COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 494

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  1. #4931

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Don't move to Austin. You're essentially moving to California.
    I'm in Austin and a couple of weeks ago I was evaluating renting out my place and moving somewhere else. San Antonio seemed nice, especially the north parts. Nope, Bexar County locked the hell down. Maybe the Hill Country, San Marcos/Wimberley area. Nope, Hays County locked the hell down too. Maybe some place way the hell out there like Abilene. Nope, Gov Abbott closed every bar in the state, slashed restaurant capacity, and made it a crime to go maskless.

    We're all in Austin now.

  2. #4932
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    Quote Originally Posted by abduality View Post
    For those that still believe the "experts" on what we need to do (wear masks, avoid large gatherings, etc.). Here is a WHO report from 2019, on non-pharmaceutical interventions for pandemic management. Some highlights from the summary (p. 99):

    Personal hygiene measures such as hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette and face masks are widely used as non-pharmaceutical intervention measures to reduce the risk of acquiring or spreading respiratory infections, and for mitigating pandemic influenza. However, our review identified a lack of compelling evidence for the effectiveness of hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette and face masks against influenza transmission in the community. There are still gaps in the evidence base which further research would help to fill.

    Ten RCTs were included in meta-analysis, and there was no evidence that face masks are effective in reducing transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

    Avoiding crowding including separating people into small groups or cancelling public gatherings is an effective intervention to prevent the spread of influenza. However, the effects of measures to avoid crowding in reducing transmission is uncertain.


    All of the interventions that are now necessary and mandatory in these difficult tiems, were thought to be completely ineffective merely one year ago (!).

    Makes sense, doesn't it? Biology is very different in 2020.
    This was my conclusion while reviewing the studies. All of the things that support mask usage are laboratory experiments or models. Every time they do meta-analysis of clinical settings, case studies or RCTs it falls apart, immediately. I'm glad I'm not just an idiot layman who was likely wrong.

    I'm just an idiot layman who was somewhat right. We don't know shit, still, in 2020.

  3. #4933
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    Mar 2019
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post



    Don't move to Austin. You're essentially moving to California.
    It fucking sucks here right now as a trainer at a commerical gym in austin. I’m having to deal with these irrate, fearmongering cunts (Mostly liberal males) who are freaking out because someone on the other side of the gym did a set with his mask not completely covering his nose and mouth.

    All fucking day these people come into the gym, bitch at the staff and threaten to call the authorities to have us shut down for not closely monitoring and enforcing mask policy on every member while they’re on the floor working out.

    Meanwhile, half of my clients are afraid to even step foot in the gym and an unemployment check pays twice as much as i can currently earn working at the gym.

    This is what the reward is for returning to work in Austin instead of suckling that government teet.

  4. #4934
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    Just a rant:

    I remember that stupid fuck, Fauci, standing up and telling everyone they didn’t need to wear masks. That they didn’t help. That medical workers needed them. I think it was back in March.

    Remember how he was so proud because he thought he might finally get rid of the god forsaken handshake because it was all about “contaminated surfaces” and people apparently picking their nose and poking themselves in the eye after touching one of these said dreaded surfaces?

    The lines for bleach and Lysol to clean those surfaces? The “asymptomatics” who were, and still are, apparently responsible for the fall of 0.2-0.5% of mankind? That we all needed to lockdown, socially isolate, and put people out of business because I guess there were a lot of contaminated surfaces out there? Remember the debate on whether you should wipe down grocery bags and how long coronavirus lived on certain surfaces?

    Now Fauci pleads with us to wear masks and acts baffled with the non-compliance. “Just 6-8 weeks of wearing masks, folks! That’s all I’m asking for! We wouldn’t even have to lock down.... AGAIN!” We can beat this thing if everyone wore a mask for 6-8 weeks.”

    Why couldn’t we have tried the mask thing first? Actually... Why didn’t we all just wear gloves first if now all it takes is a mask to prevent the spread? Why does the aerosol transmission vector only require a mask, but the “contaminated surfaces” required social distancing, lockdowns, and economic genocide?

    Why, instead, did we have to take the most austere measure possible? Wouldn’t everyone have been a lot more receptive if they just said, “We’re pretty sure it’s contaminated surfaces, but all the people in Wuhan, South Korea and Taiwan have these masks on. We’d recommend you wear a face covering until we figure this out. Meanwhile, try to enjoy yourselves at your local restaurant or pub and don’t cough in each other’s mouths.”

    That’s not the route they chose though. The route they chose was Fauci’s histrionics. It’s too bad Christopher Hitchens is dead, because I would give anything to hear him excoriate that moron.

  5. #4935
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    No, they didn't. Not at all.
    Shall I just take your word for that (re:1918 flu outbreak)? It might help if you describe along what dimensions you intended your original statement about this being the greatest expansion of government power in human history. I am genuinely interested/not trying to be a douchebag.

    Also WWI, WWII and the nuclear age, in general?

  6. #4936
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    Quote Originally Posted by abduality View Post
    For those that still believe the "experts" on what we need to do (wear masks, avoid large gatherings, etc.). Here is a WHO report from 2019, on non-pharmaceutical interventions for pandemic management. Some highlights from the summary (p. 99):

    Personal hygiene measures such as hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette and face masks are widely used as non-pharmaceutical intervention measures to reduce the risk of acquiring or spreading respiratory infections, and for mitigating pandemic influenza. However, our review identified a lack of compelling evidence for the effectiveness of hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette and face masks against influenza transmission in the community. There are still gaps in the evidence base which further research would help to fill.

    Ten RCTs were included in meta-analysis, and there was no evidence that face masks are effective in reducing transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

    Avoiding crowding including separating people into small groups or cancelling public gatherings is an effective intervention to prevent the spread of influenza. However, the effects of measures to avoid crowding in reducing transmission is uncertain.


    All of the interventions that are now necessary and mandatory in these difficult tiems, were thought to be completely ineffective merely one year ago (!).

    Makes sense, doesn't it? Biology is very different in 2020.
    I think you are misinterpreting the results and conclusions here. First, to say that there is a "lack of compelling evidence" (their phrase) is very different from saying that something is "thought to be completely ineffective" (your phrase). If you look at the studies they cited, most found a trend toward the effectiveness of masks and handwashing, but they did not meet statistical significance. This suggests that there is probably a benefit, but that it may be small and/or perhaps it is hard to study. Several of the studies cited found evidence of good effect of masks and handwashing in secondary analyses where they focused on subsets where the compliance was known (ie they presumably had observed frequency of masks and handwashing rather than relying on self-report). Secondary subset analyses are generally less reliable than the primary outcomes, so these were not considered in the overall conclusions of the analysis. But I think this is not surprising. In our hospital, long before COVID, we found that observed hand hygeine was much lower than self-reported hand hygeine among doctors and nurses.

    Of all the nonpharm interventions studied, masks and handwashing had the best evidence (their grade was "Moderate") for effectiveness. They did find some effectiveness with social distancing and strict travel restrictions as well, among other things. So in general, we would conclude that there is likely some benefit to doing these interventions, which should be weighed against the cost of doing it.

    As far as I can tell, the downsides of masks are:

    1. there is a small financial and time expense to using masks
    2. masks make some people feel bad

    The upside is that they probably provide some slowing to the spread of covid, flu, etc. So if you want this whole thing to be over, wearing a mask when you can't social distance makes sense.

  7. #4937
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoeM View Post
    Shall I just take your word for that (re:1918 flu outbreak)? It might help if you describe along what dimensions you intended your original statement about this being the greatest expansion of government power in human history. I am genuinely interested/not trying to be a douchebag.

    Also WWI, WWII and the nuclear age, in general?
    Okay. You got me. I was exaggerating. The US Economy was shut down for the flu in 1918. Everybody shut their businesses down during WWII. I should have looked that up like you did. This is no big deal. Hide under you table. Can't be too safe.

  8. #4938
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfsully View Post
    Of all the nonpharm interventions studied, masks and handwashing had the best evidence (their grade was "Moderate") for effectiveness. They did find some effectiveness with social distancing and strict travel restrictions as well, among other things. So in general, we would conclude that there is likely some benefit to doing these interventions, which should be weighed against the cost of doing it.
    Ok, before I get a ration of shit for this post, let me say that after submitting it I spend a little more time with the WHO paper and realized that I had also misinterpreted it a bit.

    They found the evidence “moderate” that masks and handwashing didn’t help, not that they did.

    I stand by my conclusions from the post above, however, based on my reading of their analysis, but I would admit that the evidence is even weaker than it seemed to me when I wrote it. My reading is that it is likely that masks and handwashing have some benefit. We can get into the specifics if anyone cares.

  9. #4939
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfsully View Post

    The upside is that they probably provide some slowing to the spread of covid, flu, etc. So if you want this whole thing to be over, wearing a mask when you can't social distance makes sense.
    How does slowing it down expedite it’s end?

  10. #4940
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    Milwaukee has a new mandatory mask order. In addition to the usual, demonstrable, ignorance of the policy makers. They included a religious exemption .

    I understand that they would want to appear sensitive to religion, and religious mask not wearing is so deep in the noise of this horse shit policy that it matters not at all, however they must have given some explicit rationalization. It might be part of my religion. I'm just not sure.

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