COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 87

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  1. #861
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    What did they die of? Not with? Look at the criteria for inclusion.
    No, I know what you meant. That's why I asked why you think they were tested. The answer to which is that they were symptomatic.

    Your contention is that these are just deaths that would have occurred anyway, coronavirus or no. My contention is that that's absurd. First, there is nowhere near the testing capacity for that. Coronavirus Testing In New York City Hospitals Still Falling Behind : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR Second, in line with this, CDC guidance suggests testing only for cases where COVID-19 is already suspected based on contacts or symptoms. Interim Guidance: Healthcare Professionals 2019-nCoV | CDC Third, in today's NY Governor's press conference, there was a specific question about posthumous testing. The response was that this was done in cases where the patient's symptom's were consistent with COVID-19, i.e. respiratory in nature. YouTube ; about 33:40 in.

    But fourth, and this should really be obvious: the breakdown of "business as usual" mortality in NYC is pretty typical -- e.g. in 2014, roughly 55% of deaths were associated with heart disease and cancer, with the rest being a wide range of other stuff. So are you seriously suggesting that pretty much *everybody* who died this week in NYC -- regardless of whether they died from cancer, from a heart attack, from a stroke, or from whatever else -- was (a) immediately tested, (b) had the virus (implying that literally everybody in NUC is already infected), and (c) was then mis-diagnosed as a COVID-19 death?

    I'm pretty sure your answer will be that, yes, you do seriously believe that. So I already declare myself out of this conversation for another couple of weeks. Because by then one of us is clearly going to be right, and the other is clearly going to be wrong. Your prediction is that the weekly COVID-19 death rate cannot and will not increase anymore (because it's already at normal all-cause mortality levels). My prediction is that -- unfortunately -- it will.

  2. #862
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlamingoDeFranc View Post
    You know what's funny? I was sharing the Iceland article on social media earlier today (in an effort to try and raise awareness), and pretty much nobody wanted to listen to it. Even funnier, it was getting the label of 'fake news'. Anyways, CNN recently put their own version out. I wonder if people will pay that any attention. Probably not, it doesn't have death in the title. Iceland lab testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases are asymptomatic - CNN

    America is obsessed with death and murder. It can be seen in all of the serial killer documentaries on Netflix. Advertising knows this, and the media knows this. They know how to sell news and create sensation because that's what drives their viewership and makes them money. High mortality rates (that already existed) are all the general population care about. Everything else is just too boring to actually be news and therefore, even considered. It's interesting that the 'fake' news everyone keeps brushing off is all based in establishing the facts. Because the facts aren't known. Still, people keep trying to post 'facts' and as evidence turns up that dismantles those 'facts' it's just disregarded.

    That's alright, common sense ain't common.

    It's obvious why social distancing and the quarantine was so quick to take off, the general public are really just sheep ready to be herded and told where to go and what to believe in. Want to challenge that? Just look at any group setting of 30 and watch how many leaders step forward. Want to challenge how often the majority is wrong? Well, I know at one point the majority believed the Earth flat. At another point, the majority believed Caucasians were superior to all other ethnic groups. Moving forward, the majority believed the housing market was stable and could never possibly crash. Are we seeing a trend yet people?

    Wake the fuck up, people.
    If I'm reading this article right, about 9000 self-selected people in Iceland were tested. Less than 90 (1%) tested positive. Roughly half (~45) of them were, at the time of testing, asymptomatic. How is a sample of this size useful in generalizing anything about COVID, other than perhaps the vast majority of people do not have (and probably have not had) the virus?

  3. #863
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    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    But fourth, and this should really be obvious: the breakdown of "business as usual" mortality in NYC is pretty typical -- e.g. in 2014, roughly 55% of deaths were associated with heart disease and cancer, with the rest being a wide range of other stuff. So are you seriously suggesting that pretty much *everybody* who died this week in NYC -- regardless of whether they died from cancer, from a heart attack, from a stroke, or from whatever else -- was (a) immediately tested, (b) had the virus (implying that literally everybody in NUC is already infected), and (c) was then mis-diagnosed as a COVID-19 death?
    I am suggesting that it is in the interest of people such as yourself to declare death by COVID-19 in anyone who tests positive for the virus no matter the actual cause of death. The fact that there is a death in NYC every 9.1 minutes means that lots of people die from lots of things in NYC, and the benign nature of over half of the cases of COVID-19 lends itself nicely to being classified as a cause of death in a patient with hypertension, lung cancer, heart disease, and COVID-19.

    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    I'm pretty sure your answer will be that, yes, you do seriously believe that. So I already declare myself out of this conversation for another couple of weeks. Because by then one of us is clearly going to be right, and the other is clearly going to be wrong. Your prediction is that the weekly COVID-19 death rate cannot and will not increase anymore (because it's already at normal all-cause mortality levels). My prediction is that -- unfortunately -- it will.
    Are you concerned about your business or your job?

    Quote Originally Posted by BMueller View Post
    If I'm reading this article right, about 9000 self-selected people in Iceland were tested. Less than 90 (1%) tested positive. Roughly half (~45) of them were, at the time of testing, asymptomatic. How is a sample of this size useful in generalizing anything about COVID, other than perhaps the vast majority of people do not have (and probably have not had) the virus?
    How do you know that the tested people were self-selected?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Are you concerned about your business or your job?
    Are you concerned about changing subject every time we get to this point in the conversation?

    If you don’t care about a million excess deaths so long as it keeps the economy going another month, just have the guts to say that. And if you really think this is all just hysteria purely based on your gut instinct, then say that. But it’s disingenuous and irresponsible to say “the evidence shows it’s not a big deal” when the very data you cite says the opposite. Repeatedly.

    Finally, please remind me of your strategy for making people go to work and eat in restaurants once they are actually scared. Not because of hype, but because they experience the problem first hand in their own community. Like New Yorkers are beginning to.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    [I]t is in the interest of people such as yourself to declare death by COVID-19 in anyone who tests positive for the virus no matter the actual cause of death.
    Purely out of interest: what kind of people do you think I am?

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    Here is something important that I haven't seen discussed. Every country uses a different assay design for their RT-PCR test. Here are the different protocols used in China, USA, Italy, France, etc.

    RT-PCR tests are usually designed to be very specific and relatively insensitive. However, different countries have reported very different sensitivities - South Korea as high as 95%, and USA between 70 and 80%. This leads me to believe that the specificities are quite different as well.

    If the RT-PCR tests behave differently in each country, then all the derived statistics (including CFR, IFR, etc.) cannot be compared.

    Apparently, recent work supports my suspicion. At low viral concentrations, the different assays indeed exhibit different behavior. This may partially explain the low hospitalization and case fatality rates in countries with liberal testing policies (i.e. South Korea and Germany, and the (present) futility of randomly testing the population. This problem will be exacerbated by all the at-home / rapid diagnostic tests recently approved for emergency use by the FDA (probably with little validation.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    How do you know that the tested people were self-selected?
    The article specifically says so. And it is cited as a source of bias in the data. Which is already plagued by being far too small a sample.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    If you don’t care about a million excess deaths so long as it keeps the economy going another month, just have the guts to say that. And if you really think this is all just hysteria purely based on your gut instinct, then say that. But it’s disingenuous and irresponsible to say “the evidence shows it’s not a big deal” when the very data you cite says the opposite. Repeatedly.
    Fuck you, but okay: people are going to die. Maybe more than were going to die anyway, maybe the same number. After that, what do we do? Some of us have spent our lives building businesses that you people are hell-bent on sacrificing. We are not happy about this, and your straw man restatement of "a million excess deaths so long as it keeps the economy going another month" continues to ignore the rest of this problem, the part of it that we and not you are facing.

    Finally, please remind me of your strategy for making people go to work and eat in restaurants once they are actually scared. Not because of hype, but because they experience the problem first hand in their own community. Like New Yorkers are beginning to.
    New York is not the universe. New Yorkers fail to understand this. Not all of us are as scared to get sick as we are about losing our livelihoods and our independence. I've been sick before, but I've never been under house arrest before, and I'd rather be sick.

    Purely out of interest: what kind of people do you think I am?
    The kind of people who don't care that other people are going to be ruined by people like you, who only care about the disease and not the destruction your response to the disease is causing. The kind of people who dodge the question when asked about your business or your job. The kind of people who do not hesitate to proclaim businesses to be either essential or non-essential, with no thought whatsoever to the long-term economic consequences of such a pronouncement by the government. I think you are a bureaucrat of some sort, that cannot be fired and who will not suffer with the rest of us. Again sir, fuck you.

    Quote Originally Posted by BMueller View Post
    The article specifically says so. And it is cited as a source of bias in the data. Which is already plagued by being far too small a sample.
    It's the largest sample of a whole population we have. But you're right: all the data is shit, for various reasons, and we really don't know much about what's going on. That has not kept people like lazygun from making policy based on it, and damn the consequences.

  9. #869
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Fuck you, but okay: people are going to die. Maybe more than were going to die anyway, maybe the same number. After that, what do we do? Some of us have spent our lives building businesses that you people are hell-bent on sacrificing. We are not happy about this, and your straw man restatement of "a million excess deaths so long as it keeps the economy going another month" continues to ignore the rest of this problem, the part of it that us and not you are facing.
    If you knew someone was positive for Covid-19, would you allow them to train in your gym even if they were asymptomatic? How would your business be affected if a large percentage of your clientele became ill from such a person and it was traced back to your gym.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jfsully View Post
    The paper you linked seems to draw the opposite conclusion (absence of a link from deaths of despair to economic trends):



    Also, the recent rise in deaths of despair appears to be driven almost entirely by opioids, starting in 2000 and rising steadily through boom and bust. I think there are other factors here besides recession.
    You are quite right; I cited their paper for the numbers, not their interpretation of the numbers.

    I agree that the opioid epidemic may have created a lot of noise or possibly was even a mostly independent issue.

    Median Household income dropped substantially beginning in the year 2000.
    Real Median Household Income in the United States (MEHOINUSA672N) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

    Household Income and Wealth Gains Favor Older Americans

    The graphs shows real median household income recovering to 1999 levels in 2016, however the biggest factors in cost of living are not accounted for by inflation. We know rent, housing prices, transportation prices and education prices skyrocketed in that time frame; if you are to adjust the model for those very substantial costs, the real median household net worth, especially for those under 60, has been on a continuous and substantial downward trend since about 1999.

    I saw an interview with an obese epidemiologist who by his own admission has a poor diet and does not exercise. It really triggered me:

    This man is not doing his part to flatten the curve. We know obesity, lack of exercise and a poor diet are associated with poor outcomes for the covid-19. People like him will be overwhelming the healthcare system, placing thousands in danger and he will be much more infectious than the average person who contracts the virus.

    We must criminalize obesity now. We must criminalize sedentary behaviour now. Lock him up until he reforms. This man does not have the right to be a fat slob when he is putting my life and the lives of thousands of others in danger! Is his right to be a lazy, glutenous land whale more important than the lives he is putting at risk? It is for his own good and the safety of all of us. Think of the children!

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