COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 616

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  1. #6151
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfsully View Post
    Looks to be about 200k, per CDC. This is total excess deaths, from any cause.
    Annual deaths in 2018 were 2,839,205. And we shut down a $22 trillion economy. Bigger picture, jf.

  2. #6152
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Annual deaths in 2018 were 2,839,205. And we shut down a $22 trillion economy. Bigger picture, jf.
    I just like the numbers to be right. I donít assume that the numbers make a case for anything specific, but the numbers matter to a point. If they didnít, nobody would bring them up. And if you do cite numbers, being off by a factor of 10 is worth correcting in most cases. A 10% increase in annual deaths is worth discussing. A 1% increase is not.

  3. #6153
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    A 10% increase in annual deaths is worth discussing, but it is not worth shutting down the economy for, especially since shutting down the economy also increases the death rate.

  4. #6154
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    I can't find the holes in this guy's analysis:

    https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/s...84443479642112

    In sum:

    Novel Covid Deaths 45,223
    Would Have Died Later in Year 118,773
    Died Because we Panicked 47,415

    Of course, his numbers are too precise, but conceptually this is so, so on the mark.

  5. #6155
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    A 10% increase in annual deaths is worth discussing, but it is not worth shutting down the economy for, especially since shutting down the economy also increases the death rate.
    Agreed.

    Someone may know if a 10% increase is within the variance (statistics). If it is, it is no more likely then a 10% decrease. For sure humans treat them differently, especially in terms of credit or blame, but statisticians are less human. The variance is probably more informative then the absolute number.

  6. #6156
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    Ireland are trialling a 'health passport' for the greater good. Play the video...creepy as hell.

    Home | Health Passport Ireland

  7. #6157
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    A 10% increase in annual deaths is worth discussing, but it is not worth shutting down the economy for, especially since shutting down the economy also increases the death rate.
    My worry is that a precedent has now been set. Some new thing will happen in the coming years, society will freak out to a similar degree, and the response will be just as overzealous.

    I think masks are going to become mandatory every flu season from now on. If society justified forcing everyone to wear them for something that's barely worse than the flu, why not use them for the flu itself?

    If governors were able to declare a state of emergency for Covid, why not fudge the numbers to make the next flu season look bad? Declaring a stare of emergency could be an effective way to swing elections.

    We've crossed the Rubicon. Lockdowns and mandatory clothing are permanent pages in every politician's playbook from here on out, unless legislation gets passed that says otherwise.

  8. #6158
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    In contrast to the above vomit from the MSM, here is an excellent speech from a Democrat member of the Tennessee legislature: Rep. John DeBerry - YouTube
    Excellent speech. It is really that simple, Floyd was a great opportunity for real change on policing that could impact all communities. That chance wasn't fully wasted, but "the movement" has been taken hostage and is now a distraction.

    We often point fingers at each other and are pessimistic about the future. We can certainly make things worse, but Americans have a great opportunity to make things much better. Americans care too much, some may think that is crazy due to our history, but it is true. We are so afraid of people getting hurt, offended, mistreated, discriminated against, or dying, that our response is sometimes worse than the problem (Covid? Wars,?). We look under every rock for racism, bigotry, tyranny,injustice, etc. that we often resemble a severe case of OCD.

  9. #6159
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    A 10% increase in annual deaths is worth discussing, but it is not worth shutting down the economy for, especially since shutting down the economy also increases the death rate.
    Sure, death rates and economic damage correlate well across countries. The best way to protect the economy (more specifically: maintain discretionary consumer spending) is to control the virus. The idea that these goals are in opposition is wrong, and will go down as a classic economic fallacy.

  10. #6160
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    Quote Originally Posted by ltomo View Post
    My worry is that a precedent has now been set. Some new thing will happen in the coming years, society will freak out to a similar degree, and the response will be just as overzealous.

    We've crossed the Rubicon. Lockdowns and mandatory clothing are permanent pages in every politician's playbook from here on out, unless legislation gets passed that says otherwise.
    Perhaps, but if so, it will depend on who is in power in DC and who is out of power first of all. Then it will depend on if who is out of power (probably the dems) see a possible advantage to gaining power from imposing these strictures. Even then, the only time ripe for it is an election year, particularly if the dems hate the current non-dem POTUS as much as they do this one. If history is any guide, this animus from dems has only grown since Nixon. Finally, if the current madness fails to unseat Trump, the punishment inflicted by dem governors and mayors on as much of the rest of the population for failing to elect Lady Clinton may be recognized as a bad strategy to use.

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