COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 80

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #791
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    • wichita falls texas june seminar date
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    I'll be keeping my eye on Virginia now. They just announced a shutdown until June 10th: Virginia Governor Ralph Northam - March

    Imagine telling every working (or currently unemployed) body in your state that they're fucked, for 70 days.

  2. #792
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    At least he’s asking the right question.
    There were 4 other questions, all of which are more interesting to everybody else.

  3. #793
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    There are lots of other questions, all ill-posed in the absence of substantial data, and of little relevance to the immediate response.

    Suppose COVID-19 has already infected a substantial amount of the population, and has the same IFR as the flu. We would still need to take drastic measures to stabilize the hospital system over the next 2-3 weeks.

    On the other hand, suppose the IFR is 1-2%. We would still need to lift the lockdowns after a few weeks, because the economy cannot continue in any other fashion. Maybe we squat in OV/P100 respirators*, but things have to get back normal.

    * I have tried this and do not suggest it.

  4. #794
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    There are lots of other questions, all ill-posed in the absence of substantial data, and of little relevance to the immediate response.
    What do you think of Professor Northam's plan for Virginia, formed in the absence of substantial data?

  5. #795
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    There are some indicators this community will survive the pandemic.

    Cholesterol and COVID-19 — STATIN NATION

    Steak and eggs for everyone!

  6. #796
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    I think maintaining lockdowns for over 2 months is not tenable.

  7. #797
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    What do you think of Professor Northam's plan for Virginia, formed in the absence of substantial data?
    Classic prisonerís dilemma. If he shuts the state down and it gets really bad, he did all he could. If he shuts the state down and itís not that bad, it can be spun that it wasnít bad BECAUSE he shut it down. If he leaves things alone and itís not that bad, heíll still get crap for being reckless. If he leaves it alone and it gets bad, heís directly responsible.

    The options clearly favor shutting the state down. This is of course from the position of a politician, and not a leader who makes fact-based decisions that are in the best interest of those he is serving.

  8. #798
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    I think maintaining lockdowns for over 2 months is not tenable.
    Just out of curiosity, what do you do for a living?

  9. #799
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    To me the most compelling reason given for a total lockdown has been that otherwise the load on the healthcare system would be unmanageable.

    But someone compared the total number of COVID hospitalizations to flu hospitalizations of the last several years. The comparison is telling: while COVID hospitalizations are surely increasing, they are nowhere near the peak levels of some previous flu seasons.

    Why wasn't the healthcare system burdened back then?

    Putting on my self-critical hat...possible reasons, which would be amazing if someone could test/falsify, for why this might be:

    1. Displayed in the graph are cumulative hospitalizations, but hospital burden is a function of total daily admits (in other words, cumulative is the integral of daily, over time). Maybe COVID leads to greater daily admissions? As a stupid extreme, just imagine that all 13K patients showing up on the same day...that would be a problem. However, this doesn't square with the 2017-2018 flu season, which has a really steep slope (and current COVID hospitalizations don't appear to be increasing at the same rate; at least at the aggregate national level).

    2. COVID requires longer hospital stays, so capacity is reached sooner. For flu, it seems that the average length of stay is around 6 days. I've seen COVID numbers go as high as 11 days (Wuhan data). Could be a reason.

    3. COVID cases are more clustered geographically, whereas flu is more spread out. But if this is the case, then targeted lock-downs make more sense than wanting to shut the whole country down.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rob Waskis View Post
    Classic prisoner’s dilemma. If he shuts the state down and it gets really bad, he did all he could. If he shuts the state down and it’s not that bad, it can be spun that it wasn’t bad BECAUSE he shut it down. If he leaves things alone and it’s not that bad, he’ll still get crap for being reckless. If he leaves it alone and it gets bad, he’s directly responsible.

    The options clearly favor shutting the state down. This is of course from the position of a politician, and not a leader who makes fact-based decisions that are in the best interest of those he is serving.
    Yup. For the politicians, there's zero incentive to NOT being draconian -- especially when the masses are clamoring to give up their liberty. This is strong leadership, they say.

  10. #800
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaimi Kuenzli View Post
    I'll be keeping my eye on Virginia now. They just announced a shutdown until June 10th: Virginia Governor Ralph Northam - March

    Imagine telling every working (or currently unemployed) body in your state that they're fucked, for 70 days.
    To be fair, and mind you, I don't like this piss-ass, liberal, anti gun, governor, the order is less draconian then it sounds. Here's a newspaper highlighting some of it.
    Open or closed: How Governor Northam’s stay-at-home order affects you | 8News

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