiently. Maybe I am missing something obvious here!?

  2. #292
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    Quote Originally Posted by abduality View Post
    I appreciate Rip et al's skepticism, but an open question in my mind is: Why were Italy and China's hospitals overwhelmed?.
    I dont think anyone is denying the existence of covid19, or that people have it and are seeking medical care. The sudden increase in demand is overwhelming hospitals, just like it would if everyone with flu sought medical care.

    The question is just how bad is it? At one extreme its just like flu, at another 80% will get it and 3-8% of those will die.

  3. #293
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    Gb. Your missing nothing. The overreaction here in AUS just as the US will have a lasting effect on jobs. It appears the acceptable number of deaths be reduced to zero. So instead of confining solutions to minimise risk to the elderly we are now close to shutting everything down.

    Pity our AUS government is willing to sacrifice mass jobs/gdp on account of a bad flu but refused to accept job losses/gdp on account of climate change action. On one hand the hazard affects old sick people knocking on death's door.....or the other it affects millions of youth with their lives ahead of them.

  4. #294
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    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    Excerpt from Nassim and colleageus (2 days ago):
    Maybe post was too long? ...
    Let's see. But, the site also has been often loading slowly or not at all for me this week.

    I am saying that flattening the curve is, at best, an ineffective strategy for a non-seasonal virus. The reason why it can possibly work for Influenza is that it flattens the curve until Spring comes and the seasonality of the virus kicks in.

    I believe you are oversimplifying your mutations analysis. Our isolation, quarantine and sanitizing strategies may artificially select for mutations and new virus strains that have a longer incubation period, are more contagious, mutate more quickly or are more resistant to destruction.

  5. #295
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    In addition, the social distancing and quarantine strategy will create a long period of isolated outbreaks across the globe, possibly for several years after the initial semi-containment. Waves of smaller outbreaks tend to produce more variation in a virus, because populations of virus are separated with minimal "viral outbreeding" (same concept as animals and plants that get stuck on an isolated island for generations and adapt. Yes, I just now made up the term "viral outbreeding", because I think it is an appropriate descriptor, even if it does not carry all of the traditional implications of its component words)

    Remember the Spanish Flu occurred in waves over the course of 2 years: It began as an innocuous first wave The virus then was transported by troops and broke out in different populations in different parts of the world that were semi-isolated due to WWI. One of these outbreaks produced the deadly second wave strain. The second wave strain had mutated enough that people infected by the first wave had no or little protective immunity against it. The large population of strong, young men in their prime (soldiers) that the second wave spread through in semi-isolation also may have selected for a stronger, more lethal strain that preferentially affected people in their prime.
    Organisms (including viruses) adapt to stresses and their environment. SRA on the generational level (evolution)

  6. #296
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    Another lesson can be taken from the 1960's influenza pandemic; a vaccine was developed and brought to market quickly, but it ended up killing more people than the actual pandemic. They suspect it was due to antibody-dependent enhancement caused by the vaccine. In the eyes of most realists, a safe, effective vaccine will not be available for a minimum of 2 years. Hoping for other treatments is a gamble with historically poor odds; Maybe they are found quickly, maybe after a moderate time and maybe not for a very very long time.

    I think there will be a fairly effective treatment by late fall based on the high throughput proteomics approach that is piggybacking off of several years of Sars-Cov-1 antibody research.

  7. #297
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gbraddock View Post
    IMaybe I am missing something obvious here!?
    Selective quarantines are impossible to enforce. A very simple example. My mom and her friend who lives across the hall from her returned to Croatia from Turkey on Monday, they travelled before the shit hit the fan globally. I put my mom in quarantine, limited all contacts, but her friend's daughter and her husband have been hanging out at her place because they are having their kitchen remodelled, so they need to cook their vegan food somewhere. Now the friend is running a fever, no other symptoms as yet thankfully. Multiply the infection vectors from something like that to all the other people who may have into contact with some of the parties affected and you can start getting a clearer picture for just this case, then let your imagination run wild on similar ones happening all over the world now.

    China has been able to temporarily stop the spreading because of enforcing brutal quarantine measures. European countries are not nearly as effective. A possible result of this is Italy now having more CFRs than China. You can expect similar stories all over Europe if the epidemic does not get halted by an act of God or whatever. People will just not let themselves be inconvenienced until someone close to them comes down with some symptoms, they will find reasons to argue, worry about the economy, their business, income, free time activities, you name it. Valid reasons, until you get a death in the family. Me, I'm just waiting to see this out and doing everything I can to prevent infecting loved ones. Gonna worry about the end of capitalism when I see who's left to worry about it with.

  8. #298
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gbraddock View Post
    I just wonder is the tail wagging the dog here in the US? Meaning, are the steps we are taking and the associated economic hit worth it versus having high risk populations like the elderly and immunocompromised be semi quarantined? A MUCH smaller populace.

    Then when you factor in the opportunistic asshole progressives who love to snatch liberty incrementally given the chance, this whole thing seems to be a situation we may could handle much more efficiently. Maybe I am missing something obvious here!?
    I agree with this, but a lot of fuckheads argue that people are too stupid to not go and infect their quarantined granma and her fuckbuddy, great uncle Jebediah; therefore, we all must suffer the economic breakdown that is going to get worse before it gets better.

    These same fuckheads are sitting at their computer, working from home, getting paid full salary while preaching from their soapbox.

    Personally, As a trainer at globogym, I need to work and right now building a home gym is my best option. Either that or slink into depression as my bank account drains. Fortunately, I’m in a position to make shit happen.

  9. #299
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    Quote Originally Posted by abduality View Post
    I appreciate Rip et al's skepticism, but an open question in my mind is: Why were Italy and China's hospitals overwhelmed?. Whether it was CoV-19, or it was something else, the fact is that for a few weeks to a month now, those two places don't have a healthcare system (due to increased utilization -- whatever the cause may be). That is not an insignificant risk.
    do this.
    Google "italy not enough hospitals"....or put "flu" in there another time
    But then go into your <settings> an adjust for hits from Oct 2019 back to Jan. 2000.
    This will give you a snap shot of the narrative BERFORE the current calamity.


    Italy is/was a mess apparently.
    https://www.thelocal.it/20190322/wha...d-about-health
    The Italian healthcare landscape includes crumbling hospitals, doctors trained on books rather than patients, and per capita spending one-third that of the United States. And Americans like to say their medical care is the best in the world, while Italians consider their National Health Service to be hopelessly dysfunctional.
    Longevity is one (of several) metric(s) governments and the W.H.O. use to determine how healthy a population is.
    Being old, and being just kept alive (from dying) doesn't necessarily mean you are healthy.
    If fact its the opposite of healthy in most case.
    An eighty year old with 2 or 3 commodities is just ripe for the picking.

    The flu has been kicking the shit of them every year lately.
    All the old people (kept alive) are now dying, from a new strain of flu, instead of the old strains of flu.
    Only half the country vaccinated from the old strains of flu .... and the effectiveness of vaccine are hardly 100%.
    So you can't die from H1N1, or H3N4, or R2D2 if you are already dead from CoViD19.
    The good news is, their death rates from the other old strains flu will no doubt go down by the end of this year when this is sorted out.
    Also, you can have 2+ strains of flu at the same time. Now they are just concerned/testing with covid19 (mostly).

    They also have a aging population of doctors. So the next headline will be along the line of: "Look NOW! the doctors are even dying".
    Not surprising. Make a 70 y.o. doctor work double shifts. Stress him/her out. No sleep.
    See what that does to their immune system. They are already 70 years old. And they probably smoke(d).
    And now they're in over crowded hospitals with a bunch of flu infected people.
    Less doctors now (not that is even going to matter that much, but it sure doesn't help any)

    'Keep doctors working until they're 70,' struggling Italian hospitals tell government
    ....Short-staffed hospitals across Italy are pushing for the retirement age of the country’s physicians to be extended to the age of 70 in their regions.
    The proposal is part of a 16-point document to be presented to Italy’s Ministry of Health in the coming days which aims for there to be a "regulatory amendment on age limits for the retirement of medical personnel".
    Currently doctors in Italy can retire once they’ve turned 65 or having worked for 40 years.
    Struggling regional governments are calling for those "who reach 40 years of service at 66-67 years and would like to continue working” to do so.
    Italy’s ageing medical workforce is somewhat of a sleeping giant.
    By 2025, 38,000 doctors will have retired (45,000 if you include general practitioners),causing a shortage that will be further aggravated by the fact that Italian universities are not able to train enough graduates to supply hospitals with specialists
    -----------------------

    Wuhan China. 11M population. A Super City.
    I would not be surprised if China builds super cities without enough hospitals, hospital beds, and now we are finding out .... its the number of forced air ventilators.
    China(CCP/mainland) has a real problem with a "mob/herd mentality" in their society.....you need to research that.
    Gets out that there's a new dangerous flu bug? And you're gonna die! You get sick (with the flu, what ever strain it is, like they do every year).
    Everyone rush to the hospital and overwhelms things, sure, it happens.
    They probably spread more flu by rushing to the hospital and being herded into school gyms and impromptu hospitals.
    Anyone that had regular old H1N1, or type A, or whatever, now probably got COVID19 also....that no one is vaccined for. Great.

    And now were are to believe, that a giant super city of 11M people, had NO NEW CASES over that couple of days.
    Lockdowns, curfews, quarantines or not. Say if all that only 95% effective (95% of the population). That's 5% still circulating. That's still 1/2 million people.
    So two days with NO new cases in Wuhan. Such bullshit.
    Just looking at what they are saying here invalidate the data (number of cases is uncountable and irrelavent).
    That statistic right there kinda invalidates a lot of things.
    So which is it?
    - Is the disease not as dangerous or communicable as you all said?
    - Or are "case" number data skewed by the testing (testing frequency, who's tested, etc etc)

    -------------------------

    Now the problem is going to be, that this exposes a lot of problems with health care for this countries.
    Some of this is going to be embarrassing.

    Italy let this happen.
    They did studies when they had flu outbreaks in 2013 and 2016 (years might be off).
    20,000 and 28,000 died then in those years.
    Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) - ScienceDirect

    Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period. The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy. In conclusion, the unpredictability of the influenza virus continues to present a major challenge to health professionals and policy makers. Nonetheless, vaccination remains the most effective means for reducing the burden of influenza, and efforts to increase vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccine strategies (such as vaccinating healthy children) should be considered to reduce the influenza attributable excess mortality experienced in Italy and in Europe in the last seasons.
    They decided to do nothing .... to up the vaccine program, and public awareness, etc.
    Not add beds, add doctors, get more ventilators.

    The overreaction by all parties (citizenry, health care industry, and governments) is going to make them stick with the narrative "what we did was right, because this was a terribly dangerous virus." That is, its going to be too painful to admit that this was essentially Y2.2K.

    Embarrassing for China? well its same o' same o'.

    2008 Chinese milk scandal - Wikipedia

    I point this out, mostly because yes, feeding fire-retardant chemicals to infants is terrible, but I particularly remember the subsequent stockpiling, pilfering, "runs" on powdered milk and baby formula (sans fire retardant) in all the regions around mainland China because of the ensuing panic.

  10. #300
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    starting strength coach development program
    This post not for the NPR, BBC, CNN, Fox intellectuals here...

    Quote Originally Posted by Gbraddock View Post
    I just wonder is the tail wagging the dog here in the US? Meaning, are the steps we are taking and the associated economic hit worth it versus having high risk populations like the elderly and immunocompromised be semi quarantined? A MUCH smaller populace.

    Then when you factor in the opportunistic asshole progressives who love to snatch liberty incrementally given the chance, this whole thing seems to be a situation we may could handle much more efficiently. Maybe I am missing something obvious here!?
    Game theory: What would have happened had the President taken a more measured approach? 25th Amendment impeachment? No doubt in my mind.

    Did the President resist at first in order to make a Judo throw? He now has war-time powers. Everyone involved has been surveilled; FISA goes both ways. If there was phuckery to regain power, it has been recorded and heads will roll. If not, we are safe from catching a nasty virus and President Trump listened to the "experts".

    Seems like a good time to stay home, wash your hands, and enjoy this movie.


    Tallison: Look in the mirror. You Germans are the most insane conspiracy nuts i have EVER seen: #shaef. I rest my case.

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