COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 639

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  1. #6381
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    • wichita falls texas december seminar 2020
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    Quote Originally Posted by ltomo View Post
    ...I haven't checked into any news outlets for the last several weeks...
    I have completely unplugged from traditional news sources and the manipulated social media news sources. Life is much better without them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    This is a good piece for those of you not up to speed on the "cases" problem and the policy disaster it has caused.

    COVID – why terminology really, really matters | Dr. Malcolm Kendrick
    Again: this article is no good. In fact, Kendrick is the one confusing CFR and IFR, because he didn’t scrutinize his citations. (To be fair, he inherited the screwup from CEBM, who in turn got it from this paper.) He writes:
    To quote the Centre for Evidence Base Medicine on the matter:

    ‘In Swine flu, the IFR (infection fatality rate) ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak).’
    Actually following the citations leads one to the following primary source:
    the case fatality ratio of the pandemic virus was approximately 0·02%.

  4. #6384
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    Straighten this out for us, Shiva. What is the error, and who made it?

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    Kendrick blames the preposterous death projections on Fauci's March editorial in the NEJM, particularly the claim that the flu has ~0.1% CFR. The first issue: that claim is reasonable.

    The second: epidemiologists are perfectly capable making their own atrocious mistakes. Kendrick doesn't know why they used ~1% IFR in UK:
    Actually, Imperial College reduced it slightly to 0.9%, for reasons that are opaque.
    They made their own estimate of 0.66% IFR in China; adjusting for UK demographics yielded 0.9% IFR. Which is wrong, of course. They used that estimate in models whose additional flaws cannot be concisely described, and persist to this day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    Again: this article is no good. In fact, Kendrick is the one confusing CFR and IFR, because he didn’t scrutinize his citations. (To be fair, he inherited the screwup from CEBM, who in turn got it from this paper.) He writes:

    Actually following the citations leads one to the following primary source:
    Are you familiar with what a quote is, Shiva?

  7. #6387
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    Kendrick blames the preposterous death projections on Fauci's March editorial in the NEJM, particularly the claim that the flu has ~0.1% CFR. The first issue: that claim is reasonable.

    The second: epidemiologists are perfectly capable making their own atrocious mistakes. Kendrick doesn't know why they used ~1% IFR in UK:

    They made their own estimate of 0.66% IFR in China; adjusting for UK demographics yielded 0.9% IFR. Which is wrong, of course. They used that estimate in models whose additional flaws cannot be concisely described, and persist to this day.
    You think this renders the whole article "bad"?

  8. #6388
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnst_nhb View Post
    Are you familiar with what a quote is, Shiva?
    He cites the numbers of someone who misquoted then from someone else, so he’s responsible for propagating the error. He sells a book deploring bad science, so he should know about this issue.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    You think this renders the whole article "bad"?
    It’s mostly basic observations about CFR and IFR, which may be helpful, but are marred by his own conflation of the two. Then, his two (incorrect) assertions about the editorial and the death models. He didn’t quite hit depth with this one.

  9. #6389
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    Rip,
    I know the joe rogan thing is kind of a running joke here, but I can’t empathize enough how important it is to listen to Tim Kennedy on this episode, especially in regards to what Russia is doing.

    It’s already been discussed earlier in the thread, but here you have it again from a green beret who knows exactly what’s going on behind the scenes.

    Joe Rogan Experience #1535 - Tim Kennedy - YouTube

    Here’s a clip from a different interview about the same topic, since not everyone wants to listen to a while podcast:

    "THEY HAVE BEEN DOING THIS FOR DECADES": Tim Kennedy On Russian & Chinese Anti-American Sentiment - YouTube

    Tim Kennedy is a bad motherfucker - people need to know.

  10. #6390
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    The clearest sign of the end of the pandemic is this new thing where they’re taking it out on kids. First it was the service staff, then it was young people going to bars and clubs and now we have taken the fight to the school age kids. There is no one left to take it out on after this.

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