COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[tallison]

U.S. population X most widely accepted model amongst epidemiologists for how far it spreads before it is self-limiting X a very conservative estimate of fatality rate (it gets worse quickly if you use the many higher numbers that are still being talked about - we still don’t know this number and it turns out the most hopeful data is coming out of Germany’s current experience with the disease - a lot will also depend on such incalculables such as how the medical services hold up.)

[Kyle Stevens]

I sense two themes here:

1. Coronavirus epidemic is really, really, really bad, and people who are not freaking out are just not appreciating how bad things are. The government and media will cover this up to lull you into a false sense of security. You should be panicking, because this may be the next Spanish Flu.

2. The government has lied to us so many times in the past, and is so incompetent, that we should not listen to their fearmongering, nor that of the MSM, who are even worse than the government. This is probably a ploy to influence the elections and we are patsies.

OK, maybe I exaggerate a little bit, but you get the point. These two points of view are kind of mutually exclusive, yet many people seem to hold both beliefs very firmly. There are enough grains of truth in both for them to be pretty compelling.

Rather than argue about the government or mask supply chains, please tell us what we should do. You have listened to the podcasts, read the blogs, scoured the instagram stories, and kept Fox/CNN/MSNBC on in the corner for weeks now. You know more about this thing than the bozos at CDC. What should I be doing every day for the next month to protect myself and my family, and why? How will it help? If you can't answer those questions your opinion has the value of a fart in the wind.

The media is doing the opposite of covering this up. I don't watch much TV and also don't go on social media much, yet I can promise that I'll get 3 notifications on my phone today about something Coronavirus. If I do turn on the TV it doesn't go 5 mins before someone telling me the sky is falling. As for our government, it frustrates me that people want them to do more. How do you stop a virus that is airborne? This shit is going to happen and 95-98% of us are going to be fine.

[Mark E. Hurling]

It's all Trump's fault. The more the media broadcasts it the bigger the attribution of blame. As the universities close in panic, it only further melts the snowflakes coming home to Mommy and Daddy's basement. Likewise the more panic and volatility in the financial markets to depress the economy. Something not fully appreciated by dems and their marketing arm in the media is that this does not help Biden or Sanders by the hysteria they have stirred up and thus closing down gatherings of crowds. Once again, shooting themselves in the foot.

[Mark Rippetoe]

It takes a lot for a story on the internet about medical issues to scare me. Joe Rogan's podcast today did the trick:

YouTube

I'd never heard of this guy Michael Osterholm PhD, MPH (Master Public Health) before but I looked him up. He's VERY well-credentialed. He comes across as very knowledgeable, logical, and extremely articulate. He's also NOT an alarmist but...he alarmed the hell out of me.

Have you listened to the Sharyl Attkisson podcast? The swine flu epidemic that was not as CDC advertised (PODCAST) | Sharyl Attkisson

You REALLY need to listen to this.

[Gerald Boggs]

What am I doing? Not much different than what I normally do. However, I should disclose that I work from home and am one of the least social animals I know. Except for the gym, library and store, my only excursions are walking up to the AT and going for a hike. Most of my work supplies are delivered and those that aren't I already have for the next few months, if not the year. That will depend on how much the virus effects my business. Since I sell my wares on-line, I don't have to interact with my clients in person. So unless civilization collapses, life for me will go on as normal.

The only change I've made is more frequent hand washing. I used to wash my hands before I left the gym, now I also wash them before I leave the house, when I get to gym, and between stations. I do the same with every place I visit. Having started those practices, I think I will continue even after the virus has run it's course.

[tallison]

Here, I believe, should be all the data and analysis you need to convince yourselves that this isn’t a political/leftist conspiracy/fit of hysteria: “Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now” by Tomas Pueyo Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo - Medium

See, for example, the slide from a Webinar by the American Hospital Association aiming to help hospitals prepare with a 450k estimate of fatalities - what exactly do you see as their angle for making exaggerated/biased/unreasonable claims?

[Mark Rippetoe]

Depends on whose data they are relying on:

https://sharylattkisson.com/2020/02/...tised-podcast/

[muntz]

I sense two themes here:

1. Coronavirus epidemic is really, really, really bad, and people who are not freaking out are just not appreciating how bad things are. The government and media will cover this up to lull you into a false sense of security. You should be panicking, because this may be the next Spanish Flu.

2. The government has lied to us so many times in the past, and is so incompetent, that we should not listen to their fearmongering, nor that of the MSM, who are even worse than the government. This is probably a ploy to influence the elections and we are patsies.

OK, maybe I exaggerate a little bit, but you get the point. These two points of view are kind of mutually exclusive, yet many people seem to hold both beliefs very firmly. There are enough grains of truth in both for them to be pretty compelling.

Rather than argue about the government or mask supply chains, please tell us what we should do. You have listened to the podcasts, read the blogs, scoured the instagram stories, and kept Fox/CNN/MSNBC on in the corner for weeks now. You know more about this thing than the bozos at CDC. What should I be doing every day for the next month to protect myself and my family, and why? How will it help? If you can't answer those questions your opinion has the value of a fart in the wind.

What should you do? just listen to the doctors:

Wash your hands for 20 seconds at a time - OFTEN
try to not touch your face
Practice Social Distancing - dont shake hands, avoid crowded places, etc.
If you feel sick call your doctor.
If you can, work from home.

But you knew all this.

It's all Trump's fault. The more the media broadcasts it the bigger the attribution of blame. As the universities close in panic, it only further melts the snowflakes coming home to Mommy and Daddy's basement. Likewise the more panic and volatility in the financial markets to depress the economy. Something not fully appreciated by dems and their marketing arm in the media is that this does not help Biden or Sanders by the hysteria they have stirred up and thus closing down gatherings of crowds. Once again, shooting themselves in the foot.

Dude....Northern Italy's hospitals are overflowing. They are engaged in a wartime-like triage. If you are over 65 or have any risk factors, GFL. Governor of the State of Washington is begging Trump to declare a state of emergency so he can get funds to help mitigate the outbreak. This is real and this is bad. Stop thinking it's politics.

[Gbraddock]

You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.
-Rahm Emanuel

[Yngvi]

Depends on whose data they are relying on:

The swine flu epidemic that was not as CDC advertised (PODCAST) | Sharyl Attkisson

Are you telling me our government is not omniscient, omnipotent and full of transparent, truthful naivete?

Say it ain't so, Mark!


Also saw the Rogan podcast. The Dr.'s opinions were very similar to what I have stated, except for his refusal to delineate death rates for high risk and low risk populations, his assumption that all data are accurate and his refusal to recognize the possibility that the source of the contagion could have been an accidental lab release (He states the is no clear evidence to support it, but there is also no clear evidence to refute it. Hence, it is a possibility until or unless the source can be clearly identified.)

One more thought: Who benefits financially from an extended and exaggerated virus panic? Academics, bureaucrats, government officials, medicare payees and media outlets all have a tremendous financial incentive; Their base salaries stay the same, they get additional payments, allocations or profits and commodities or goods they buy, like oil, travel and stocks become much cheaper.

The biggest financial beneficiary of a panic is anyone who owns large amounts of US treasuries and has been looking to lower their position. It will be interesting to see if China uses this as an opportunity to dump a portion of their treasuries.