COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 98

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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #971
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    • wichita falls texas june seminar date
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    Ah yes, the will of the people.
    Qu'ils mangent de la brioche

  2. #972
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    People visiting emergency rooms the last couple days.
    A little difficult to take seriously any claims about ERs being like "war zones"
    Confirmation.
    YouTube

  3. #973
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    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    An unimaginably important fight is about to occur between the view that the approaching economic collapse is simply 'the price to pay' for supposedly saving millions of lives, and the view that it was a disastrous mistake inflicted on us entirely unnecessarily by over-reaching governments. Whichever view prevails is going to determine an enormous part of our future.

    Extrapolate that to the whole climate issue as well. The next time a hurricane or a forest fire happens, we'll be told that heating/AC/driving/excess electricity are all "non-essential. Might be a good time to start investing in a horse and buggy so there's a way to get around once we're reduced to walking everywhere.

  4. #974
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    I'll tell you one thing, I'm at the point of being very pissed off. I was looking for work when this thing hit, and now getting hired is even harder. Combine that with the risk that I'm gonna bring this thing home to my parents even if I do get to work somewhere, and I have no recourse. I know in the way that "relief bill" is setup I'm going to be seeing about roughly 0 dollars of that free money, and I have none to begin with because I don't have savings. I am a "non essential" human being, and am starting to feel a lot like what those guys who set out in boats to kick off the Viking Age probably felt.

  5. #975
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    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    .

    We'll learn a lot over the next few days. In particular, I'm curious to see the daily death rate in New York.

    I think death occurs 2-3 weeks after infection

    The social distancing measures in New York seem to have kicked off properly on March 14th, which was ~2 weeks ago.

    Best case scenario is that the peak death rate has just passed.

    We're gonna need to wait 2-3 more days to be more confident, but here's a glimmer of hope:

    Imgur: The magic of the Internet

    If the peak indeed was yesterday, then the state may have saved itself from an even bigger shit storm by acting when it did.

    Well that glimmer of hope fizzled out pretty fast.

    Imgur: The magic of the Internet

    New York is approaching Italy.

    It appears that one of the most important things we need to pay attention to is why some communities are being hit really hard while others aren't. If we can figure that out, we might be able to start strategically relaxing social distancing measures.

    I'm well into this very good discussion between Peter Attia and Michael Osterholm (Osterholm, for those who don't know, has a lot of experience with both influenza and coronaviruses). One of the things they discuss is the fact that some places are being hit very hard while others aren't (for example, even with Italy, there's a huge variation).

    YouTube

    Quote Originally Posted by shabu View Post
    I would suggest a few theories.

    This appears to be transmitted by the air rather than by touch (or perhaps a combination of both), and the WHO has already made blanket statements that this is transmitted by touch and not by air.

    Imagine if we find out that in fact this is primarily transmitted by air and most people wouldn't be at risk if they just wore an N95 mask when out and about? This seems to be the case in Japan and Korea where masks usage is extremely high.

    Is the Coronavirus Airborne? Should We All Wear Masks? - The Atlantic


    I'd say there's a couple of other factors at play too

    The % of people who live alone is far higher in those countries - Sweden over 40% of adults live alone.

    Japanese particularly, are far more hygenic. No shoes inside, no outside clothes worn inside, rigorous bathing culture. Plus the high usage of N95 masks.
    Masks might allow social distancing measures to be relaxed. And yea, those other factors you mentioned could well be predictive of how badly a place is gonna get hit.

    I'm very curious to see how Sweden does over the next stretch. They're performing a valuable experiment right now.

  6. #976
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dsquared1969 View Post
    People visiting emergency rooms the last couple days.
    A little difficult to take seriously any claims about ERs being like "war zones"
    Confirmation.
    YouTube
    This is the dumbest “citizen journalism” I have seen. videos of empty parking lots somehow imply the medical system isn’t stressed? Did you expect bullets to be flying?

    Yes, surgical centers and other facilities are barren. Most often, because the surgical procedures usually performed there, are very consumptive of PPE. Or, the staff would need to follow unusual contact and droplet precautions, and cannot be supplied with PPE. Because it is in drastically short supply, and this does present an immediate crisis in the medical system, denials on this board notwithstanding.

  7. #977
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    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    Well that glimmer of hope fizzled out pretty fast.

    Imgur: The magic of the Internet

    New York is approaching Italy.

    COVID-19: Data - NYC Health

    Second one down. Daily counts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    This is the dumbest “citizen journalism” I have seen. videos of empty parking lots somehow imply the medical system isn’t stressed? Did you expect bullets to be flying?

    Yes, surgical centers and other facilities are barren. Most often, because the surgical procedures usually performed there, are very consumptive of PPE. Or, the staff would need to follow unusual contact and droplet precautions, and cannot be supplied with PPE. Because it is in drastically short supply, and this does present an immediate crisis in the medical system, denials on this board notwithstanding.
    And next, the funeral home system will collapse. Piles of bodies. Makeshift morgues in grocery stores. Mass graves. Bulldozers performing Last Rites. Dr. Kaul, you and your buddies better find some more bodies pretty fucking soon, because the rest of us are getting tired of this bullshit. As of today, there have been 249 people in the whole state of California who have died "of" COVID-19 -- a state with 40 million people that has closed down the 5th largest economy in the world. You fucking imbeciles cannot see the pattern here? This is the epicenter of the situation in the US, and it is tailing off right now. 10 million people have filed for unemployment, and all you can say is that empty hospital parking lots is fake news?

  8. #978
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    This graph, provided by our friend lazygun69, shows an interesting trend for the overwhelmed epicenter of western culture, NYC:

    COVID-19: Data - NYC Health
    Oh Rip, your misspelling of my username made me blush! I had no idea you had such interesting dreams about me. I'm really, really sorry though -- I'm happily married, and you are just not my type.

    Anyway, I assume the trend you were talking about is what you thought was an apparent flattening in NYC's daily death rates? That would indeed be encouraging -- except for that annoying warning that says "Due to delays in reporting, recent data are incomplete."

    How do I know that this is a problem? Well, you might want to check that link again right now. Just as an example: the number of COVID-19-related deaths occurring on 31/3 and 1/4 that were known yesterday were 180 and 145, respectively. The updated numbers today for those dates are 204 and 181. Updated with 4/3 data * nychealth/coronavirus-data@24fab60 * GitHub

    Data, eh? Just can't rely on it to support your opinion. How many times is this now that you've posted links to actual numbers that then turn out to directly contradict your interpretion of them? I've honestly lost count.

    By the way: suppose the numbers were to flatten out *right now*, at say 200 deaths a day. That would *still* mean an excess weekly mortality of somewhere around 400 deaths over *all causes* in a normal week. It's almost like people are dying *of* COVID-19, not just *with* it.... We should wait before acting though, just to make absolutely sure.

  9. #979
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    COVID-19: Data - NYC Health

    Second one down. Daily counts.
    If I'm not mistaken, that's city level, not state.

    I should have been clearer, when I said New York I meant the state.

    Here's my source, which shows cumulative deaths by state (the data isn't grouped by state, so it needs a bit of parsing)

    covid-19-data/us-states.csv at master * nytimes/covid-19-data * GitHub

    If anyone wants plots of a particular state, let me know. And if anyone wants my parsing/plotting code (python, jupyter notebook), I'm happy to share so they can make their own plots.

  10. #980
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    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    Oh Rip, your misspelling of my username made me blush! I had no idea you had such interesting dreams about me. I'm really, really sorry though -- I'm happily married, and you are just not my type.

    Anyway, I assume the trend you were talking about is what you thought was an apparent flattening in NYC's daily death rates? That would indeed be encouraging -- except for that annoying warning that says "Due to delays in reporting, recent data are incomplete."

    How do I know that this is a problem? Well, you might want to check that link again right now. Just as an example: the number of COVID-19-related deaths occurring on 31/3 and 1/4 that were known yesterday were 180 and 145, respectively. The updated numbers today for those dates are 204 and 181. Updated with 4/3 data * nychealth/coronavirus-data@24fab60 * GitHub

    Data, eh? Just can't rely on it to support your opinion. How many times is this now that you've posted links to actual numbers that then turn out to directly contradict your interpretion of them? I've honestly lost count.

    By the way: suppose the numbers were to flatten out *right now*, at say 200 deaths a day. That would *still* mean an excess weekly mortality of somewhere around 400 deaths over *all causes* in a normal week. It's almost like people are dying *of* COVID-19, not just *with* it.... We should wait before acting though, just to make absolutely sure.
    This was the link you posted. Is any of this shit progressing exponentially? Anywhere? It amazes me that you and Dr. Kaul can so thoroughly ignore the societal impacts of this charade with such persistent focus. This is because you are both immune from them.

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