COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 77

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  1. #761
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    • texas starting strength seminar september 2020
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    It takes 20 min to get the results for a Covid-19 test, from taking the sample to displaying the (un)fortunate news to the tester. What exactly is the hold-up? The possibility of a mistake is less then 5%. And I'm talking about third world testing here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 8odin8 View Post
    It takes 20 min to get the results for a Covid-19 test, from taking the sample to displaying the (un)fortunate news to the tester. What exactly is the hold-up? The possibility of a mistake is less then 5%. And I'm talking about third world testing here.
    If the tests are held up, it is the health care bureaucracy holding them up, the part of the government that runs the health care industry in every country on earth. They want the numbers to come out a certain way: they want the CFR to be a big number, and the more tests they do that show an order of magnitude higher infection rate with the same number of dead bodies, the milder the disease is shown to be and the worse the governments' actions are shown to be. Compliance with this new authority is predicated on fear, and if you're not sufficiently afraid, you will not behave as you're told. Of course they won't test anybody that's asymptomatic. Why would they? They don't have a treatment for the damn thing anyway, so it makes absolutely no sense for them to test anybody that's not obviously sick, because this will reinforce the validity of their actions. There is an orthopedic surgeon in WF running around telling everybody that COVID19 is "10 times more deadly than the flu." So he's on the payroll.

    It's worked so far, but I predict that in 2 months a lot of people are going to feel differently about their government.

  3. #763
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    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    They can very easily be squared, because all the deaths you've been looking at in those past analyses are excess deaths. As mentioned earlier in this thread, the Italian Health Minister admitted last week that in only twelve per cent of all cases making up the published COVID19 death toll was COVID19 actually listed as the cause of death. In the other eighty-eight per cent of cases, although the person died with the virus, he may not have died of the virus. As a result it may be the case that up to eighty-eight per cent of the published Italian daily death rate are not in fact excess deaths caused by the virus.
    There was nothing new about that 12 percent report. Comorbidities are inexorably linked with both COVID-19 and influenza.

    Just in case you missed the responses earlier when you brought this up:

    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    If the death-coding practices in Italy do indeed differ from other countries' death-coding practices, then this is useful information.

    It also brings to light how difficult it is to establish causality. There will always be a fraction of patients who would have died even had they not been infected with COVID-19. And there are also a fraction of patients who would have died even had they not had these comorbidities (i.e. COVID-19 was the "sole" cause).

    The question is how to classify cause of death in a pandemic. I would hope there are guidelines to at least ensure consistency.

    Consistent or not, however, I don't think it's a coincidence that COVID-19 struck at the same time we see this rapid rise in ICU demand.

    Spain suffered 738 deaths over the last day, so perhaps they're also using the same death-coding practices as Italy?

    One technique to tease apart the causal influences would be to look at rate of overall deaths-due-to-illness in these countries, from year to year, and compare that with the current rate. There'd be uncertainty around this estimate, to be sure, but it would be valuable data.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    Italy is coding deaths in the same way as every country. That is the standard for infectious disease. The same happens with the flu, even though the flu, in of itself, rarely kills people.
    I don't think the data I just shared (peak of daily influenza deaths during 2016 flu season in italy vs COVID-19 peak deaths a couple days ago) help square the issue. It would only help square the issue if COVID-19 is disproportionately being included in causes of death relative to influenza being included as a cause of death in 2016.

    And I don't think that's the case.

    Here's the paper detailing the FluMOMO algorithm (which was used in the paper you shared, and from which I estimated the peak daily deaths due to influenza in Italy 2016).

    From that paper:

    Infection with the influenza virus may often lead to exacerbation of underlying chronic conditions or to secondary bacterial infections (15).

    Therefore, influenza is often not recorded as the primary cause of death, and using cause-specific data as an outcome may lead to underestimation of influenza-associated mortality.

    Furthermore, in most countries, cause of death is available with large delays. Therefore, timely estimation of influenza-associated mortality should be based on all-cause mortality, although this outcome may

    be associated with loss of some specificity. The present work started as an initiative within the EuroMOMO network, with the aim of obtaining a direct and timely estimation of mortality associated with influenza.
    So they clearly are trying to capture influenza related deaths even though they may not have been reported as being due to influenza. In other words, these influenza deaths are estimating higher numbers than if one were to go just based on official cause of death.

    And despite this higher estimate, it's still only 60 percent of the peak deaths associated with COVID-19.

    The other piece of information that is important is that we have italians pleading with the rest of the world not to repeat their mistake. Whether or not their situation applies to other countries, I don't think they are lying. I think it's more likely that what they are experiencing is an outlier compared to their past experience. The alternative is that they are lying, exaggerating, or have bad memories. I find that extremely unlikely.

    Assuming they are telling the truth, what else, other than COVID-19, would you attribute this current experience to?

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  5. #765
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    The bigger question of importance now is: Which faraday cages should we get for our phones?

    First major lawsuit has been https://www.expressnews.com/news/crime/article/Gun-groups-sue-Los-Angeles-sheriff-over-shutdown-15162430.php filed

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    If the tests are held up, it is the health care bureaucracy holding them up, the part of the government that runs the health care industry in every country on earth. They want the numbers to come out a certain way: they want the CFR to be a big number, and the more tests they do that show an order of magnitude higher infection rate with the same number of dead bodies, the milder the disease is shown to be and the worse the governments' actions are shown to be. Compliance with this new authority is predicated on fear, and if you're not sufficiently afraid, you will not behave as you're told. Of course they won't test anybody that's asymptomatic. Why would they? They don't have a treatment for the damn thing anyway, so it makes absolutely no sense for them to test anybody that's not obviously sick, because this will reinforce the validity of their actions. There is an orthopedic surgeon in WF running around telling everybody that COVID19 is "10 times more deadly than the flu." So he's on the payroll.

    It's worked so far, but I predict that in 2 months a lot of people are going to feel differently about their government.
    The government and most of main stream media outlets will ride this proverbial moped until the tires blow out and the gas runs out. Then they’ll dump it on the side of the road and commandeer the next passerby (disease, boogeyman from the Middle East, etc) to continue the narrative.

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    This may have been posted before; an interview with Dr John Ioannidis of Stanford University.
    YouTube

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    There are a lotter of 'better' curves to try and fit than a cubic (as acknowledged), but I agree that the idea of the growth continuing to be exponential (with the same base) is not at all realistic.

    My country has been put in lockdown for 4 weeks on the assumption of 90% infections and 2% case fatality!

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    spacediver, I accept that the true rate of excess mortality most likely lies somewhere in between the published death toll and the 12% of cases mentioned. However, pointing out the issues with general influenza attribution as you've done only strengthens my case, because it suggests that the published seasonal flu statistics may be lower than reality. Regardless, you miss the point by pinning the weight of my argument on whether or not Italy's coding of the death statistics is unusual either for their country or for this virus. The point is that those statistics make the virus appear to be much more lethal than it probably is, because they are not published in any sort of medical/statistical/epidemiological context. If the virus is extremely widespread, as many experts now believe it is, and 1,000 people died on one day after testing positive for it in Italy, then you must ask how many of those deaths are in excess of the ~1,800 average daily death rate for that country.

    It could be that not a single one is in fact an excess death, because so many people have the virus that they are bound to make up a significant portion of the normal daily death rate, and even those directly killed by the virus would have died anyway on the same or a similar timeframe from another cause. You could use statistics in a similar way to paint prostate cancer as a terrifying killer of old men, except that the vast majority of men who have it will not be killed by it, but will die of something else. But here's the rub: Covid19 is probably more likely to kill someone than prostate cancer, but when it does, how can we be sure that such a person would not have died from any other widespread coronavirus, or other kind of flu, or any other natural cause whatsoever? We all have to die of something. Once again, this is not the Black Death, and nor is it the Spanish Flu.

    You rightly bring up the anecdotal stories of medical panic from Italy, but again their significance is open to question. We know that seasonal flu regularly pushes the Italian health system to breaking point and often past it, but unfortunately that isn't deemed newsworthy to anything near the extent of this situation (the tragedy being that it is probably far more newsworthy). So you have a health system whose resources are already under immense strain as a matter of course. Now add a new virus which, unlike seasonal flu, people are scared out of their wits of spreading to others, and you end up in a situation where the drain on resources for each positive test is much greater than the strain for a positive test of seasonal flu, in terms of intensity of treatment, infection control, and so on.

    Here in Britain we have similar stories of temporary mortuaries being set up to store 'piles of bodies.' Of course, no one has ever seen these piles, and what ultimately matters is not whether these mortuaries are created, but whether they actually end up being used.

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