# COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

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• 07-10-2020, 08:30 PM
TDinBristol
Quote:

Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul
(TL;DR - the rationale for retraction was indeed dubious.)

Here’s what happened. Lots of people want to assess the probability of getting shot by a cop based on your race. The problem is, this calculation involves both shootings and uneventful encounters, but only the former have solid data.

Johnson et al, using this better data, try to predict the race of the cop from all other aspects of the shooting. Basically, checking if unarmed black men are getting shot mostly by white cops. Turns out that’s not the case.

Is this “flawed?” No, it’s answering another question, trying to make good with the available data. Problem is, their abstract said “White officers are not more likely to shoot minority civilians than non-White officers”, which is imprecise wording. If it said, “White officers are not more likely to be the shooters of minority...” then they’d be fine.

Opponents pounced on this, and made it sound like the entire paper is engulfed in some grave mathematical error. A few months ago, the authors went ahead and corrected their abstract. From a few days ago, their mealy-mouthed statement of retraction cites misuse of their work, but finds blame only in the already-corrected material.

Meanwhile, Dr. Joseph Fair, self-styled @curefinder, virologist and epidemiologist, appeared on NBC multiple times to discuss his recovery from COVID-19. Except, by his own admission, all his PCR tests were negative, as was his antibody test.

Somehow, the statistics paper is retracted, while Fair’s blatant lies are not.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...917_story.html
• 07-10-2020, 09:52 PM
David A. Rowe
Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Jackson
My brain is addled from either asymptomatic COVID-19 brain damage or more likely inhaling meltblown plastic from my mask on my commute to work for the last week. Apologies to you Mr. David A. Rowe. Nobody deserves to be a Hollis.

No offense taken. We all make mistakes.
• 07-11-2020, 12:58 AM
alsbos
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sean Berry
I'd like to address the economic impact. Someone was blathering about how face masks will increase GDP or some other drivel....

Earlier I addressed the fact that I chose not to attend a coaching clinic in San Antonio over masking. (It has since been cancelled, costing SA economy about \$8 million). That was about \$2800 of money, not including gas/parking/alcohol that would have been spent in the San Antonio area, that would not. I know it is moot now.

Plan was to tow my boat down to a lake and the coast. Go out 1 day on a deep sea charter fishing trip and spend the rest of the time fishing around the bay and a freshwater lake. Right now I am not fishing because the charter requires a mask if within 6ft of others. So, \$450 not going to the charter, 3 nights at a hotel (\$200), gas, food, bait for 3 days of fishing and travel (300+ miles towing a boat) not being purchased by me. Every place I would have purchased gas, would have lost "road food" purchases because I am not going into the store.

There is cool little brew supply place in San Antonio on St. Mary's street. Normally I get my stuff from them for making beer. This summer I am attempting a foray into making wine from wild mustang grapes that grow on the fence lines out here. While I would LOVE to pick the knowledgeable brains of the brew shop, I just won't go into SA. So, I am winging it. We might die, but it won't be from COVID!

I think there will be further harm to Local economy and big corporations (amazon/walmart etc) will get benefit.

sb

Admittedly, I researched that quote a bit. I like this earlier version for our situation.

"evil appears as good in the minds of those whom god leads to destruction" ~ Sophocles

You're right. After your reading your exciting post about fishing and spending 200\$ towing a boat, I've decided that GoldmanSachs clearly doesn't know what they are talking about. They should replace their economists with fisherman.

Goldman Sachs has done the math and a national mask mandate to halt the spread of coronavirus would have a big impact on the U.S. economy - MarketWatch
• 07-11-2020, 04:26 AM
Jovan Dragisic
The worst thing is, the whole world will be under paranoia until the US elections. Fucking Democratic Party. You guys better elect Trump again!
• 07-11-2020, 09:25 AM
alsbos
Quote:

Originally Posted by alsbos
No offence, but you seem to be making up most of what you said. Professors are tenured, they can publish anything they want. And working on IQ tests and other historical data is dirt cheap and requires little or no money. Also, there are plenty of more right-leaning institutions and think tanks where such work can be done if desired. And lastly, anyone with a background in stats can take historical data and work with it, including emeritus professors who could care less what anyone thinks, even if they were at a liberal school. The reality is that correlational studies are viewed as low quality, because they don't prove causality, and they've been repeatedly shown to result in erroneous conclusions. And the days of assessing one's genome using a paper test is long gone since the advent of high throughput sequencing in 2004. This has nothing to do with race. It has to do with the value of correlational studies, and the value of IQ tests as measure of genetic differences in an era with rapid genome sequencing. So yes, the use of an IQ test is old fashioned for this purpose. An IQ test is useful, for instance, if a kid is having trouble in school, and you're trying to find out why.

I just wanted to post this gem of a correlational study. I'm not sure how stuff like this gets into PNAS (PNAS is a tough journal to get into, unless you're a member and grandfathered in). Anyways, my point is, if you believe the race IQ stuff, then you have to believe this study too...

Lower cognitive ability linked to non-compliance with social distancing guidelines during the coronavirus outbreak
• 07-11-2020, 10:33 AM
Mark Rippetoe
Quote:

Originally Posted by ltomo
Shiva is an unsung hero in this thread.

I'm glad he's still here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnst_nhb
Yay! Seattle city council has joined in approving a veto-proof vote to reduce SPD Funding by 50%.

One of the plans is to move 911 services to the civilian sector. Brilliant.

So where should I move?

These people have lost their minds: Cult Programming in Seattle | City Journal

Quote:

Originally Posted by alsbos
You're right. After your reading your exciting post about fishing and spending 200\$ towing a boat, I've decided that GoldmanSachs clearly doesn't know what they are talking about. They should replace their economists with fisherman.

Goldman Sachs has done the math and a national mask mandate to halt the spread of coronavirus would have a big impact on the U.S. economy - MarketWatch

Yet, somehow, a national mask mandate remains unconstitutional, unenforceable, and silly, despite the geniuses at Goldman Sachs' opinion.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jovan Dragisic
The worst thing is, the whole world will be under paranoia until the US elections. Fucking Democratic Party. You guys better elect Trump again!

This whole disease thing will be over on November 4, 2020.

Quote:

Originally Posted by alsbos
I just wanted to post this gem of a correlational study. I'm not sure how stuff like this gets into PNAS (PNAS is a tough journal to get into, unless you're a member and grandfathered in). Anyways, my point is, if you believe the race IQ stuff, then you have to believe this study too...

Lower cognitive ability linked to non-compliance with social distancing guidelines during the coronavirus outbreak

I think I understand: Cognitive ability is a useful metric when the government needs behavioral compliance.
• 07-11-2020, 11:49 AM
alsbos
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe
I'm glad he's still here.

Yet, somehow, a national mask mandate remains unconstitutional, unenforceable, and silly, despite the geniuses at Goldman Sachs' opinion.

When it comes to making money, GoldmanSachs has proven themselves to be genius. But more importantly, when have I blathered??

Quote:

Yet, somehow, a national mask mandates remains unconstitutional, unenforceable, and silly, despite the geniuses at Goldman Sachs' opinion.
Are mask mandates unconstitutional? University of Idaho law professor weighs in | KLEW

I had to google search this. Not sure on the federal level, but there seems to be a lot of case law supporting such a mandate (mandatory vaccinations have gone to the supreme court and were ruled constitutional). Reminds me a bit of seat belt laws. Don't get me wrong though, I personally don't think a national mandate would be useful.
• 07-11-2020, 01:24 PM
Yngvi
Quote:

Originally Posted by ltomo
Shiva is an unsung hero in this thread.

I like him.

He has shown the uncommon ability to critically analyze various topics and to adapt his thinking when appropriate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnst_nhb
Yay! Seattle city council has joined in approving a veto-proof vote to reduce SPD Funding by 50%...
So where should I move?

CHAZ 2: They it will really be a utopia this time

Quote:

Originally Posted by alsbos
I just wanted to post this gem of a correlational study. I'm not sure how stuff like this gets into PNAS (PNAS is a tough journal to get into, unless you're a member and grandfathered in). Anyways, my point is, if you believe the race IQ stuff, then you have to believe this study too...

Is this study about the BLM riots?
• 07-11-2020, 02:27 PM
Joe Cavazos
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe
This whole disease thing will be over on November 4, 2020.

Even if Trump wins? I don't know. Flu deaths will peak again in early 2021. Why wouldn't Democrats and the media keep up the masks + social distancing + cancellation of events through it all?
• 07-11-2020, 03:46 PM
Mark Rippetoe
Quote:

Originally Posted by alsbos
When it comes to making money, GoldmanSachs has proven themselves to be genius. But more importantly, when have I blathered??

I have not said you blathered. You are perhaps the most concise leftist on the board right now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by alsbos
Are mask mandates unconstitutional? University of Idaho law professor weighs in | KLEW

I had to google search this. Not sure on the federal level, but there seems to be a lot of case law supporting such a mandate (mandatory vaccinations have gone to the supreme court and were ruled constitutional). Reminds me a bit of seat belt laws. Don't get me wrong though, I personally don't think a national mandate would be useful.

Seat belt laws are not national. Governor's decrees/orders/pronouncements are not laws. Laws are voted on by our elected representatives in a legislature and either signed or vetoed by a governor.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe Cavazos
Even if Trump wins? I don't know. Flu deaths will peak again in early 2021. Why wouldn't Democrats and the media keep up the masks + social distancing + cancellation of events through it all?

Because we're tired of this shit?
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