COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[Mark Rippetoe]

Apparently not.

[ltomo]

Do you believe that the data are manufactured in order to sow panic and economic ruin?

It's impossible to know what the intention of the Chinese government is.

The system they use to govern their people and the historic lack of guaranteed free speech means that it is impossible to believe any numbers the Chinese government posts. Would you believe Venezuela's or Cuba's' data about the Corona Virus? Why? Why do you believe that China is giving the United States government accurate data?

The assumption in any transaction should be that parties are acting and communicating out of self-interest. China's interests are not the United State's interests.

The same rule applies to any other country we interact with.

[Kitsuma]

I carefully listen to all the daily pressers.

Dr Birx warned to not put much weight in these graphs as the testing comes online. She also warned about "the modelers" in a condescending way...and our favorite Hillary fan-boy, Dr Fauci agreed. She's spent a lot of time with modelers over the years and kind of eye-rolled / smirked with Fauci. Finally, she suggested that because this virus hit here late in the season, its season (and resulting curve) is very compressed....meaning, it should burn out before it takes over our world. I watched her twice, so I'm pretty sure I understood her.

This surprised me because despite a study claiming this virus falls apart above certain temperatures / humidities, the fear porn said that wasn't true. Now, she is saying it's seasonal. So, again, we are left knowing nothing.

Probably worth watching the daily pressers if you are into it enough to start creating graphs, reading models, etc.

My interpretation of her body language and words...she is starting to walk back the fear porn about this virus.

[ltomo]

Here's something I thought might orient this discussion, rather than allowing it to devolve into a debate where everyone talks past one another and entrenches into their position: the primary issue seems to be trust. What entities is an individual willing to put their trust into for their own individual well-being.?

My gut response is to distrust any entity outside my own family and select individuals whom I interact with day-to-day. I conjecture this is the same for most people.

My apologia: I'm very disinclined to put any trust in any other entities based on my personal experience and study of history

I apologize if I've come off as insulting, but I do want to understand why othe individuals place trust in entities beyond the ones I've desceibed.

[Yngvi]

Well, I hear that the National Guard is going to be enforcing a curfew and quarantine in Baltimore, military trucks in store parking lots in Orange County CA. Lazygun wins. That didn't take very long.

Have we crossed the Rubicon?

[Mark Rippetoe]

Perhaps.

[wiigelec]

Do you believe that the data are manufactured in order to sow panic and economic ruin?

I get the distinct impression that you are both quite young and haven’t spent enough time studying history to realize that if this were indeed the case it would be far from an unprecedented action...

[spacediver]

It's impossible to know what the intention of the Chinese government is.

I apologize if I've come off as insulting, but I do want to understand why othe individuals place trust in entities beyond the ones I've desceibed.

I hear where you're coming from, but this is less about trust, and more about cold rationality.

There are at least two competing hypotheses:

A) The Chinese data (in the chart from my previous post) is not trustworthy. In reality, the growth is not exponential, and there is no lag effect.

B) The Chinese data is trustworthy.

Here are some facts:

1: Most of the world governments believe the data from China is reasonably accurate. The WHO conducted a joint in depth joint data gathering mission which included people from all parts of the world. You can read the report here.

2: The exponential rise in cases is being seen around the globe.

3: Italy is suffering tremendously. The covid-19 death toll in italy for yesterday alone was 627. Just pause and think about that. It seems that the UK is not far behind.

All these facts make it more likely that the second hypothesis is true.

Can you think of a compelling reason why this data is untrustworthy? And you need to do better than to lazily proclaim that China is untrustworthy and an enemy. You must come up with some scenario that explains how the above 3 facts are compatible with your proposed scenario.

[David A. Rowe]

It's possible I've already had it in November. I can't get ahold of DHEC or the CDC to see if they would be willing to do a draw to check for antibodies. And to be entirely fair, Rip, the National Guard is necessary to enforce anything in Baltimore. Hell, they might have to send in the Marines.

[Rob Waskis]

Interesting paper: Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project

“We estimated an average of 389 ,000 (uncertainty range 294, 000-518, 000) respiratory deaths were associated with influenza globally each year during the study period, corresponding to ~ 2% of all annual respiratory deaths. Of these, 67% were among people 65 years and older.”

That’s about 40 times higher than COVID-19, for those keeping track at home.