COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 33

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  1. #321
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    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    What do you think happens if we don't impose these measures?

    Have you considered the economic risks of a full on outbreak?
    Yes. Some people will die. They're going to anyway. They always do. They die from the flu, from road accidents, from cancer. I'm familiar with it.

    An economy going buck wild out of fear is far harder to manage than it is in a contained situation.
    That's what is happening right now.

  2. #322
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    Alright, last post from me, at least for a few weeks, when we will know how bad this outbreak really is.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    ▪ The relevant question is whether the people who died would have died anyway without having contracted the Coronavirus
    ▪ Given that (at least currently) testing is based primarily on the display of *symptoms*, that seems extremely unlikely[/I]
    Seems again?
    Bloody hell. OK, how about this: "Given that they had COVID-19 symptoms and then died, they definitely wouldn't have died if they didn't have COVID-19." Happy now? It's no longer as correct, but so much more black-and-white. And black-and-white thinking is of course precisely what situations like this desperately need.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    [I]◦ "Nicholas Nassim Taleb says ... [those modellers] are Imbeciles, ... [but] he is arguing for *a more agressive suppression and social distancing policy, right now* than what they considered
    He's right about modelers.
    I see. Just to recap: he is right when he agrees with you, and wrong otherwise. Got it.

    In particular, he's right that the modellers are imbeciles, even though his own thinking is much closer to theirs than it is to yours. I'm confused. Does that mean he must be an imbecile also? Or you? Or everybody?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Models of an unchecked outbreak show that, at peak, the number of infected people requiring intensive care would exceed the number of available critical care beds by factors of ~30.
    ▪ *Even without taking this into account*, the total number of deaths in the US is then projected to be ~2 million
    ▪ In reality, it would presumably be considerably worse, because once health care systems are overwhelmed, people who could have been saved will actually die.
    ▪ In the Imperial College modelling (sic) study, they assume (based on the available clinical evidence), that ~50% of critical care cases will die even when treatment is available.
    ▪ Once the supply of critical care beds is exhausted, that number would presumably become ~100%
    ▪ In addition, once the health care system is on its knees, some/many milder cases would probably become critical. Also people with other (unrelated) illnesses would likely die at increased rates

    This is laziness and speculation, and is precisely why there is no toilet paper at Walmart.
    Again, I find this truly incredible. You say you believe in science. But I guess you consider all epidemiology as pseudo-science? Because it's all about modelling and forecasting the course of current and future outbreaks on the basis of what we know about previous ones? If you really believe that, ... well ... I don't know what to say, really.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    ▪ Perhaps most importantly, the example of China shows that *suppression* of the outbreak *is* possible, i.e. it is *not* inevitable that everybody will get infected.
    • the challenge is managing this for long enough that a vaccine can get developed and deployed

    China welded people inside their apartments. You probably think this is a good idea.
    Absolutely. Like all libtards, socialists and communists (aka "Europeans"), I actually think we should *all* be welded into our apartments permanently. In fact, I have already provisionally welded myself into my own house. I did that right after the meeting of the Socialist Party in which we decided to create the coronavirus so we could finally get going with all the welding.

    If I was a capitalist, you wouldn't believe how much money I would have invested in companies that produce welding equipment. You should do it though, it's not too late!

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    You cannot be serious. You parade this baseless speculation about infection rates, and then request hard data from the 1920s?
    Unlike you, I was not requesting anything, but asking in good faith. In any case, please see my response to DrT

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    However, does anybody actually think that people would continue life as normal (go to work, eat in restaurants, drink in bars and pubs) once, say, 100,000 people have died and the health care system is broken?
    They certainly as hell can't live normally as things are now, since you people have decided these things for us.
    First, it's true that people can't live as normal in both scenarios -- the difference being that in one of them 100,000 people have died (and many more are about to).

    Second, "you people"? Seriously? Who do you think you are talking to? This isn't Boris Johnson, Angela Merkel, Bernie Sanders or President Macron, you know. I'm flattered though. Thanks.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    The resulting Great Depression in *that* case could easily be worse than the one this strategy is trying to prevent.
    This is sloppy thinking -- not really thinking at all, but merely feeling afraid. What we know now is that this thing has killed far fewer people than the flu ever does, and that fear of a worse outcome has irreparably damaged the economy of the country and the world. This is already a worse-case scenario, and you don't seem to grasp the significance of oil at $20 and the Dow at 10000, every waiter/waitress in the country unemployed, basic commodities unavailable or fought over, and the resulting effects on the welfare of those people you're trying to protect with your Social Distancing.
    Wow. You are accusing me of sloppy thinking in a paragraph that goes on to say "This is already a worst-case scenario". Are you honestly saying that you cannot imagine things getting worse?

    More precisely, do you really think there is no chance at all that this disease is precisely as infectious and deadly as experts say it is? And that anything other than drastic interventions would end up with a *far* worse scenario, where people don't die hypothetically from a Great Depression, but actually, from COVID-19 (followed by a Great Depression).

    Because it's one thing to say that you acknowledge that possibility, but completely disagree with the experts on its likelihood. But it's quite another to say that such a scenario is impossible.

  3. #323
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    So your point is that whatever is necessary to do to stop this epidemic -- up to and including the dismantling of modern society -- is just fine, because it is a cause of death. Is this a fair characterization? And I do understand the exponential growth thing; I also understand the Infection Fatality Ratio of 0.66%-thing too. And I understand that the airlines are talking about bankruptcy. You must be very wealthy, to so completely ignore the other part of this horrible equation.
    It is absolutely *not* just fine. And I am absolutely *not* very wealthy. I simply do not see a viable alternative to taking the most drastic measures possible right now in order to prevent a true worst-case outcome.

    I also seriously hope that I and everybody else are 100% completely wrong. But I see no evidence of that, and planning for what we *wish* would happen doesn't seem like a good idea.

    Finally, what I actually hope is that drastic interventions *can* achieve suppression, and that either we find medical treatments or a vaccine sooner than we think, or that Taleb is right and those interventions can be relaxed after the first wave without causing a second wave. Those things seem like actual possibilities worth aiming for. But right now both the US and the UK aren't really heading in that direction, because our interventions haven't so far succeeded in suppressing anything.

  4. #324
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    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    Except we don't have to appeal to experts in this case. The amount of data sharing on this topic is unprecedented.

    There is a treasure trove of open access information out there right now, including raw data which is updated daily, whose quality is improving as we learn more.

    There doesn't seem to be a big gap between what government and experts have access to in terms of data and research, and what we have if we choose to explore it.
    This is literally an appeal to experts. Every individual and organization involved is reporting numbers differently, according to their own bias and opinions and the organization they are involved in and the country they live in.

    As I look at this link, it says that China has 81,266 confirmed cases, Italy has 47,261confirmed cases, and Iran has 19,644 confirmed cases. Do you actually believe any of those numbers are accurate? That they mean the same thing? That China and Iran are anywhere close to honest in the numbers they are putting out? That all of the individuals reporting these numbers have agreed to the same standards of data collection and that history has shown them to be correct.

    This is sophistry.

  5. #325
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    Since a comparison between Italy and Japan has been made, let me piss off the Italians.
    The Japanese bath every day, the Italians don't. As a soldier stationed in Europe, this is one of those things we're warned about, and told not to take offense if the people you meet stink. Because bathing is a sometimes/maybe weekly thing. If the protections against the CV is connected to washing, how much effect has the hygiene standards of Italy played in their rates of infection?

  6. #326
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    Okay, Lazygun. I have your attention. We're all going to die if we continue to interact with each other. You keep talking about COVID19, and I'm talking about fear and the ensuing panic, and the subsequent economic collapse we are beginning to see today. Both are bad, but I'm saying that the latter is worse than the former.

  7. #327
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gerald Boggs View Post
    Since a comparison between Italy and Japan has been made, let me piss off the Italians.
    The Japanese bath every day, the Italians don't. As a soldier stationed in Europe, this is one of those things we're warned about, and told not to take offense if the people you meet stink. Because bathing is a sometimes/maybe weekly thing. If the protections against the CV is connected to washing, how much effect have the hygiene standards of Italy played in their rates of infection?
    This is part of the bigger issue.

    I lived and worked in China for a year. There's no soap in restrooms. Water you get from the tap has to be boiled before you can drink it. People let their kids piss and shit on the side walk. I walked up on multiple adults squatting in public with their pants down, defecating in public.

    That is why China has to weld people into their apartments. That is why China has to kick out American journalists and tell the world the next day that they have no new cases of Covid-19

  8. #328
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    Quote Originally Posted by ltomo View Post
    This is literally an appeal to experts. Every individual and organization involved is reporting numbers differently, according to their own bias and opinions and the organization they are involved in and the country they live in.

    As I look at this link, it says that China has 81,266 confirmed cases, Italy has 47,261confirmed cases, and Iran has 19,644 confirmed cases. Do you actually believe any of those numbers are accurate? That they mean the same thing? That China and Iran are anywhere close to honest in the numbers they are putting out? That all of the individuals reporting these numbers have agreed to the same standards of data collection and that history has shown them to be correct.

    This is sophistry.
    Study this figure carefully:

    Chart_7_adapted.jpg (Adapted from here, and discussed here).

    The information contained here and its implications do not hinge upon whether or not different countries report with different standards.

    Now look at some data I just plotted for Texas (using the latest data from here).

    Do you see the nature of the problem? The data I just showed is a week or two behind the actual curve.

    Imagine tracing your finger up a log scale at a steady velocity. That's how this thing grows unless checked. And the figures we're seeing now aren't current. It's *kind of* like looking at a distant star - the information received is lagged by the speed of light.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  9. #329
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    Make us a bigger version of the graph. Second graph says Florida.

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    starting strength coach development program
    If Corona doesn’t kill me....the bender I’m going on it afterwards will.

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