But forget about those stupid models. Let me ask you an obvious question about the data that we have in hand right now. In the USA, right now, the death doubling time is around 3 days (
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research - Our World in Data). To the best of my knowledge transmission rates aren't even slowing, let alone stopping. To put this into perspective, at 3 days doubling time, the numbers would be something like this over the next 3 weeks:
Today: 800 deaths
+3 days: 1600 deaths
+ 6 days: 3200 deaths
+ 9 days: 6400 deaths
+ 12 days: 12,800 deaths
+ 15 days: 25,600 deaths
+ 18 days: 51,200 deaths
+ 21 days: 102,400 deaths
That takes us just beyond Easter, so let's hope Trump is right in thinking that the virus is Catholic and will turn itself off out of respect for our traditions.
But I really want to hear
your prediction: at what point in the next 3 weeks -- and why -- will this exponential increase will stop?