COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 93

starting strength gym
Page 93 of 376 FirstFirst ... 43839192939495103143193 ... LastLast
Results 921 to 930 of 3757

Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #921
    Join Date
    Jan 2019
    Posts
    174

    Default

    • wichita falls texas june seminar date
    • texas starting strength seminar september 2020
    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    Do you also advocate the shut down of the economy every flu season?
    COVID-19 is much more infectious, so more staff have to take contact and droplet precautions for a longer time, which has lead to desperate shortfalls in PPE. COVID-19 is also more consumptive of ICU resources; for example, mechanical ventilation lasts 11-21 days (NY average, per Cuomo) rather than 3-4 days for the flu. This leads to correlated failures; for example, because the PPE situation is so bad, aerosolizing procedures have been avoided in favor of "early venting", which accelerates the usage of ventilators beyond what would be anticipated.

  2. #922
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Israel
    Posts
    541

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by elVarouza View Post
    We’re around 1k per day now and haven’t even gotten started.
    And you know this how? Do you have any real data on what percentage of the population has already been infected?

  3. #923
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    North Texas
    Posts
    41,940

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    COVID-19 is much more infectious,
    You have absolutely no way of knowing this, any more than you know what percentage of the population is or has been infected.

  4. #924
    shabu is offline Starting Strength App Developer
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    619

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by abduality View Post
    And so it begins.

    The EU Watches as Hungary Kills Democracy - The Atlantic

    Yet, still no convincing evidence for overwhelmed healthcare systems.

    And still no excess mortality in Japan and Sweden, who haven't locked down. Can the healthcare folks explain?
    I would suggest a few theories.

    This appears to be transmitted by the air rather than by touch (or perhaps a combination of both), and the WHO has already made blanket statements that this is transmitted by touch and not by air.

    Imagine if we find out that in fact this is primarily transmitted by air and most people wouldn't be at risk if they just wore an N95 mask when out and about? This seems to be the case in Japan and Korea where masks usage is extremely high.

    Is the Coronavirus Airborne? Should We All Wear Masks? - The Atlantic
    Confusingly, in public-health circles, the word airborne has a technical meaning that’s not just “carried through the air.” When people are infected with respiratory viruses, they emit viral particles whenever they talk, breathe, cough, or sneeze. These particles are encased in globs of mucus, saliva, and water. Bigger globs fall faster than they evaporate, so they splash down nearby—these are traditionally called “droplets.” Smaller globs evaporate faster than they fall, leaving dried-out viruses that linger in the air and drift farther afield—these are called “aerosols.” When researchers say a virus is “airborne,” like measles or chickenpox, they mean that it moves as aerosols. When the World Health Organization asserts that the new coronavirus is “NOT airborne,” it’s claiming that the virus instead spreads primarily through the close-splashing droplets, which either land directly on people’s faces or are carried to their faces by unwashed, contaminated hands.

    Such messaging is “really irresponsible,” argues Don Milton, an expert in aerosol transmission at the University of Maryland. The scientific community doesn’t even agree about whether aerosol transmission matters for the flu, so “to say that after three months we know for sure that this [new] virus is not airborne is … expletive deleted,” he says. Milton and other experts who study how viruses move through the air say that the traditional distinction between big, short-range droplets and small, long-range aerosols is based on outdated science. Lydia Bourouiba of MIT, for instance, has shown that exhalations, sneezes, and coughs unleash swirling, fast-moving clouds of both droplets and aerosols, which travel many meters farther than older studies predicted. Both kinds of glob also matter over shorter distances: Someone standing next to a person with COVID-19 is more likely to be splashed by droplets and to inhale aerosols.
    I'd say there's a couple of other factors at play too

    The % of people who live alone is far higher in those countries - Sweden over 40% of adults live alone.

    Japanese particularly, are far more hygenic. No shoes inside, no outside clothes worn inside, rigorous bathing culture. Plus the high usage of N95 masks.

  5. #925
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Posts
    49

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    COVID-19 is much more infectious, so more staff have to take contact and droplet precautions for a longer time, which has lead to desperate shortfalls in PPE. COVID-19 is also more consumptive of ICU resources; for example, mechanical ventilation lasts 11-21 days (NY average, per Cuomo) rather than 3-4 days for the flu. This leads to correlated failures; for example, because the PPE situation is so bad, aerosolizing procedures have been avoided in favor of "early venting", which accelerates the usage of ventilators beyond what would be anticipated.
    Supposing this is true: why aren't we seeing carnage in Japan and Sweden, who aren't under martial law like the US?

    I'm genuinely curious.

  6. #926
    Join Date
    Jan 2019
    Posts
    174

    Default

    I'm not talking about the unknown infection rate for the population at large. I'm talking about the number of healthcare workers who have contracted COVID-19, developed symptoms, and tested positive. And the crazy PPE situation.

    You guys are the ones obsessed with unknown statistics of bad, limited data. I am focused on the short-term metrics needed to keep the system operational for the next 2 weeks.

  7. #927
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    North Texas
    Posts
    41,940

    Default

    Yes, and we are obviously focused on the bigger picture, which you refuse to acknowledge.

  8. #928
    Join Date
    Jan 2019
    Posts
    174

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by abduality View Post
    Supposing this is true: why aren't we seeing carnage in Japan and Sweden, who aren't under martial law like the US?
    Maybe COVID-19 will never take off in those countries, and their hospitals will remain unperturbed. (If they are wise, they should procure supplies anyway.)

  9. #929
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Posts
    417

    Default

    Complaining that the numbers are all over the map reflects a lack of insight into the fact that we are not set up to have real-time data of this sort. We will only know how bad COVID gets after the fact. This means that complaining that politicians are making decisions based on "poor data" is nonsensical. At this point there is no other kind of data available. It is not possible to wait for good clean data. Waiting until the dust settles and hoping for the best in the meantime is one specific strategy, and one that most politicians aren't comfortable with. Making decisions based on clear, consistent, reliable data is not a luxury often found in medicine or economic policy-making.

    Right now it is possible to cherry-pick all manner of "data" to make pretty much any case you like. The numbers will settle and converge over time. Everyone reports things differently and on a different timetable. Public health data is a mess and needs to be cleaned. This is not engineering. I know that the conspiracy-minded will worry about retrospective book-cooking, but there will be enough public datasets that investigators from all over the political spectrum will have a chance to hash it out and fit the best curves.

    Our government is meant to listen to the experts (on medicine, the economy, etc) and make the best decision it can based on whatever imperfect data is available. After this is over we can hold them accountable for over- or under- reacting. There is about zero chance that a government will get its response to something like this exactly right.

    So if you think that your state and local government are sacrificing business, people's financial security, and the economy unnecessarily, let them know. If you think they are being cavalier and stupid in the face of a public health crisis, let them know that.

    After this is settled, I am certain of few things, among them is this: everyone in politics will find a way to justify what they did or didn't do, and will take credit for things they didn't accomplish and assign blame elsewhere for their own misdeeds or negligence. Our job is to hold them accountable.

    Assuming that people you agree with politically also happen to naturally be right about this epidemic or the economic consequences is naive. Nobody is wrong about everything. Well, a few people on these forums maybe, but other than that...

  10. #930
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    North Texas
    Posts
    41,940

    Default

    starting strength coach development program
    Quote Originally Posted by jfsully View Post
    Complaining that the numbers are all over the map reflects a lack of insight into the fact that we are not set up to have real-time data of this sort. We will only know how bad COVID gets after the fact. This means that complaining that politicians are making decisions based on "poor data" is nonsensical. At this point there is no other kind of data available. It is not possible to wait for good clean data. Waiting until the dust settles and hoping for the best in the meantime is one specific strategy, and one that most politicians aren't comfortable with. Making decisions based on clear, consistent, reliable data is not a luxury often found in medicine or economic policy-making.

    Right now it is possible to cherry-pick all manner of "data" to make pretty much any case you like. The numbers will settle and converge over time. Everyone reports things differently and on a different timetable. Public health data is a mess and needs to be cleaned. This is not engineering. I know that the conspiracy-minded will worry about retrospective book-cooking, but there will be enough public datasets that investigators from all over the political spectrum will have a chance to hash it out and fit the best curves.

    Our government is meant to listen to the experts (on medicine, the economy, etc) and make the best decision it can based on whatever imperfect data is available. After this is over we can hold them accountable for over- or under- reacting. There is about zero chance that a government will get its response to something like this exactly right.

    So if you think that your state and local government are sacrificing business, people's financial security, and the economy unnecessarily, let them know. If you think they are being cavalier and stupid in the face of a public health crisis, let them know that.

    After this is settled, I am certain of few things, among them is this: everyone in politics will find a way to justify what they did or didn't do, and will take credit for things they didn't accomplish and assign blame elsewhere for their own misdeeds or negligence. Our job is to hold them accountable.

    Assuming that people you agree with politically also happen to naturally be right about this epidemic or the economic consequences is naive. Nobody is wrong about everything. Well, a few people on these forums maybe, but other than that...
    A well-measured post.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •