COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 95

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #941
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Amateurishly, I agree with these guys, but for different reasons than they state. It seems to me that many people are forgetting some crucial motives that governments around the world might have in this outbreak. Let me throw a few thoughts into the pot, because you guys are focusing on just some parts of the problem, which has led to unnecessary tensions among the forum members.

    Say you get a rapid spread of the virus through the general population with no government response whatsoever. Say you get a comparatively large casualty rate, which is bound to get reported, the media are in a huge frenzy over this from all angles, and you can't really stop the media from clickbaiting. In situations like these, it does not take much for people to start organizing themselves "against" the infected (sadly, speaking from personal experience here, but let's not dwell on it). Now this is less of a problem in smaller or tighter knit communities than it is in large multinational and multi ethnic ones. You got less of a problem with this in Asian countries, which are both ethnically homogeneous and have less of a problem with class differences (I'm most admittedly not a Marxist, but the motherfucker is becoming more relevant by the hour), then you do in large cities across the West. Now, organizing these days is easier than at any point in human history.

    It does not take long for someone to decide that there is an disproportionate number of infections among say, black people in a major city, or white people, Asian people, Arab immigrants (a major source of tension in Europe these days), rich people, poor people and so on. Things can spiral out of control at a fairly rapid pace from then on, bringing to the fore a lot of previously built up resentment, which easily turns to open confrontations that have to be quelled by large scale police or even military deployment. Then somebody gets shot, the cops get accused of racism or whatever, and escalations become even more of a threat. France, for instance, gets street rioting at least once every two years.

    Now, whether imposing curfews to mitigate the threat of such events are an appropriate response is another matter, but I'm fairly sure it has been not only considered in response to Covid19, but is actually part of protocols dealing with situations like these. So I agree with these guys that the police state is being imposed at a rapid pace, but I'm not sure that they, or many others commenting on this, are necessarily seeing the whole picture. Which is kind of normal, it is completely impossible to see the whole picture in a scenario as complex as this, so we're all bound to evaluate the situation from our own perspective. Couple that with the general hysteria and uncertainty, all of our predictions will turn out much grimmer than the situation might actually require.

  2. #942
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    This is the last of this shit I will approve.
    I just started getting into this logical fallacies thing. Mind if I take a crack at this one?

    Yes, the government will never allow us back outside of our houses again.
    Slippery slope fallacy.

    Just an FYI, this is the same blog that claims "rainbow Doritos" are a gateway to homosexuality! Fucking fantastic stuff that group publishes. You might as well be publishing articles from "the onion". However, this particular group wants to be taken seriously and these particular articles aren't written as satire.
    Blatant ad-hominem.

    How did I do?

    10 Logical Fallacies You Should Know and How to Spot Them

  3. #943
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    Quote Originally Posted by abduality View Post
    Supposing this is true: why aren't we seeing carnage in Japan and Sweden, who aren't under martial law like the US?

    I'm genuinely curious.
    The US isn't under martial law. Geez.

    Sweden is not trending positively. They lag compared to Italy, France and Germany... but the numbers aren't good.

  4. #944
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    I can't be arsed to read the whole thread, but I'm reasonably skeptical of the way this is all being handled. The models seem to vary widely (probably for good reasons) [1]. I though the original British approach based on Herd Immunity was fairly sensible, but then the Imperial University Study came out and everyone flipped out.

    If it was me, I'd isolate the vulnerable as much as possible, and let everyone else get on with it.

    The reporting has been ridiculous as well. I'm sad that this lady died, but I don't think it's completely accurate to say she had no underlying conditions: Mother, 65, with no underlying health problems dies from suspected coronavirus | Daily Mail Online. And this death wasn't Corona after all: Chloe Middleton: the coronavirus death that wasn’t - spiked


    [1] How likely are you to die of coronavirus? - UnHerd

  5. #945
    shabu is offline Starting Strength App Developer
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnst_nhb View Post
    Have you ever been to Japan?
    Lived in korea for 2 years, been to japan a few times.

    The culture there is to get home, get changed into inside clothes.

  6. #946
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    Quote Originally Posted by shabu View Post
    I

    Japanese particularly, are far more hygenic. No shoes inside, no outside clothes worn inside, rigorous bathing culture. Plus the high usage of N95 masks.
    I would just like to say (living in Japan) I am very definitely fully clothed as is the rest of the country when we are in our homes.
    Indeed, we take off outdoor shoes here when we enter the home, and when go into the gym outdoor shoes are off at the entrance and we are only allowed to wear specific 'indoor training' shoes inside not what we trundled in with.
    Yes, near religious washing of hands, gargling and alcohol sprays have always been a feature of life here, and just for clarity I have also never seen a genuine N95 grade mask here in public - but certainly 8 out of 10 people (including me) uses a bog standard disposable mask. Whether that is the difference here, I guess we will find out in time.
    My gym is still open with reduced hours (closing at 6pm) alcohol sprays all over the place and temperature taken on entry..

  7. #947
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunoLawerence View Post
    I know you are attempting an insult here, but I found this post to be hilarious. How much nonsense and unfounded accusations can you possibly fit into 3 lines?

    First, I was unaware of the bureaucratic duties associated with my job. Do I work in administration, am I a politician? I work with, diagnose, and treat patients directly; i.e I am literally on the front lines of this in the hospital. Suggesting that I have no skin in the game is interesting. What are you going to say when PPEs are rationed (increasing risk of infection to myself and other colleagues as well as the patients we treat) as the hospitals overflow. How much more "skin in the game" do I need? On top of that we are even going to be asked to work outside of our chosen specialty as needed. Oh wait, even though my job is safe, other people that I know aren't so lucky. I literally just got off the phone with my mom 5 minutes ago and gave her an offer to help her with any bills she has over the next several weeks/months. Then again, I must only be thinking about myself during this time.

    BTW, the description of the business endeavors you listed above would be classified as essential, and those businesses stay open. I personally don't want to go to work and have to triage who gets a vent as is currently happening in many hospitals right now. Given your reluctance to adhere to the current recommendations, please allow these decisions to be easier and refuse a vent for yourself if you were to wind up hospitalized for any reason in the upcoming months, covid-related or otherwise. Please allow the resources to be used for those you potentially infected if you want to talk about cowardliness and honor.

    I swear, even though it may not seem like it, I did laugh when I read your post.
    1) People usually just laugh at jokes. So I’m taking it that your response means that you likely feel insulted. So my attempt was not just an attempt now was it?...

    2) You are unaware of the bureaucratic duties associated with your job. So you never have to fill in forms or give reports to anyone then?

    3) When PPE is rationed, I’d say your procurement department mismanaged the budget and did not show the kind of foresight or nimble enough reactivity that other entities in the free market exhibit.

    4) I’ll wait to see if and when hospitals overflow to comment on this and also the piles of bodies which died because of coronavirus, not with coronavirus.

    5) I suggest you need a lot more skin in the overall game of life than you currently and flakily shed into it.

    6) Do you want a medal of honour for being kind to your mom? Because no one has ever been kind to their mom in history before.

    7) “I must be only be thinking about myself during this time” - we can at least agree on that.

    8) Amazon listed the delivery of refrigerators on the restricted items list in the UK. This will cause job losses for smaller businesses involved in the manufacture of these products somewhere along the production and fulfilment line. But hey, you’re guaranteed job and wage protection is safe, so who cares?

    9) You don’t want to go to work and triage as to who gets a vent. Are you not paid to make difficult in-the-moment decisions? We would all like the world to be perfect, but unicorn land doesn’t exist.

    10) What evidence have you got that I am not adhering to the current recommendations? I currently am, begrudgingly, while I take time to assess what happens in real time in my own personal context and in the wider context of the issue.

    11) I’ll refuse a vent after the following has taken place:

    All individuals taken into hospital with respiratory conditions who smoke do not get ventilators.

    13) I’m sure you did laugh when reading my post, but laughter is often a mask for sadness and shame. Only you know why you laugh. Or maybe you don’t.

  8. #948
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    Of course hindsight is 20/20 but here are some ideas of what I consider better solutions than those currently being implemented:

    Vulnerable Populations
    There are basically 3 responses to the virus: 1) asymptomatic 2) mild to moderate illness and 3) advanced care required. 1 requires no intervention, 2 require personal quarantine, and those susceptible to 3 require considerable isolation. 3 is generally considered as older folks, folks with multiple co-morbidities, and immune compromised folks. Extra care should be taken to ensure minimal exposure for these populations.

    Federal action: provide information and policy suggestions for handling 2 and 3
    Local action: develop, implement, and enforce appropriate policies

    Antibody Testing
    The number 1 way to accurately asses the full impact and develop appropriate statistical models is to determine what percentage of the entire population has already been exposed. Widespread antibody testing should be the #1 testing priority with a goal of 100% testing in 2 months. Instead of allocating several trillion to economic boosting that same money could be used to accomplish the antibody testing goal (and coincidentally the economic boosting goal).

    Federal action: eliminate excessive and non-sensical bureaucracy that prevents legitimate free market solutions from being implemented in a timely fashion. Distribute money appropriately to get testing done.
    Local action: implement and execute policies and incentives to achieve 100% testing goal.

    Healthcare Resource Pooling
    If human nature has shown us anything over the last several weeks it has shown that sometimes people would rather horde than share. Perhaps the medical business community is the same with equipment and supplies. Either way some areas have been hit harder than others and while those centers suffer shortages other areas have equipment that is not being used. It would be beneficial in this case for these healthcare businesses to create a pool with their equipment so that it can be easily deployed where and when it is needed.

    Federal action: develop policies and business incentives for independent healthcare corporations to pool and share equipment and supplies
    Local action: assist federal action

  9. #949
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    This whole "pandemic" does not pass the smell test.

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  10. #950
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    Quote Originally Posted by elVarouza View Post
    How many bodies will it take for “what about the flu herp derp” people to understand this is worse? We’re around 1k per day now and haven’t even gotten started. Is 5k of your countrymen and women dying every day enough? 10k? Guess we’ll find out within a couple weeks.
    Perhaps this is the wrong question. Maybe the question should be, "how many more bodies will it take beyond the normal ones generated by influenza...?" Or maybe, "how many more all-cause mortality deaths...?"

    I looked at the CDC data (using FluView) from the week ending 1/13/18 (one of the worst weeks from one of the worst flu seasons). There were 7,119 deaths attributed to influenza & pneumonia. There were 67,495 total deaths that week.

    For the week ending March 21, 2020 there were 3,261 deaths attributed to influenza & pneumonia. There were 40,002 total deaths that week.

    Please explain your understanding for why "this is worse, herp derp". We do not seem to be doing worse, but maybe I'm missing something.

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