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Thread: COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

  1. #541
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    • starting strength seminar april 2024
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gerald Boggs View Post
    Anyone else notice that no one in the US is being listed as recovered. Even Italy shows more recovered then dead. I did find a few local news sources, but the big maps show once you go in, you don't come out.
    Coronavirus Update (Live): 417,693 Cases and 18,605 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

    US is in fact recovering

  2. #542
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    Quote Originally Posted by VNV View Post
    Since I know nothing about epidemiology, I will ask: Is it proven that most epidemics /do not/ follow a normal distribution? Truly interested in current thinking. Wouldn’t the central limit theorem apply particularly well to such datasets, I.e. sum of a bunch of random variables tends to a normal PDF, regardless of the original PDFs?
    I was also interested. I can imagine several scenarios in which outbreaks would not obey the CLT.

    However, nearly all of the literature I have seen has treated it as a normal distribuiton.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Kaul View Post
    Mark, ventilators are reserved for people who will not die anyway. Especially now. You can look up the recent changes to Italy’s triage policy. These are elementary considerations.

    The ventilator shortage is real. Auto manufacturers are retooling to make them. This shortage is not some insurmountable challenge. In a short few weeks, you can link to blog posts about the irrational panic over medical equipment, and possibly be correct.
    Elon Musk asked for specific information on which hospitals and ICUs are currently experiencing shortages. As far as I have seen, the governors of NY or California only provided generalities and political talking points in return. If any substantive information is released about specific shortages, we can say the shortage is actually real. Until then, it is just speculation about a future shortage.

    Quote Originally Posted by lazygun37 View Post
    Your article contained none of that information. Good work.

  3. #543
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    We’re Failing Doctors - The Atlantic

    Perhaps some food for thought for those suggesting that we "just get this over with."

  4. #544
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    More evidence of hysteria:

    The British government is acting on the apparently unquestioned advice of a research group at Imperial College London led by Neil Ferguson. The group have been widely condemned as doom-mongers, particularly following their advice during the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak which led to the slaughter of millions of healthy cows and sheep, now considered to be a gross and disastrous overreaction which crippled British agriculture. This same group have encouraged the draconian measures currently in force based on their own modelling of the virus.

    In contrast, a research group at the University of Oxford have published their own contradictory modelling, suggesting, as many of us suspected, that the virus has been spreading in Britain since mid-January at the very latest (and most likely before), that up to half of the British population may already be infected, that the vast majority of cases are totally asymptomatic, and that fewer than 0.1% of total patients may require hospitalisation.

    Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study

    Now, these people may be right or they may be wrong. But the fact that many prominent experts are expressing serious doubts about the severity of the pandemic is surely enough to make any thinking person question what is going on. It might just invite some reason back into the picture: 12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic

    The more I read about this, the more I am convinced that we will eventually look back on the last few days as an utterly shameful moment in our history, when we threw off all rationality, torpedoed our own economies, caused millions to suffer needlessly, and ran screaming hysterically into the arms of Big Brother. In a great rush of collective madness we did more damage to ourselves than the virus itself ever could have done.

  5. #545
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    Quote Originally Posted by porcopedico View Post
    It takes a while to recover. More than to die. Just be patient and you will be in the same situation as Italy in less then 2 weeks
    I'm truly sorry about your home country. It's a tragedy. But measured by % of cases that die, $1000 says your wrong. Interested? Total Italy cases today, 69176, deaths 6820 (9.8% death rate), population 60.3 million (infection rate 0.114%). Total US cases today 44183, deaths 544 (1.2% death rate), population 328 million (infection rate 0.013%). Italy is quite different than the US.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gbraddock View Post
    My question phrased a little differently but similar is:

    What percentage of people with coronavirus who ultimately need a ventilator survive?
    Much better statement, braddock. Thanks.

  6. #546
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    A lot of posters here seem to think this whole thing boils down to the economy vs the lives of a few elderly.

    But as has been pointed out multiple times, there are risks to the economy (arguably worse risks) if we don't act now, and buy ourselves some valuable time. And this is a harm that is above and beyond the raw death toll of the elderly.

    This point needs to be addressed, to assess its merit, or lack thereof.

  7. #547
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    Spacediver, every year there is a flu season, and every year people die. If we address it in this new and exciting way, we cease to have modern economies and all the wonderful toys that come with it.

    From: Just a moment...

    Dr. Joel Kettner says:

    I have never seen anything like this, anything anywhere near like this. I’m not talking about the pandemic, because I’ve seen 30 of them, one every year. It is called influenza. And other respiratory illness viruses, we don’t always know what they are. But I’ve never seen this reaction, and I’m trying to understand why.[…]

    I worry about the message to the public, about the fear of coming into contact with people, being in the same space as people, shaking their hands, having meetings with people. I worry about many, many consequences related to that.[…]

    In Hubei, in the province of Hubei, where there has been the most cases and deaths by far, the actual number of cases reported is 1 per 1000 people and the actual rate of deaths reported is 1 per 20,000. So maybe that would help to put things into perspective.

  8. #548
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jovan Dragisic View Post
    The economy was gonna die anyway. This is a time of precedents. In the West, alone, you had a simultaneous equity bubble, a credit crunch, unfunded liabilities 7 or 8 times the magnitude of national GDPs, coupled with a decline in industrial production and a trade war that the confidence man you guys elected president decided to lose. That was even before there was any news from the Chinese wet markets. Add to that a complete halt of production in three of the world's top production regions and a universal drop in demand in the past three months, and what you have is Western economies having to be bailed out by China in the best case scenario, or sweeping national defaults, followed by civil wars, maybe even a world war in the worst. I won't even go into the possible collapse of the petrodollar system.

    There is a sliver of chance that the complete stop in demand for Chinese goods will push their GDP close to negative growth, which might scare their leadership enough to enter into some kind of global restructuring of debt and the monetary system, so that the whole thing doesn't turn into a nuclear fuckfest. Paradoxically, the entire world is lucky you don't have a Democrat for President, because otherwise the entire American answer to the oncoming crisis would be to give ALL THE REMAINING MONEY to their Wall Street friends, so there is still a fool's hope.
    This is an interesting point that I won't argue. Such is the nature of capitalism, in any case--boom and bust--such that the statement "the economy was gonna die anyway" is never not true. The problem with shutting the whole thing down over a false alarm it that that process becomes greatly accelerated, such that a rapid decline in GDP is inevitable. If left alone, the market most certainly was going to decline anyway. Lets say it declined in the way it did in 2008. That was a 1% drop in GDP that happened over the span of a year or so. At the end of the day, sure a few folks had to move back into apartments because of some fuckboy bankers, but nobody really got hurt by this and certainly nobody died as a direct result.

    Compare 2008 to the 1929 crash. 1929 was an overnight bust that resulted in a 15% drop in GDP. How many millions of people died during the 10 year depression and subsequent World War that precipitated the global turn-around? Who fucking knows. Waaaaay too many is the answer.

    So, if given the choice--2008 or 1929, which would you rather, if you were in the West, Jovan?

  9. #549
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jovan Dragisic View Post
    The economy was gonna die anyway.
    The economy was not going to "die." The economy needed a nap, or maybe even a good night's sleep, but death does not happen to a functioning capitalist economy unless socialists take it by force. As others have said here, food for thought.

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    Now, these people may be right or they may be wrong. But the fact that many prominent experts are expressing serious doubts about the severity of the pandemic is surely enough to make any thinking person question what is going on. It might just invite some reason back into the picture: 12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic

    The more I read about this, the more I am convinced that we will eventually look back on the last few days as an utterly shameful moment in our history, when we threw off all rationality, torpedoed our own economies, caused millions to suffer needlessly, and ran screaming hysterically into the arms of Big Brother. In a great rush of collective madness we did more damage to ourselves than the virus itself ever could have done.
    Another excellent article, thanks.

  10. #550
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rippetoe View Post
    Stattos: The graphs from 3 weeks ago predicted how many deaths by 3/25? How many are there as of today?
    Anybody?

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