COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 560

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #5591
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark E. Hurling View Post
    Of course it will. Just like it did after Daddy Bush was succeeded by Lord Clinton and Obama the One replaced Bush the Younger. It always changes tone when one of their dem co-conspirators is in the White House.
    The degree to which so much of this is cult of personality or virtue signaling always initially goes over my head. To me, a thing or situation, is a thing not matter who's where. I don't care which party did what, just establish the rules of the game and stick to it. I forget (and am always shocked by) how married other people are to their various corners and labels.

    Quote Originally Posted by MashedTaters View Post
    4) Should we also adjust for obesity and T2 diabetes? We're a lot fatter now than 40 yrs ago during the Hong Kong flu 1968/1969, where about the same percentage (0.05%) died, and we did not shut down the country. Not even for Woodstock.
    Wondering this too. My state, Mississippi, is being really hit hard right now. (Supposedly, I admit to not knowing anything personally to confirm this in spite of living in the capital city.) We're all fat down here. Fat, diabetes, and no real exercise. We don't even have sidewalks most places here. And a high concentration of black folks- which they say are more susceptible to the virus. (Course, if you ask me it's because they continue to want to take all 12 of their kids to the WalMart but I'm not supposed to say that. We're supposed to pretend it's cuz racism.) So does my state have a Covid problem or not? If we're counting people who died from heart failure as Covid deaths how is that altering stats? The governor was standing firm but just caved calling a halt to schools opening and issuing a mask mandate. So the potentially FUBAR'd stats may be about to seriously decimate what's left of our economy. Which is messed up, to say the least. To destroy everything based on bad intel?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    That's rich considering how many people fled that city at the begining taking the virus out with them to other places. "New York City? Get a rope."

  2. #5592
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    The Atilis Gym owners made a strong appearance on CNN.
    Thanks for posting this, but I can't watch Chris Coumo talk to anybody.

  3. #5593
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    NYC Border Patrol...but I thought they were a sanctuary city

  4. #5594
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcj View Post
    Thanks. I appreciate the link to the dataset.

    I donít see how the comorbidity entails that the person necessarily would have died in the near term without COVID. Statistically Iím sure some would have died, but concluding all would have seems to be a step I donít follow.
    You're correct, but what we can conclude is that the disease doesn't typically kill apparently healthy people.

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  6. #5596
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    I canít tell what is parody and what is reality anymore. Iím in a constant state of manic depression. I blame Covid-19... no wait, I blame the popular reaction to Covid-19.

  7. #5597
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    No, it's not, because those numbers will not occur, the virus kills people who are already dying anyway, and a bad flu season kills more that this has.
    The 0.05% of population dead has nearly already happened, We are maybe around 0.045% now. You canít go back down to 0.003% no matter what happens. What does happen next is largely unknown, sure.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    And especially NO if the prevention/containment/eradication effort looks like it does now.
    Well yes, the response to this has been an uncoordinated heavy-handed mess. That is clear to everyone paying attention, I think.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    You realize that NYC is now basically a large homeless shelter (not that I really give a fuck)
    I do not realize this, and it would come as news to my relatives in NYC. But yes, there is a housing/rent/mortgage crisis in progress.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    and that there are serious estimates that 40% of the small businesses closed by this hoax will never ever reopen?
    That is certainly possible, though I doít think that most small business owners will totally give up and go on the dole permanently. Yes, this is an awful economic crisis, and would be even if it had been handled better, and may be worse economically in many cases because of the draconian response to a situation that feels out of control because of the lack of a rational response earlier on. But that doesnít change what the virus is or isnít.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    You're a good guy, sully, but you really REALLY need to stop doctoring for a couple of days and look at the Bigger Picture here.
    Yes, I have a pretty narrow perspective here, but I do not think that injecting facts into the debate should be a problem. Battle lines have been drawn politically around this thing, and I think that both sides do themselves a disservice by under- or overblowing the severity of the virus, or by ignoring facts that are tough to reconcile.

    Quote Originally Posted by bikesandcars View Post
    At the current published test/infection rates, the US will be infected in 2057.
    How was 2057 derived? Possible, I guess, if we REALLY slow this thing down.


    Quote Originally Posted by bikesandcars View Post
    How did the mis-marked covid deaths decrease from average yearly mortalities?
    I estimate based on state figures for co-morbidity approximately 15-20% of people that died from covid didn't have comorbidity.... i.e 15-20% of people purely died from Covid19
    If 2.5 million people die every year, and 154,000 people have died in 6 months (300K a year) and of that 300K only 15% died of covid-19 without comorbidity... our yearly number is 45K, which is on par our yearly influenza of 55K FastStats - Deaths and Mortality

    What do we do for the flu every year? We give a vaccine, treat people, tell sick people to stay home etc... but we don't shut down the world.

    The US government and the US Healthcare industry is not in the business of preventing disease.... politicians are in the business of getting elected, doctors are in the business of treating people for profit, hospitals are in the business of making money, the media is in the business of terrifying us for ratings.. a perfect storm if you will.
    You must be aware that flu kills people with pre-existing conditions at higher rates too. If you are filtering them out for purposes of comparing COVID with flu, you must do the same thing with flu deaths.

    The problem with filtering out people with the dreaded pre-existing conditions is that most people over 60 with obesity, diabetes, cardiac disease, COPD, cancer, etc. currently have a life expectancy greater than 1 year. So to say they were ďdying alreadyĒ is not accurate. Unless you postulate that we are all ďdying already,Ē in which case you are a French Existentialist. If so, cíest la vie.


    Quote Originally Posted by bikesandcars View Post
    What we need to do is get the information out there, ask people to be smart based on what we know about the disease, and let everyone figure it out.
    I agree, and my posts here are a way of humbly contributing some of that information and analysis, a certain amount of which I have (though not in advanced statistics, economics, or politics, unfortunately).

    Quote Originally Posted by bikesandcars View Post
    Much respect to you Mr. Sully, I do not have your intellect, credentials or experience, but that's my $.02

    We need to be cautious, but really we need to get over it and get back to living our lives.

    And I think I'll just leave that right here, for now.....
    I think you have plenty of intellect, and I am not dismissive of your analysis here, I just want to see the discussion based on the actual data, as best as we can determine it, so I chime in when I think I see something others have missed. I am also open to changing my mind.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ayrsson View Post
    Watch this TEN times:

    Dr. Deborah Birx | Recording Covid-19 as Cause of Death No Matter What - YouTube

    Perhaps after ten views it will by then have permeated your prefrontal lobes.
    I donít have prefrontal lobes. Are those lobes that you have before you develop frontal lobes? If you have prefrontal lobes you should work on growing your baby lobes into the real thing.

    I have no problem with what Birx says here. I do have a problem with ďanyone who dies with COVID in their system is a COVID death,Ē but that is not what she is saying. I have filled out a few death certificates over the years, and have spent lots of time in hospitals. Cause of death is nearly always multifactorial. Yes, COVID deaths are over-counted in some cases. They are probably also under-counted in some cases. Same with flu, cancer, and dementia, to name a few. We must work with the data we have, though it is never fully accurate and indisputable, especially in real time. I am sure we will have much better numbers in a few years, long after it was time to act.

    Basically, if you become critically ill from COVID, and then have a heart attack, you didnít really die from cardiac disease, though that was a contributing factor, sure. Thatís why itís ALSO listed on the death certificate, and why you can find the stats referred to above by Bikesandcars.

    If you are hit by a drunk driver and are rushed into trauma surgery, and have a cardiac arrest and die on the operating table, werenít you killed by the car accident? The other driverís lawyer will say you died from your preexisting cardiac issues, and will find some cardiac calcification on the autopsy to support this. I think that lawyer is wrong, and Iím sure your family would too.

  8. #5598
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfsully View Post
    You must be aware that flu kills people with pre-existing conditions at higher rates too. If you are filtering them out for purposes of comparing COVID with flu, you must do the same thing with flu deaths.
    This is the primary issue that worries us. All of us who are willing to think know the COVID-19 numbers, and we're not scared like we would be if we were discussing Ebola, or the Rage Virus from 28 Days Later. We all know that the flu kills people. So do car wrecks, smoking, and sitting squarely on our asses, none of which have resulted a government takeover of our lives. People die, between 2.5 and 3 million a year in the US. But only COVID-19 -- THIS YEAR, this one time -- has merited the bizarre response we have seen, that has destroyed the economy and irreparably damaged society.

    We're all wondering why this might be. That's the primary issue on our minds, and no discussion of what are in reality trivial death numbers from COVID-19 is going to address this question. Please try to understand: your begrudging admission of the existence of an uncoordinated heavy-handed mess is not satisfying to those of us whose businesses, jobs, and relationships have been gutted, and more Doctor Shit is not what we want to hear. Again, everybody on this board has a lot of respect for you, but in my opinion you need to back up, widen your perspective, and look at the rest of the facts at play here.

    Here's the disease: COVID-19: Data Summary - NYC Health We all know this. It's over, and we need to get back to work and to life, like we always have after flu season. But these idiots are telling us we can't. Every day they run brand-new fear porn to make us doubt what we really know to be true. We're getting mad. It's important to understand why, because very bad things are coming soon.

  9. #5599
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kitsuma View Post
    I think we now understand the "how", and we have pretty good theories regarding the "why".
    Shouldn't we now focus on the "who" so that we can point a military at them and tell them to stop it?

    Or are we still pretending this isn't a worldwide coordinated series of events? This level of lockstep coordination requires a head, which means you can chop it off.

    Left / Right, skin color, Dem/Repub, gender, country/city, culture wars...it's all to distract us from the "who". The beast is visible now.
    These heads of the "who" you are talking about are so hidden under layers of puppets running puppets, i don't know if such a strategy would be successful. We just need to pray that their greed will destroy themselves and further pray that the collateral damage from that fallout will not be too grave.

  10. #5600
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    Quote Originally Posted by gilead View Post
    These heads of the "who" you are talking about are so hidden under layers of puppets running puppets, i don't know if such a strategy would be successful. We just need to pray that their greed will destroy themselves and further pray that the collateral damage from that fallout will not be too grave.
    It seems like a great project for the Navy Seals. I think most of the scum have already been identified at this point in time.

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