Originally Posted by
lazygun37
[There is] a peer-reviewed article looking in detail on the outbreak on this ship. Their modelling shows that the interventions that were taken appear to have prevented the infection rate from reaching about 80% by Feb 19. The following is from the abstract: "On 3 February, 2020, an outbreak of COVID-19 on cruise ship Diamond Princess was reported with 10 initial cases, following an index case on board around 21-25 January. By 4 February, public health measures such as removal and isolation of ill passengers and quarantine of non-ill passengers were implemented. By 20 February, 619 of 3,700 passengers and crew (17%) were tested positive. ... The basic reproduction rate was initially 4 times higher on-board compared to the in the epicentre in Wuhan, but the countermeasures lowered it substantially. ... [W]e estimated that without any interventions within the time period of 21 January to 19 February, 2920 out of the 3700 (79%) would have been infected. Isolation and quarantine therefore prevented 2307 cases. ... [A]n early evacuation of all passengers on 3 February would have been associated with 76 infected persons in their incubation time." [Rocklöv, Sjödin & Wilder-Smith 2020, Journal of Travel Medicine]