COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 56

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  1. #551
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Anybody?
    Of course the projections from three weeks ago didn't take into account any changes in behavior over that period.

    Indonesia may be revealing (noting many major differences in population density, behaviors, age, ethnicity etc so not in any way representative of anywhere else) as a country with very few mitigation in place.

  2. #552
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Le Comte View Post
    Of course the projections from three weeks ago didn't take into account any changes in behavior over that period.
    Of course not. What were they projecting?

  3. #553
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Le Comte View Post
    Indonesia may be revealing (noting many major differences in population density, behaviors, age, ethnicity etc so not in any way representative of anywhere else) as a country with very few mitigation in place.
    Interesting thought. Here are the numbers for Indonesia. 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Indonesia - Wikipedia A country with approximately 237 million as of 2010. Arrival date was on March 2 according to their president. 686 confirmed cases as of today with 55 deaths. The president hasn't placed the country on lock down yet.

  4. #554
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Spacediver, every year there is a flu season, and every year people die. If we address it in this new and exciting way, we cease to have modern economies and all the wonderful toys that come with it.

    From: Just a moment...

    Dr. Joel Kettner says:
    Did the flu overwhelm hospitals in China and Italy the way Covid-19 has here?

    Think about what happens when hospitals becomes overwhelmed. They start to lose their function. When hospitals lose their function, it's more than just an issue of a few old people dying. They're essential to the health of our species.

  5. #555
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    Not death projections, but case projections

    The Coronavirus Could Soon Infect Over 1 Million Americans | Time

    Note that the model may be updated so if anyone wants to track then you had better start logging these. As I read this, the US was projected to have 35,605 cases by 25/3 with low surveillance and intervention.

    Actual is 53,655 cases and 698 deaths. United States Coronavirus: 53,655 Cases and 698 Deaths - Worldometer

  6. #556
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    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    Did the flu overwhelm hospitals in China and Italy the way Covid-19 has here?
    Which US hospitals have been "overwhelmed" and what does that look like?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Le Comte View Post
    Not death projections, but case projections

    The Coronavirus Could Soon Infect Over 1 Million Americans | Time

    Note that the model may be updated so if anyone wants to track then you had better start logging these. As I read this, the US was projected to have 35,605 cases by 25/3 with low surveillance and intervention.
    Yes, the model was wrong. Wrong in your preferred direction, and badly wrong because of flawed assumptions, like models always have.

    Their worst case scenario is 1,382,926, which at the current overestimated mortality rate of 0.012% is 16595 dead people by April 30. Flu season kills 30000. But it's time to shut down the planet.

    India has 536 known cases in a population of 1.35 million people:

    HYDERABAD: Telangana CM K Chandrasekhar Rao on Tuesday said he
    will have no option but to give shoot-at-sight orders if people don't stay
    indoors during the lockdown period. Talking to reporters on Tuesday, he
    also threatened a 24-hour curfew if people violate lockdown orders.
    "Don't create a situation where government is left with no option but to
    give shoot-at-sight orders to the police," he said. Upset with the way
    people came out on streets on Monday and Tuesday, he said he may
    consider asking the Army to take over, besides shut down petrol pumps to
    keep people off the roads, he said. "Curfew would be implemented from 7
    pm to 6am and all shops should be closed by 6 pm daily," he said
    Do you see what's happening? Lemmings, off the cliff.

  7. #557
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Which US hospitals have been "overwhelmed" and what does that look like?
    The whole point is to act before they become overwhelmed.

  8. #558
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    Quote Originally Posted by porcopedico View Post
    It takes a while to recover. More than to die. Just be patient and you will be in the same situation as Italy in less then 2 weeks
    No we won't ever. And along with all the other complementary things I've said about Italy, there's all the cheek kissing and hugging. What an efficient way to spread a virus.

  9. #559
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    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    The whole point is to act before they become overwhelmed.
    Were they overwhelmed in 2009 by H1N1? What did it look like then? 1968, when 100,000 died in the US? 1957-58, when 116,000 died in the US? Why didn't we shut down the whole goddamn planet then?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Noah Ebner View Post
    At the end of the day, sure a few folks had to move back into apartments because of some fuckboy bankers, but nobody really got hurt by this and certainly nobody died as a direct result.
    Don't know where you lived in 2008, but here in Afton, VA, a region that fared better then most, I still knew quite a few folks that saw years of hard work and many thousands of dollars invested in their business's gone, never to return. The lucky ones are the few that bailed immediately, and took the pennies on the dollar. The rest lost all and spent years paying off the debit. And shall we talk about the $200,000 my mother lost when it all came down? That's $200,000 invested, not earned.

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