COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events - Page 38

starting strength gym
Page 38 of 2467 FirstFirst ... 28363738394048881385381038 ... LastLast
Results 371 to 380 of 24666

Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #371
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Posts
    311

    Default

    • starting strength seminar december 2022
    • starting strength seminar february 2023
    • starting strength seminar april 2023
    Quote Originally Posted by spacediver View Post
    I wish you no harm, Itomo, and I think it's best we abstain from engaging each other for now.
    Nope. Your attitude and the people who think like you are directly threatening to harm me.

    What are our options for ending this shut-down? Non-compliance? Contact law enforcement? Find out where my city leaders live and protest while exercising my second amendment rights?

  2. #372
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Location
    Valley of the Sun
    Posts
    1,488

  3. #373
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Los Alamos, NM
    Posts
    2,897

    Default

    When everything is a crisis and/or an existential threat, e.g. climate, the constitution, Russian meddling, the hysteria had to reach a tipping point.

    This virus is the proof that we were right all along. Not a nuke, or an asteroid, or a global killing disease. But globalism, Trump, racism, sexism, and income inequality, had to be stopped at any cost.

    So we’ve readily thrown our economy into the toilet as well as our freedom and liberty over the flu because it sucks being wrong all the time.

  4. #374
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    RS WY
    Posts
    980

    Default

    I'm 49. So no...
    Then I stand corrected and my apologies to you as well...

  5. #375
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Posts
    311

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    Fuck. I know I said I wasn't going to post again, but I am getting so fucking tired of seeing people literally ignore the evidence in front of them on the grounds that (a) an expert presented it, and (b) it doesn't mesh with their biases.



    Jesus Christ -- literally nobody is saying that. What the fuck would actually convince you that you might be wrong about something? Evidence is clearly not one of those things.

    I'm serious: please tell me what would convince you that we have a serious problem on our hand, serious enough to warrant Draconian interventions like shutting down businesses, restaurants etc.

    If the answer is nothing, fine. That's obviously a totally irrational position, but then at least we don't have to try to have a rational discussion anymore.

    If the answer is 100,000 deaths (or pick whatever number you like): that literally just means you have completely failed to understand the concept of exponential growth. That's not a hypothetical thing, it's not something to do with testing -- for fuck's sake, the basic stats of epidemics isn't hard. One person infects two, two infect four, four infect eight... And 100,000 deaths become 200,000 deaths before you have even the slightest chance to react.



    I'm 49. So no, I'm obviously just a naive commie. But again: who the fuck has actually claimed that politicians haven't done stupid or evil things before? What does that have to do with anything?

    You have the case numbers and death numbers -- and their evolution -- right in front of you. You could literally work out for yourself on a piece of paper that, unless we somehow manage to suppress this thing fast, it is going to be a shit show. In fact, you don't even need to do that -- you could just watch the TV to see what's happening in Italian hospitals. And in a few days I'm pretty sure the "but that's just Italy" argument won't sound as convincincing anymore (even though it's so obviously based sound statistical concerns, like "Italians are all fat, unhygienic old smokers who live with a crappy socialist health care system"). Because then the reports will be from New York City.




    You never answered my question about this: if COVID19 is half as bad as those stupid experts think it is, do you honestly think we won't have an economic collapse, regardless of whether we keep restaurants open right now? Right now, people have to be coerced to comply with social distancing interventions. But I have a hunch this won't be a problem at all anymore once enough people have died. And what's your solution to this? Are you then all of a sudden going to become a government interventionist and force people to go to work and spend money in restaurants? Because I don't think they'll be all that keen to leave the house anymore at that point. So my question is what you'll have gained by keeping things open another 4 weeks or whatever? As near as I can tell, the answer is lots of dead people.

    So it seems to me that the only semi-rational and ethically defensible position for you must be that you are certain that this is all just fear-mongering, i.e. that there is no realistic chance that this outbreak is anything like as bad as the people who study outbreaks say. But all you have ever provided as evidence for such a position is whatever random blog post or Medium article you could find that happens to agree with what you obviously know must be true. At least I've actually done my homework.

    There is a great saying in German:

    "Weil nicht sein kann, was nicht sein darf"

    There isn't a pithy translation for it, but if you're interested I'm sure you can find out what it means. I thought tallison might enjoy it, at least. I think it gets at the heart of why so many otherwise smart people are so desperately looking for any justification -- no matter how tenuous or irrational -- that might allow them to cling to what they want to believe.

    Incidentally, I hope you all get that my tone about isn't panic -- it's frustration. On a personal level, I'm not panicking at all. I'm just sitting in my middle class house, following the guidelines to work remotely, with a reasonably (but not stupidly) well-stocked pantry. I don't even think that the supply chain of food and toilet paper is likely to fail completely. So I'm good. I just think it would be incredibly sad if lots of lives would be unnecessarily lost and ruined.

    Anyway, I've never hoped more that I'm wrong about literally everything.
    Nothing gives the government or anyone else the right to force me to do something without my consent.

    If people want to self-quarantine, they can.

    The right to freely associate is more important than life.

  6. #376
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    RS WY
    Posts
    980

    Default

    A decent attempt IMO to bridge the seemingly opposing arguments pervasive in this discussion:

    YouTube

  7. #377
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    95

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr.T View Post
    S Korea 8800 cases, 102 deaths = 1.1%
    Portugal 1280 cases, 12 deaths = 0.93%
    Iceland 473 cases, 1 death = 0.21% with a purely statistical 95% confidence interval of 0.01% to 1.1%
    US 22,177 cases, 278 deaths = 1.3%

    Case fatality ratio calculated by Verity et al based on data from China = 1.4%
    Infection fatality ratio calculated by Verity et al based on data from China = 0.7%
    Infection fatality ratio assumed modelling paper by Ferguson et al = 0.9%
    Case fatality ratio of the seasonal flu = <0.1%
    Do you even bother to think about your own posts? Every single number you have quoted is consistent with the roughly 1% the dreaded experts have been using as typical in modelling and forecasting. Nobody is using Italy's 8% for that purpose. And that 1% is about 10x the CFR of the seasonal flu.

    Iceland is indeed by far the lowest, but it also has the lowest case number, and hence by far the largest statistical uncertainty. Tell you what, I'll make your argument for you: Germany seems to have -- sorry, Rip; fuck, this is a hard habit to break -- definitely has a much better established, and still abnormally low, raw CFR of about 0.4% (84 deaths, 22213 cases). Which is still about 4x higher than the CFR of the flu. And believe it or not, all those stupid experts actually are trying really hard to figure out why that is, because that's important for understanding and fighting the disease. If we're lucky, the low number is a better measure of the true rate (because Germany tests more/better), but there are probably (sorry again) other factors also. For example, Germany's communist health care system turns out to be pretty bloody awesome, and the population who first brought the disease from Italy included a lot of young skiers with high resilience.

    See: it's actually possible to look all all the evidence, not just the cherry-picked bits that support whatever conclusions you've already drawn. You should try it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr.T View Post
    The numbers are just not that bad. Sorry.
    Yeah, I'm sorry too.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr.T View Post
    Shutting down the service/educational economy doesn't reduce spread. Community transmission (bars, restaurants, stores, concerts, schools) is very low. READ THE DATA.
    Even household transmission is only 10%.
    READ THE DATA
    To quote Rip: "these are not factual statements". I would love to READ THE DATA , but unlike those dreaded experts with their stupid peer-reviewed publications, you have not even told us where you are getting this from. I literally just looked, because I thought that 10% number was interesting, but I cannot find it anywhere. By contrast, I have already provided references for actual published calculations of R0, the infectiousness of COVID-19. These numbers are roughly twice that of the seasonal flu.

  8. #378
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Posts
    311

    Default

    California and New York are sharply reducing arrests and releasing criminals from jail early. Other states that attempt a full lockdown will run into the same problem. The governors of these states do not have the manpower to enforce a lockdown without calling in the National Guard.

    If the governors want to escalate the situation to that level, it's better it happens sooner rather than later. We can still organize and communicate with our neighbors right now. It's time to stop reacting and start being proactive.

    Our rights are being infringed on an unprecedented scale. The leaders of our states do not care about our well-being.

    Call their bluff. Reopen your business and resume normal activities. I don't see any other option at this point.

  9. #379
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    95

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Charles View Post
    When everything is a crisis and/or an existential threat, e.g. climate, the constitution, Russian meddling, the hysteria had to reach a tipping point.

    This virus is the proof that we were right all along. Not a nuke, or an asteroid, or a global killing disease. But globalism, Trump, racism, sexism, and income inequality, had to be stopped at any cost.

    So we’ve readily thrown our economy into the toilet as well as our freedom and liberty over the flu because it sucks being wrong all the time.

    Just so I'm clear on this. The people who are telling us to "throw our economy into the toilet as well as our freedom and liberty" are the epidemiologists and public health officials studying the outbreak. So those are all climate-activist, Hillary-loving, globalist-hating, anti-Trumper social justice warriors? I genuinely did not realize this. Could you point me to the relevant source?

  10. #380
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    1,124

    Default

    starting strength coach development program
    Quote Originally Posted by Yngvi View Post
    This thread now has about 15 pages of posts that essentially say: You cannot and should not think for yourself. You must have faith in the doctrine of your betters; They love you, keep you safe and know how best you should live your life.
    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    Jesus Christ -- literally nobody is saying that.
    In all fairness, you did say:
    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    So maybe, just maybe, we should trust the people who actually do know what they are doing and who are trying to prevent unnecessary loss of life and economic damage.
    But really, your argument seems to keep coming back to faith in "the data".

    Let me ask this: how many cases of COVID-19 are there in the US? If you check the CDC website (as of Friday - they apparently don't work weekends even when there is a world ending pandemic), they say "at a glance" that there are 15,219 cases. It also says that there are 14,561 cases "under investigation". That leaves 658 cases that I assume are "confirmed". However, if you look further down on the page you can find "COVID-19 cases in the United States by date of illness onset". These numbers add up to 1889. If you check the WHO SITREP, it says there were 10,442. I'm told Johns Hopkins is a good source of data for this, and their number is considerably higher. Of course, they break their number down into active cases and confirmed cases, which includes "presumptive positive cases", so really two or three different numbers. Google has a different number. So does USA today and every other main stream media site.

    The data is shit.

    Here's another one. According to the WHO as of today, Germany has had 18,323 cases with 45 deaths. Italy has had 47,021 cases with 4032 deaths. Spain has had 19,980 cases with 1002 deaths. Iran has had 19,644 cases with 1433 deaths. The US has had 15,219 cases with 201 deaths. Do you have a hypothesis for why there are such different mortality rates? Age? Air pollution? Personal hygiene? Smoking? Healthcare quality? Ambient temperature/humidity? Genetics? Data collection/reporting? Some combination?

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •