This one may be a better source for number and info on deaths of despair and how they are tied to recessions or economic damage: Long-Term Trends in Deaths of Despair - Long-Term Trends in Deaths of Despair - United States Joint Economic Committee
If you become too trusting of me, I might get sloppy and make mistakes. I read several papers. Here is one: https://www.tfah.org/report-details/adsandmillennials/ It quotes the opioid increase as 500%. I did see %450 somewhere that I can no longer find.
Some of us have been saying this for a while now. My guess is social unrest will be what breaks it eventually.
Imagine telling them they are fucked, AND the government is coming to take your guns AND you must be at home while they do it AND you may not gather to protest these actions.
This one may be a better source for number and info on deaths of despair and how they are tied to recessions or economic damage: Long-Term Trends in Deaths of Despair - Long-Term Trends in Deaths of Despair - United States Joint Economic Committee
Half an hour into this. So far, very good interview.
Surprised nothing about the high transmissibility of the virus has been discussed (yet). That seems to be an important part of this story, and affects the (temporal) death rate independently of case fatality risk.
I do hope that reason reigns over both panic and pathological skepticism, and that communities take this opportunity to watch closely, collect relevant data, and adapt decision making in order to optimize outcomes. As Ionnidis says: "we need to think smart"
(e.g. communities that have younger, healthier populations may not have to enact such extreme social distancing measures, and may not need as much in the way of medical supplies).
We'll learn a lot over the next few days. In particular, I'm curious to see the daily death rate in New York.
I think death occurs 2-3 weeks after infection
The social distancing measures in New York seem to have kicked off properly on March 14th, which was ~2 weeks ago.
Best case scenario is that the peak death rate has just passed.
We're gonna need to wait 2-3 more days to be more confident, but here's a glimmer of hope:
Imgur: The magic of the Internet
If the peak indeed was yesterday, then the state may have saved itself from an even bigger shit storm by acting when it did.
I understand what it means for daily life, we're living it right now here in WA. My concern is with people losing hours or actually being laid off. And the businesses who don't have patrons anymore.
Over here our state gov *might* loosen things up after April 8th. We're only 2 weeks in and already feeling it. If someone told me to keep it up for 8 more I'd tell them to get their head checked.
I agree, this is wrong and completely unnecessary. A lot of restaurants, bars, and social event venues are not coming back. I was just clarifying that the entire state was not shut down. Criticism of the Governor's actions are deserved, but shouldn't be exaggerated. A lot of places that have already shut down, have done so locally or by their own choice and in response to the fear mongering, not from any order of the state.
Oddly, my sales are about the same as last year with income up 19%. I won't really know how this all plays out until summer.
The paper you linked seems to draw the opposite conclusion (absence of a link from deaths of despair to economic trends):
Also, the recent rise in “deaths of despair” appears to be driven almost entirely by opioids, starting in 2000 and rising steadily through boom and bust. I think there are other factors here besides recession.Finally, it is worth emphasizing how challenging the trends in this paper are for theories that explain rising “despair” by referring to either economic trends or social capital trends. It is very difficult to find such trends that improve over the 1970s and 1980s, then worsen after either 1990 or 2000.