COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[Shiva Kaul]

Sully's opinion is notably absent from this discussion.

I don't want to wade into the (currently) pointless debate about the true CFR and long-term management of COVID19...but claims that COVID19 is not a main cause of death, should actually be directed at the flu, which kills mostly through secondary pneumonia. COVID19 is a LRT pneumonia which, even if managed well, may also cause severe cardiovascular damage, which is why cardiovascular disease (rather than respiratory issues) are the worst comorbidity.

[spacediver]

My bad. Second try, with links instead (I think attaching the images resizes them):

Imgur: The magic of the Internet

Imgur: The magic of the Internet

[Mark Rippetoe]

Where is the data in this graph about Hubei from?

When did Texas begin testing for COVID19?

[ltomo]

Study this figure carefully:

Attachment 7226 (Adapted from here, and discussed here).

The information contained here and its implications do not hinge upon whether or not different countries report with different standards.

Now look at some data I just plotted for Texas (using the latest data from here).

Do you see the nature of the problem? The data I just showed is a week or two behind the actual curve.

Imagine tracing your finger up a log scale at a steady velocity. That's how this thing grows unless checked. And the figures we're seeing now aren't current. It's *kind of* like looking at a distant star - the information received is lagged by the speed of light.

That first link comes from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, a The Chinese government is not my friend or your friend. They are our enemy, my enemy, economically and ideaologically. If you are assigning any kind of value to any numbers coming from China, you are ignorant.

I read Thomas Pueyo's article over a week ago . Some of his other contributions to the epidemiological community include "What The Rise of Skywalker Can Teach about Storytelling" and " How to Write a Funny Speech".

Did teachers in school tell you that you were smart? That you were a good boy? That you scored very well on tests?

They told me that too. They told me that because I got a 31 on my ACT I was very special .

I can see that there is no toilet paper in any store. The restaurants and coffee shops in my city are empty. My gym has said that they will not be collecting dues for the month of March. The mechanics and tire stores are opening late and closing early. The parents of the children I teach are taking off work and losing income so they can look after their kids. The people I work with are talking about making sure everyone of us has a gun and several boxes of ammunition.

You don't have to agree with any of these people, but I'm telling you, the people I talk to in-person, every day, are much more worried about the effect of this shut down than the Corona virus.

[Mark Le Comte]

The graphs show that spread can be slowed and get cases to decline with strong public health measures. What happens when those measures are relaxed or stopped? We dont know, though I suspect cases will rise again.

[Mark Rippetoe]

Well, I hear that the National Guard is going to be enforcing a curfew and quarantine in Baltimore, military trucks in store parking lots in Orange County CA. Lazygun wins. That didn't take very long.

[spacediver]

Where is the Chinese data in this graph from?

Originally reported here, and then taken up in this paper.

When did Texas begin testing for COVID19?

I have no idea - possibly the same day you see the curve start to rise? What I do know is that the curve is exponential with a substantial growth rate (my eye says ~3 day doubling rate), and I'm assuming that the confirmed cases plotted there are a fairly decent proxy for number of people who were sick enough to warrant a hospital visit. It's virtually impossible for our hospitals to adapt to that sort of influx over any meaningful period of time.

The asymptomatic transmission of this virus means that rate limiting factors like [I better not go near people while I'm sick, and I better stay away from that sick looking person] don't come into play as easily.

Days literally make a world of difference here. And it's a bit of a mindfuck, since the most critical time to act is before it seems urgent.

Sully's opinion is notably absent from this discussion.

He posted this two and a half weeks ago. I'd be curious to hear his current thinking, if he's up for sharing.

[spacediver]

That first link comes from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, a The Chinese government is not my friend or your friend. They are our enemy, my enemy, economically and ideaologically. If you are assigning any kind of value to any numbers coming from China, you are ignorant.

Do you believe that the data are manufactured in order to sow panic and economic ruin?

[Mark Rippetoe]

I have no idea - possibly the same day you see the curve start to rise? What I do know is that the curve is exponential with a substantial growth rate (my eye says ~3 day doubling rate), and I'm assuming that the confirmed cases plotted there are a fairly decent proxy for number of people who were sick enough to warrant a hospital visit.

It may also be a decent proxy for test availability. Did you not consider that, knowing the fuckery that has transpired with test kits?

[spacediver]

It may also be a decent proxy for test availability. Did you not consider that, knowing the fuckery that has transpired with test kits?

Are China, Iran, and Europe not enough to learn from?