# COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

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• 03-26-2020, 08:25 AM
Quote:

Originally Posted by lazygun37
OK, then... I am pretty sure we disagree on this because one of us is misunderstanding what the numbers in their table actually mean. Here is what I think they mean, and I am pretty certain I am correct:

So this is exactly what's going on in this table. For example, the 20.7% number in the "total" row and "hospitalization" column is calculated as the number of people who were hospitalized, divided by 2449. By contrast, the 31.4% is calculated as the number of people who were hospitalized, divided by the number of people in the sample for which we *know* whether they were hospitalized (which is smaller than 2449).

No. This does not appear to be what they did. The actual body of the paper states that there were 4226 cases reported, and 508 (12%) went to the hospital. Of these 4226, they were missing hospitalization data on 1514 cases (that leaves 2712 they had the info on). If you have hospitalization data on 2712 people and 508 went to the hospital, that’s 18.7%. No need to furiously masturbate the data further.

Instead, the 20.7% lower bound figure is 508/2449, which is… weird. They say "of 2,449 patients with known age", but they also say they are only missing age data on 386 patients out of 4226. Maybe 2449 is the hospitalized people they also had age data on. I don’t know. You probably don’t either because it’s not in the paper. Incidentally, they use this 2449 number for ICU and death rates as well, further compounding the statistical fuckery. The 31.4% upper bound figure is 504/1641. Where did 1641 come from? What the hell does that number represent? They don’t even mention it in the paper – I had to back it out of the percentage listed in the table.

You are very certain about the assumptions you make, and they turn out to be incorrect rather often. Like most recently when you assumed everyone in the ICU is on a ventilator, and Yngvi posted that it’s more like 50%.

The data/analysis/modeling is shit and we're making poor policy decisions based on that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrunoLawerence
I don't know if you will post the link or not, but this is about the most concise, non-sensationalist view of this I have seen regarding the infectious rate and overall mortality of this.

How you feel about the quote at the end will tell a lot about ourselves.

That quote works another way too. Why does your* right to not get a flu supersede everyone else's right to earn a living and provide for their family. Or, you know, just go for a drive (which we're not being allowed to do). Why can't you* just stay inside if you don't want to get sick and leave everyone to go about their business if they want to.

* Not you specifically Bruno, but the proverbial You.
• 03-26-2020, 09:42 AM
Soule
Last night at 8pm cst, Lifetime announced that it will be furloughing 90-95% of it’s employees to stay afloat.

I thought that the bill that passed yesterday would get me payroll, but apparently not.

At least I’ve built my garage gym and have plenty of great clients who will train through this bullshit!
• 03-26-2020, 09:44 AM
Culican
Quote:

Originally Posted by Nockian
On the cruise ship, they discovered virus surviving beyond 17 days on many surfaces.

They found viral RNA, not active and intact virus.
• 03-26-2020, 10:33 AM
wiigelec
Assumptions assumptions assumptions

Good:
“ Since February—which was either three weeks or a lifetime ago—epidemiologists have been trying to get the full scope of the number of infections here in the US. Mostly, that’s meant designing mathematical models. Flawed models, as Andrew Lover, an epidemiologist at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, readily admits. “We were breaking all kinds of rules,” he says of the early efforts. But the need was urgent. So researchers made do with limited data on the virus’s transmission rate in places like China and Singapore, and from just a few identified cases in the US. Lover, for example, extrapolated from a single case at the CPAC conference in late February. Others looked at cases caught after travel abroad, at deviations from the expected death rate, or at the genetic variation of viral samples.”

Researchers Push for Mass Blood Tests as a Covid-19 Strategy | WIRED

“But this mathematical narrative rests on several key assumptions that are not backed by real-world data, experts told Wired.”

Has half the UK already caught COVID-19? Probably not. | Live Science

And getting the important information requires going “maverick”:

• 03-26-2020, 11:07 AM
Mark Rippetoe
Quote:

Originally Posted by bearalift
I for one would appreciate those definitions. The thread so far has debated the health impacts of the virus in detail, but has only alluded to the potential real consequences stemming from a recessed economy. Assuming the ~4% hit to GDP and 9% peak unemployment with recovery in the summer as predicted by GS, what are the concrete impacts we should expect to see/fear in the US?

The previous record for unemplyment claims was 695,000 in October 1982. Last week, the unemployment claims total was 3.28 million. Helpful? Versteh?

Quote:

Originally Posted by PuliMorgan
Tomas Pueyo, author of the 40+ million read article “Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now", has just written a new article “ Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance“ that I think is relevant to our situation NOW. He also gives prognosis for next 18 months.

This guy had predicted a worldwide lockdown two weeks ago. Do read the article. Quite long, a lot of charts and data, but please read.

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance - Tomas Pueyo - Medium

I'll bet medium.com doesn't pull this one down, like they did the Ginn piece, now available here: https://startingstrength.com/files/e...f-hysteria.pdf

Quote:

That quote works another way too. Why does your* right to not get a flu supersede everyone else's right to earn a living and provide for their family. Or, you know, just go for a drive (which we're not being allowed to do). Why can't you* just stay inside if you don't want to get sick and leave everyone to go about their business if they want to.

* Not you specifically Bruno, but the proverbial You.

Goddammit Rob, this has been needed a long time. Thanks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wiigelec
Assumptions assumptions assumptions

Good:
“ Since February—which was either three weeks or a lifetime ago—epidemiologists have been trying to get the full scope of the number of infections here in the US. Mostly, that’s meant designing mathematical models. Flawed models, as Andrew Lover, an epidemiologist at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, readily admits. “We were breaking all kinds of rules,” he says of the early efforts. But the need was urgent. So researchers made do with limited data on the virus’s transmission rate in places like China and Singapore, and from just a few identified cases in the US. Lover, for example, extrapolated from a single case at the CPAC conference in late February. Others looked at cases caught after travel abroad, at deviations from the expected death rate, or at the genetic variation of viral samples.”

Researchers Push for Mass Blood Tests as a Covid-19 Strategy | WIRED

“But this mathematical narrative rests on several key assumptions that are not backed by real-world data, experts told Wired.”

Has half the UK already caught COVID-19? Probably not. | Live Science

And getting the important information requires going “maverick”:

Quote:

Originally Posted by ltomo
It's the government's job to manage the logistics and supply chain for American companies? They decide which companies get what supplies?

It may be that way soon.
• 03-26-2020, 11:44 AM
mpalios
Quote:

Originally Posted by Soule
Last night at 8pm cst, Lifetime announced that it will be furloughing 90-95% of it’s employees to stay afloat.

Lifetime channel? If yes, my life improves dramatically, since my wife loves that station, and it's awful.
• 03-26-2020, 11:51 AM
Fulcrum
Quote:

Originally Posted by Culican
Quote:

Originally Posted by Nockian
On the cruise ship, they discovered virus surviving beyond 17 days on many surfaces. .

They found viral RNA, not active and intact virus.

And with all those other time frames he listed, IIRC those are/were expressed in a half-life type of metric.

Even at "lasts 3 days" its reduced to almost nothing just before that point.
• 03-26-2020, 12:05 PM
BrunoLawerence
Quote:

That quote works another way too. Why does your* right to not get a flu supersede everyone else's right to earn a living and provide for their family. Or, you know, just go for a drive (which we're not being allowed to do). Why can't you* just stay inside if you don't want to get sick and leave everyone to go about their business if they want to.

* Not you specifically Bruno, but the proverbial You.

As was mentioned, this says a lot about us regarding the differences in approach to the problem. My argument would be that the economic hardships of this will be largely temporary, whereas death is not. As I said before, I am a healthcare worker who will be on the front lines of this. Your view places me at increased risk as hospitals start to become overwhelmed. My hospital specifically hasn't yet but, we know it is coming. It great that you want to "earn a living and feed your family", but given this viewpoint will increase the spread of the virus and cause increased burden on the healthcare system (as in being seen in several cities right now) what would you tell us healthcare workers after the limited resources are consumed and you start to infect us? Keep in mind PPE are a limited resource and unfortunately Macguyver was not my mentor.

What would you tell to the individuals outside the hospital who will inevitably become sick who will no longer be able to show up to work and earn a living to feed their family as they too are sick as you exposed them? Unfortunately ~60% of the country would be unable to cover a \$500 emergency expense without going debt. What happens when these people are off work for > 2 weeks sick assuming they are lucky enough to only have a mild form of the illness. Keep in mind a lot of people have no PTO or sick leave and would now be out 2 weeks pay. What happens to those people who are not so lucky and require hospitalization and they now have increased medical bills as well as lost wages that places them into bankruptcy? And then yes, you will also have others who will die. If we choose to do nothing and just live our lives I can assure you there are economic consequences for that as well.

I don't know what you do for a living and I too am bummed that my gym is closed. I can assure you though that barbell training is not the solution to the problem and the gym should be closed for now. If your job is nonessential stay home and we will get through this together. However, if you want to take the risk and go about your life please give the DNR order to yourself if you do show up to the hospital and save the ventilator for those you exposed to your stupidity.
• 03-26-2020, 12:12 PM
bearalift
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe
The previous record for unemplyment claims was 695,000 in October 1982. Last week, the unemployment claims total was 3.28 million. Helpful? Versteh?

Ah yeah, I saw that report, and it’s pretty remarkable. However, this isn’t what I’m after, as it just alters the peak unemployment assumption (previously 9% estimated by GS). What I want to know is: alright, so what?

Not being disingenuous here; I get that recessions are Bad (I don’t want myself or others to be broke) but so are Pandemics (I don’t want me or my family or others to die) so I want to understand what we’re really talking about, in concrete terms.