COVID19 Factors We Should Consider/Current Events

[bikesandcars]

The number of new deaths per day in Italy as reported by the WHO has been very flat (i.e. not growing) for 10 days in a row (mean of 756).

I'm not sure what to make of the US fatality numbers, but they sure as hell don't look like they're growing exponentially when you plot them. The last ten days were: 201, 69, 202, 211, 107, 252, 425, 444, 293, 455. Trending up to be sure, but not exponentially so from what I can see.

It's also interesting that the number of cases in the Western Pacific, Eastern Mediterranean, Africa, and South East Asia regions still do not appear to be growing exponentially.

The number of new cases in Europe has fallen three days in a row from a high of 37,646 to 31,141.

This should all be good news, unless you make your living scaring people with headlines and quotes taken out of context.

Source: 2017 CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/n...r68_09-508.pdf
All causes: 2,813,503
Diseases of heart :647,457
Malignant neoplasms :599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries):169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases:160,201
Cerebrovascular diseases :146,383
Alzheimer disease:121,404
Diabetes mellitus:83,564
Influenza and pneumonia:55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis:50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide):47,173
Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis :41,743
Septicemia :40,922
Essential hypertension and hypertensive renal disease:35,316
Parkinson disease:31,963
Pneumonitis due to solids and liquids:20,108

Corona Virus 3/31/2020:2,395
Projected:?
Impact on other causes (replacing other causes?)Unknown

Source: Situation reports

20200401cases.jpg20200401deaths.jpg

[BrunoLawerence]

Wrong wrong wrong. There are a million books, articles, etc on this. Here's one.

Robot Check

Are you under the impression that a book can't be found stating the opposite. Also, could you give me the page numbers in that book that specifically address what I said previously? I mean you wouldn't simply be posting a "basic economics" textbook so that you could lazily state something is wrong without forming any type of fact based opinion.

This question has been addressed several times. If this thing were actually as big a threat as the hysterical people say it is, the governors wouldn't need to put the entire country under de facto house arrest. People would be taking these precautions on their own. It's not, which is why people are pushing back and not following these ridiculous guidelines.

Try trusting the man in the street to take care of himself for once. People know what's best for themselves, not the politicians and talking heads on the news/entertainment channels.

I can't speak for where you are at, but where I am people are voluntarily doing this themselves. I am not seeing a lot of pushback except for online message boards. For example, I was trying to purchase some weights from a guy from craigslist (they are very difficult to find right now, even from online retailers) and he texted me and said that he wasn't selling them right now due to the virus. Perhaps there is more pushback is less densely populated areas that haven't been hit with the problem yet.

[Rob Waskis]

You are aware that yesterday alone there were 300 covid related deaths in NYC alone right?

I'm not sure where you are getting your numbers from, but according to the CDC, there were 293 deaths on 3/30 in the entire country (from the update on 3/31). Maybe we're getting our days mixed up, but if there were 293 deaths in the whole country, how were there 300 in NYC?

I'm certain the numbers are even higher today.

A lot of people seem to be certain about a lot of things these days. Most of those things turn out to be wrong.

[BrunoLawerence]

No deaths are "acceptable." 60 million deaths per year will occur, "acceptable" or not. This is the difference between what we want and what will be. Perhaps you never learned this.

Please just stop. You know exactly what I mean. Once again, comparing this to the seasonal flu (which you yourself have compared this too multiple times), at what level or mortality would you start to become concerned. What would make you yourself stay home without being told?

This is gibberish. There are no good data on rates of infection with COVID-19. Iceland is the best, and as has been pointed out earlier, the cruise ship data was flawed. If "In a population of 100 people, if 50% are symptomatic that would mean 50 people are symptomatic." then 50% of people are not "sick." Why waste time typing this meaningless shit?



What was the number of deaths in NYC on March 31 of 2019? How has that differed from deaths on March 31 for the previous 20 years? I asked you nicely to leave, and you won't leave.

I can understand how you have so easily missed the point given your willingness to provide incomplete data sets that you think somehow supports your opinion. Also, I have no need to address the question of number of deaths in NYC question. I was simply responding to a previous post. Why didn't you provide this same type of analysis regarding a post comparing the number of deaths in a single hospital in NYC from Covid vs the total number of deaths in NYC as a whole? Shouldn't you want to correct this given your level of intelligence? The previous poster can correct his own severely flawed data analysis.

[wiigelec]

Interesting tidbit:

“Cuomo said the state has ordered 17,000 ventilators from China (at $25,000 each)...”

As NYC Coronavirus Deaths Top 1,100, Trump Warns Next 2 Weeks May Bring Historic Pain – NBC New York

For you math haters out there:

17000 x 25000 = $425,000,000

425 million dollars should be a nice injection into a struggling economy...

...just not ours...

[Mark E. Hurling]

Finally some reason in the local politics:

“The damage to the economy, the state, and society may be worse than the disease, all while people get the disease anyway,” he wrote. “We must prepare to live with this disease while maximizing economic activity.”

State lawmaker argues need to re-open economy amid coronavirus pandemic | Wyoming News | trib.com

In that vein, it appears the New Resistance has already been underway elsewhere and elsewhen.

These guys got double secret probation. SIU Carbondale's Delta Chi fraternity suspended after violating COVID-19 directive | SIU | thesouthern.com

Then there's Rhode Island. Rhode Island door knocks in search of fleeing New Yorkers

For the latter, it could be deconstructed in at least a couple of ways, some good, some not so good. It could represent a push back against the Borg mentality imposed by De Capo dei Capi, Fredo's marginally smarter brother in this case Don Cuomo. It could also be seen as even more oppressive and panicky. Albeit,perhaps with fewer restrictions imposed on RI's own citizens. Not an easy one to call.

In any event, some people are deciding not to go quietly into the dark night of oppression.

[Luke Cook]

Here are some interesting results from the UK Office of National Statistics, which may add to the discussion here.

Statistically, so far the numbers of deaths in the UK, even with Covid-19 are in line with what is expected each week, every year.

These numbers imply that Covid-19 specifically has a very low mortality rate (at least in the UK). Unless I've misunderstood something?

Interesting to note the number of deaths by week, last year compared to this year. Week 6 to 10 inclusive in 2019 saw more deaths than the same time period this year (2020).

Even if you look up age groups (which you will see in the link below) the pattern remains the similar.



*Source:*
Public Health England - All-cause mortality

*2020* *2019*

Week 1: 12,254 10,955
Week 2: 14,058 12,609
Week 3: 12,990 11,860
Week 4: 11,856 11,740
Week 5: 11,612 11,297

Week 6: 10,986 11,660
Week 7: 10,944 11,824
Week 8: 10,841 11,295
Week 9: 10,816 11,044
Week 10: 10,895 10,898

Week 11: 11,019 10,567

stastics can be verified from Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

[Mark Rippetoe]

[*]In the 7 days ending March 30, 2020, the number of COVID-19-related deaths in NYC was 811.

Definition? Criteria? Source?

Do you actually know this number?

No, I was asking. The media are showing photos of piles of bodies and mass graves, and I would like to know how much excess mortality there is in NYC.

[lazygun37]

Definition? Criteria? Source?

coronavirus-data/case-hosp-death.csv at master * nychealth/coronavirus-data * GitHub
GitHub - nychealth/coronavirus-data
COVID-19: Data - NYC Health

[lazygun37]

Statistically, so far the numbers of deaths in the UK, even with Covid-19 are in line with what is expected each week, every year.

These numbers imply that Covid-19 specifically has a very low mortality rate (at least in the UK). Unless I've misunderstood something?

*Source:*
Public Health England - All-cause mortality

*2020* *2019*

Week 1: 12,254 10,955
Week 2: 14,058 12,609
Week 3: 12,990 11,860
Week 4: 11,856 11,740
Week 5: 11,612 11,297

Week 6: 10,986 11,660
Week 7: 10,944 11,824
Week 8: 10,841 11,295
Week 9: 10,816 11,044
Week 10: 10,895 10,898

Week 11: 11,019 10,567

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

There are two related misunderstandings here (which I think are common on this thread):

• In the early stages of an outbreak, case and death numbers increase roughly exponentially. That means the numbers go from apparently negligible to "holy shit" in quite a short time. It also means that your best chance to act effectively is when the numbers are still small -- i.e. when lots of people think you're crazy for making a big deal out of such tiny numbers.
• Deaths are a "lagging indicator". It takes time for people who get infected to die. Your "week 11" corresponds to the week ending March 13. By that date, the total number of COVID-19 deaths in the UK was 177, and the number who died that day was 33. Those numbers are too small to see in your stats. Right now, on April 1, the total number of COVID-19 UK deaths is 2252, and the daily number -- i.e. the number who have died in one day -- is 563. So, give it another couple of weeks, and that excess mortality will show up just fine.

https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.htm...f8fe2a7a2bda11