COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[ltomo]

Seriously -- you think everybody else is being hysterical? You're being asked to sit on your couch while hopefully those irritating experts, doctors and nurses find a way out of this crisis. The humanity!

I am being asked to sit on my couch at the same time I am being told that unemployment claims have spiked, major industries just lost a week's worth of income and will likely lose 10-12 weeks more, and that the gyms, restaurants, and small businesses in my town are being told to close.

Severe damage has already been done by closing the country for just a week. History is my witness.

This whole situation is like a school shooting, but on a massive scale. Some idiot kid has just pulled a gun out of his backpack, and people are trying to decide if it's worth it to wait for the police to show up, or if we have to fix this situation ourselves.

[lazygun37]

Hysteria: exaggerated or uncontrollable emotion or excitement, especially among a group of people.
Who is hysterical here?

Sorry, I meant to add that perhaps you are right. I mean those quotes about buying guns and "give me liberty or give me death" seemed fairly excited and emotional to me. But perhaps paranoia is a better term?

[Mark Rippetoe]

Rip, for the fourth time: would you please respond to the sunstantive questions I've asked you?

Because it is pointless. You have patiently explained that we're all going to die, so there's no point in having an economy, and I now believe you. You win. Congratulations.

[Yngvi]

I’d recommend unbanning drinking straws, too.

You monster! Don't you know that global warming will kill us all over 10 years ago? We must quarantine all straws now!

Nobody in their right mind should take these extrapolations all that seriously

Well said.

[lazygun37]

Because it is pointless. You have patiently explained that we're all going to die, and I now believe you. You win. Congratulations.

Thank you. Almost as thoughtful a response as LOL.

I really expected more from you. I mean you post a data set and practically challenge me to analyse it, and then your comeback when I do is pretty lame sarcasm?

[Dr.T]

I am showing that the mortality rate of COVID-19 is lower than initial projections and dropping as more data rolls in.

I also maintain that a writer citing Italy while ignoring other countries is an indicator that the writer is heavily biased to Corona Fear Mongering. The Italian Ministry of Health has admitted they are over-counting COVID-19 deaths, BTW.

I am also pointing out that S Korea and other countries have not shut down public businesses and are still doing quite well with COVID19

I have opined, as have Mark and others, that the State shutting down a large portion of the US economy will likely have more grave and serious effects than COVID 19.

I also agree with Taleb that the government should not bail out corporations, as they did in 2008.


Are you disputing these or are you copy/ pasting out of a Stats 101 textbook? I assure that is persuasive to exactly nobody.

[lazygun37]

Well said.

Thank you! That's why I said it. Now let's see your quantitative analysis.

[ltomo]

Can I finally request that you respond substantively to what I've just said before you bombard me with another new set of data and accusations? It would be really nice to know that you are a big enough person to admit when you don't know something. It's always possible that I am wrong, too, of course -- I do this stuff for a living, but we all make mistakes. Perhaps I screwed up the calculation of the confidence interval, for example. But if that's the case, please explicitly point out what that mistake is, rather than just shouting at me.

This is not a numbers question for the vast majority of us unless you're going to start looking at the numbers for what the economy is about to do as well. Unfortunately, that is an impossible task. It will probably take several years to even make a guess at what all happened with this.

To me this is an issue of principle. In the face of an unknown threat, fall back on training and discipline. That means get back to work, carry on, and mantain as much semblance of normality as possible.

"Even if I knew that tomorrow the world would go to pieces, I would still plant my apple tree."

[Dr.T]

One more point: I am an MD. I haven't worked in hospitals for a few years, but I did for about 20 years, and heavily in ICUs and ERs for about 10. ICUs overflow ALL THE TIME. My local hospital is currently in ICU overflow with zero COVID 19 patients. Hospitals overflow every year. During flu season. During catastrophes. During heavy trauma seasons. It's very common. At other times the ICUs are almost empty. Like any other business.

And hospitals are businesses. They are not going to buy 50 extra vents and hire 200 extra ICU nurses and RTs for techs and build 50 ICU rooms to wait around for the nasty Chinese bat virus that seems to come around every few years.

And it will not happen after this nasty Chinese bat virus either.

Maybe instead we should demand the Chinese government shut down these wet markets and ask their people stop eating weird uncooked animals and birds.

[OldDog]

I read a Chinese study on transmissibility. It was very technical.

The point is, social distancing, hand washing, and cleaning surfaces, and quarantine does not mean the state shutting down business and shutting down the economy.

Here is the WHO report on transmissibilty from China:

Household transmission
In China, human-to-human transmission of the COVID-19 virus is largely occurring in
families. The Joint Mission received detailed information from the investigation of clusters
and some household transmission studies, which are ongoing in a number of Provinces.
Among 344 clusters involving 1308 cases (out of a total 1836 cases reported) in Guangdong
Province and Sichuan Province, most clusters (78%-85%) have occurred in families.
Household transmission studies are currently underway, but preliminary studies ongoing in
Guangdong estimate the secondary attack rate in households ranges from 3-10%.

Contact Tracing
China has a policy of meticulous case and contact identification for COVID-19. For example,
in Wuhan more than 1800 teams of epidemiologists, with a minimum of 5 people/team, are
tracing tens of thousands of contacts a day. Contact follow up is painstaking, with a high
percentage of identified close contacts completing medical observation. Between 1% and
5% of contacts were subsequently laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19, depending on
location. For example:
• As of 17 February, in Shenzhen City, among 2842 identified close contacts, 2842
(100%) were traced and 2240 (72%) have completed medical observation. Among
the close contacts, 88 (2.8%) were found to be infected with COVID-19.
9
• As of 17 February, in Sichuan Province, among 25493 identified close contacts,
25347 (99%) were traced and 23178 (91%) have completed medical observation.
Among the close contacts, 0.9% were found to be infected with COVID-19.

• As of 20 February, in Guangdong Province, among 9939 identified close contacts,
9939 (100%) were traced and 7765 (78%) have completed medical observation.
Among the close contacts, 479 (4.8%) were found to be infected with COVID-19.

They have intensive contact monitoring. Very low transmission.

Thank you Doc. I wasn't picking up the distinction between household vs contact/community.